The NBA play-in tournament is here. I know this may be an unpopular opinion, but I love single-elimination games in professional sports (especially basketball — shades of March Madness, anyone?). I’m looking to put together a 2-0 sweep of the board in tonight’s play-in action, and I’ve dug up a pair of spots to exploit with the assistance of OddsShopper Premium. Let’s get into my NBA player prop picks for Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis. I also recommend you read my NBA play-in tournament betting guide.
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NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jonathan Kuminga & More
Jonathan Kuminga Player Prop
We’re getting Jonathan Kuminga at a massive discount because of his late-season injury and head coach Steve Kerr’s history of funky rotations, especially in the postseason. But a simple glance at the last game between the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings should reveal to Kerr that Kuminga has a huge role to play tonight.
The last time these teams met, Kuminga racked up a monstrous 31 points in 30 minutes — and he did it off the bench. While he shot an unsustainable 63/50/83, we don’t need him to come close to that number tonight to cash his points over, which is set to 13.5. We can buy the over for the low price of -125 at ESPNBet. They also have the 14.5 priced for +100, which is beating the -102 at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Kuminga’s success in his last game against the KIngs came almost entirely in the paint and at the charity stripe. He racked up 10 field goals in the paint (and five made free throws), which speaks to Sacramento’s beatable interior defense. While the Kings gave up the fewest points per game to centers this year (19.5), they also gave up the fourth-most to power forwards like Kuminga (25.2).
I suspect Kerr will slide Kuminga into the starting lineup (or into a larger role off the bench) for this one, especially given his tendency to avoid playing rookies for extended stretches in the postseason (Dave Loughran has more on this tendency in his Underdog Fantasy breakdown for today). That will likely mean fewer minutes for Trayce Jackson-Davis at the five, sliding Draymond Green over to the small-ball five with Kuminga at the four.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Kuminga Over 13.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
For the best price currently available, check out our Jonathan Kuminga points live odds page!
Trayce Jackson-Davis Player Prop
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s dive into the bet I saw trading at the top of OddsShopper Premium this morning — and it’s related to the pick we just discussed. I use the model to build a robust and diversified portfolio of prop bets each day to insulate myself from variance. The key is getting as many bets with positive expected value (+EV) down as you can, and this Trayce Jackson-Davis under should be on your card. If you’re interested in the tools that I use, use promo code “POSITIVE” to get 50% off your first week ($7.48) or month ($24.98)!
I already laid out the case against Jackson-Davis’ minutes, but the model wants action on this prop for market-based, not projection-based reasons. Our +EV betting tools index the odds across the market; adjust for factors like hold and book sharpness; and use those numbers to generate a breakeven price (called “true odds”) that, when exceeded by the odds available at a sportsbook, render a wager a +EV bet. That’s the case with this Trayce Jackson-Davis under today, as we are beating the true odds of -137 by buying this bet for -125 at FanDuel:
You’ll see that Jackson-Davis is trading at odds of -135 or worse to stay under the 7.5 everywhere else, including Pinnacle, a sharp book (-161), which is why the true odds of this wager are -137. FanDuel has posted an outlier prices that would be smart to exploit.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as they transformed mine! Our results aren’t the product of variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Trayce Jackson-Davis Under 7.5 Rebounds -125 at FanDuel
For the best price currently available, see our NBA player props live odds page.
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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