The NBA rolls out with another small 3-games slate this Thursday, including an exciting Western Conference matchup between Denver (14-10) and Portland (13-11). Both teams dealt with injuries throughout the season, though Damian Lillard missing half of Portland’s games has arguably been more meaningful. Lillard played 32 minutes in Portland’s last game after missing seven straight games so there aren’t major concerns about his playing time tonight (projected for 33.5). The best Nuggets-Trail Blazers NBA player props will take into consideration the injuries and overall expected player usage.
Josh Hart and Drew Eubanks are probable for the home team, while Michael Porter Jr. is out again for the Nuggets after missing the team’s the last seven games. Denver is currently favored by 0.5 to 1 point, and the game’s total is set at 228. In what projects to be a competitive game, look for Aaron Gordon and Damian Lillard to have fruitful outings. Be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best NBA player props and best bets.
Best NBA Player Props | December 8
Aaron Gordon O/U 1.5 Assists
Kevin Durant (five), Marcus Morris Sr. (three), LeBron James (eight), and Jalen Smith (three in 16.5 minutes) all went over their assists prop playing against Portland lately and we can expect Aaron Gordon to do so as well tonight. Portland allows its opponents 26.3 assists per game (sixth most) and opposing power forwards have done exceptionally well distributing the ball against them, averaging roughly five assists per game, most in the league.
Gordon only had one assist when the teams previously met on October 24th, one of only handful of games he failed to record two or more assists. Gordon averages 3.6 potential assists and 2.3 assists per game, going over 1.5 assists in 15 out of 21 games this season, including in three of the last five. Gordon is projected for 2.2 assists in tonight’s game and the over on his assists prop has a 59% win percentage. Despite a very favorable matchup, we only need Gordon to have an average outing for the over to hit. At current odds (best odds as of time of writing are -140), backing Gordon to go over his assists prop should return value.
Best NBA Player Prop: Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 Assists (-140 At PointsBet)
Damian Lillard O/U 31.5 Combined Points and Assists + O/U 3.5 3-Pointers
Denver has one of the league’s best and most efficient offenses, however they aren’t elite defensively. The Nuggets have the fifth worst defensive rating (114.5) and are only middle of the road in points allowed to opponents (113.7, 17th fewest) thanks to their slow pace (eighth slowest). Denver limits its opponents to the fewest rebounds per game (40, tied with Cleveland) but also allows them to average roughly 26 assists per game, 12th most in the league. Furthermore, the Nuggets are especially vulnerable to opposing point guards, allowing the third most assists (9.42), fourth most points (26.36), and ninth most made 3’s (3.04) per game to the position. Damien Lillard took advantage of this favorable matchup when the teams met earlier this season (31 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, and 4 made 3’s) and will look to do so again tonight.
Lillard averages 25.8 points, roughly 10 3-point attempts, 3.5 made 3’s, and 6.9 assists (12.3 potential assists) per game. He went over today’s assists (6.5) and combined points + assists props (31.5) in seven out of the 12 games he played this year and over his points (24.5) and threes (3.5) props in six. Lillard is only projected for 24.4 points and roughly six assists in tonight’s game, however the implied odds for him going over his combined points + assists prop (-120) are lower than his hit rate of that prop and the matchup is right. Furthermore, while Lillard’s made threes line is rather high (3.5), getting +135 for him to go over it is quite appealing given his hit rate, shot volume, and favorable matchup.
Best NBA Player Prop: Damien Lillard OVER 31.5 Combined Points and Assists (-120 At Multiple books) + OVER 3.5 3-Pointers (+135 At DraftKings, 0.5-0.75 units)
