Let’s go — we stayed hot on Tuesday, scoring another 3-0 sweep by cashing an over for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and unders for Jerami Grant and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Today, Wednesday, February 14, I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Coby White, Scottie Barnes and Tyrese Maxey. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to OddsShopper Premium. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out my guide to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my Twitter, my TikTok or my OddsShopper expert picks page, my full NBA cards sit at +27.4u on the season. I also have a bet against the spread that you can read about in today’s odds analysis. If I haven’t convinced you to start using our market-based betting system, just take a look at the NBA player prop markets that OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Scottie Barnes & More
Coby White Player Prop
The Chicago Bulls will visit the Cleveland Cavaliers in both teams’ final game before the All-Star Break. While that situation usually leads me to bet overs, I’m fading Coby White here because the impending rest means Cleveland won’t have to worry about preserving defensive resources. The Cavaliers rank second in defensive rating this year (110.3) but are first over the last 15 games (105.7).
White’s shot profile suggests he should struggle versus Cleveland. He pretty much takes only above-the-break 3’s and easy shots in the paint — corner 3’s have disappeared from the mix since Zach LaVine went down — which is a problem versus Cleveland. The Cavs allow the fewest above-the-break 3’s (8) and the fewest points in the paint (43.9) over the last 15.
White’s points prop is trading between 20.5 and 21.5, depending on the book you use. However, White’s last matchup with the Cavs saw him score only 18 points in 38 minutes while shooting 33/20/78 — and that was with LaVine still in the mix to draw defensive attention away from him. Lock in the under 21.5 for -125 at DraftKings before it gets bid off the board.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Coby White Under 21.5 Points -125 at DraftKings
Scottie Barnes Player Prop
The Indiana Pacers and Pascal Siakam will visit the Toronto Raptors tonight. Although the Pacers are known for their fast pace and shaky defense, they rank fifth-best in assists allowed per game this year (24.7). OddsShopper Premium and I agree that there’s an edge on the assists market for Scottie Barnes today, and our model has an ROI of 10.4% on NBA player prop bets for points at PointsBet this season when you wager 12 hours before tip. for more information about the prop markets the model is beating the most, check out our breakdown!
Our NBA betting tools want action on this under today because of the clear market inefficiency. The under 7.5 is priced at -110 (52.4%) at PointsBet, which is worse than the true odds of -122 (55%). Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 7.5 for -134 (57.3%). OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NBA betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “NEWUI30” at checkout for 30% off! If you’re skeptical of their profitability, check out our NBA player prop results or testimonials from readers like you below!
Skeptical of our market-based model’s reasoning? Trusting the market to make your picks instead of projections can be frightening at first, but our data reveals it to be a profitable long-term strategy.
Need another reason to place this bet? Barnes is averaging 5.7 assists per game versus the Pacers since last year. Indiana’s defense has also allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game to power forwards (4).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 Assists -110 at PointsBet
Tyrese Maxey Player Prop
I locked in an under for Tyrese Maxey last night as soon as the market opened. His points prop is trading at a lofty 27.5 for his home date with the Miami Heat. While he’ll benefit from not having to play another game before the All-Star Break — and from Miami’s defense playing its second game in two days — 27.5 is just too high of a number for Maxey without Joel Embiid.
This season, Maxey is averaging only 25.2 points per game without the superstar center, with atrocious shooting splits of 42/33/78. With Miami’s defense now able to lock in the star guard, I don’t expect big things from him tonight, even with Jimmy Butler sidelined. The Heat held Damian Lillard to just 16 points on 38/29/100 without Butler last night.
The over/under trends point to some value here, too. The under is 4-3 when Miami plays without rest this season and 10-5 when the club plays with a rest disadvantage. Miami is also 9-4-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage.
Maxey has scored 28 or more points in only five of his 15 games without Embiid this season. He was held to 12 points with shooting splits of 20/13/50 versus Miami when Embiid sat on Christmas Day — and he played 44 minutes in that one! Fade Maxey tonight at a bloated number.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Tyrese Maxey Under 27.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023-24 NBA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NBA season — make sure to check out the rest of our NBA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
