My palms are sweaty just typing this — Games 7 abound today, and I don’t know if I’ll be able to handle the pressure. So how about I make it worse for myself and add a same-game parlay sweat? Sounds exciting — let’s make our move on a bet365 NBA parlay bet for Timberwolves-Nuggets. Here are the best NBA same-game parlay picks, targeting a couple of Nuggets with the help of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bet365 Parlay With Aaron Gordon & More
Leg #1: Aaron Gordon Under 4.5 Assists
You know the drill: We follow Loughy ‘s advice and lean on unders more often than not when building our NBA SGPs. That’s where the value is pretty much every day, and Timberwolves-Nuggets is no exception. We’re also going with all Nuggets bets and leaning a bit more heavily on bets with higher expected win rates, according to the Parlay Builder.
It’s perhaps hyperbolic to say the T-Wolves “neutralized” Gordon’s playmaking in Game 6 — he only recorded one fewer assist than he had the game before. However, it was Gordon’s first under on 4.5 since Game 2 and only his second in the last seven games.
Now, one could point to the Nuggets having arguably the worst shooting performance by a good team in NBA Playoff history and say Gordon would have hit the over had Denver merely shot poorly instead of god-awful. Then again, we could also argue that Minnesota has figured out how to limit Gordon and Nikola Jokic’s playmaking by shutting down the paint.
It’s apparent that at least a large portion of Denver’s chances tonight will come down to hitting outside shots. Similarly, Gordon’s shot at five-plus assists will also live or die by teammate shooting. The Nuggets have been a streaky 3-point team; another down game points to another under for Gordon.
OddsShopper is strongly favoring that outcome, giving Gordon a 60% chance of recording no more than four assists.
There is some juice at -140, but the high expected win rate helps to mitigate that and actually makes this bet the No. 1 Timberwolves-Nuggets prop in terms of EV, checking in at +3.6%.
Leg #2: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 9.5 Points
Speaking of the disaster class of shooting from the Nuggets in Game 6, we head over to Caldwell-Pope and his points. That’s not entirely fair; Caldwell-Pope was 2-for-6 last game, which somehow made him one of the best shooters for them in that game. Still, that led to 9 points and gave him his fifth single-digit scoring game in the last seven.
With the exception of Game 5 in this series, Caldwell-Pope has not been much of an offensive factor. It’s been a bit surprising since, again, Minnesota’s strategy is getting the paint on lockdown with Rudy Gobert and forcing Denver to shoot from deep. Caldwell-Pope is one of the best catch-and-shoot options the Nuggets have. But in key games this postseason he has scored 6 or less six times and only hit 10 or more four times in 11 games.
Maybe this is the game he goes off and Jokic finds Caldwell-Pope a bunch and he hits five 3’s. Recent history, however, suggests he’ll be a defensive presence and not much else.
OddsShopper has this prop as individually +EV by 2.6% thanks to a solid 57% win rate on passable -125 odds. As part of the parlay, those odds get us over +200 for this bet365 two-legger, and the total win expectancy is 34% — that’s about as good as we could ask for with a +200 NBA player prop SGP.
NBA Parlay Today: +208 at bet365
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