The weekend is almost here, and bettors looking to make a bit of spending money — or to increase their bankroll before football resumes this weekend — can turn to a big NBA slate for plenty of options. The following player props offer a solid return, although bettors can always check out OddsShopper’s tools and Stokastic’s player prop model for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 18
Jordan Clarkson O/U 18.5 Points
Jordan Clarkson, meet Mikal Bridges. Clarkson had been avoiding coverage from Bridges against the Suns over the last few years because he came off the bench and played alongside Donovan Mitchell. That’s no longer the case, and he’ll draw tight defensive coverage from an elite perimeter defender in Bridges.
The Phoenix Suns have shut down opposing shooting guards and small forwards this season. They have allowed the fewest points per game to both positions — 18.3 and 17.6, respectively. The Suns rank 26th in pace and third in defensive rating (108.9), so opposing shooters just haven’t had the opportunities necessary to go over their totals.
Clarkson has averaged 17.9 points per game this year, so the books are requiring him to have an above-average night to cash the over. But Clarkson has stayed under this total in exactly half of his starts, including his last three. Although he finds himself in a higher-volume role this year, Clarkson remains an inefficient shooter and has a true shooting percentage of only 54.5%. That trails every starting big in Utah’s rotation and both Collin Sexton and Malik Beasley.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jordan Clarkson UNDER 18.5 Points (-102 for 1.02 Units) at FanDuel
Andrew Wiggins O/U 2.5 Made 3’s
The New York Knicks have struggled at perimeter defense this year, especially against opposing wings. They have allowed the second-most made 3’s to small forwards (3.4) and the fourth most to power forwards (2.8). With Andrew Wiggins spending all of his minutes rotating between those positions, he finds himself in a fantastic spot to cash plenty of shots from downtown tonight.
The Knicks haven’t favored a particular type of 3-point shot. They have allowed the fourth-most corner 3’s (4.1) and fifth-most above-the-break 3’s (9.9) per game. Likewise, Wiggins has taken shots from wherever he can get open — he ranks second on the Warriors in attempted corner 3’s (1.4) and fourth in attempted above-the-break 3’s (4.8).
Wiggins has averaged exactly 2.5 made 3’s per game this season. He has beaten this number in three of his last five games. He made three triples in his first game against the Knicks last year on 3-for-6 shooting and then made two in his second on 2-for-4. With the Knicks playing at a faster pace and Wiggins hitting triples at a solid rate, the juice for this line feels far too high at +155.
Best NBA Player Prop: Andrew Wiggins OVER 2.5 Made 3’s (+155 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
Jalen Smith O/U 13.5 Points
The Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers should combine for plenty of points tonight. Both teams rank top 1o in pace and bottom 6 in defensive rating. Unsurprisingly, the books have set the total for this game to a lofty 236 — the highest on the slate. Bettors can find plenty of value on the overs for both teams, but locking in the over on Jalen Smith in the plus money makes for one of the best NBA player prop bets on the board.
The Houston Rockets haven’t played well against power forwards this year. They have allowed the fifth-most points per game to the position (24) and the eighth-most made 3’s (2.7). Their defensive struggles have especially extended to the paint, where they allow the eighth-most points per game (51.9). With Jalen Smith capable of cooking his opponents from both the interior and the perimeter, he should post a solid stat line against the Rockets.
That said, the books have jacked this number up to account for Houston’s fast pace and poor defense. Smith has averaged only 11 points per game this year. However, two outlier low-volume games skew Smith’s averages — he has actually gone over this total in seven of his 13 starts.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jalen Smith OVER 13.5 Points (+100 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
