The NBA is back with 13 games following a short 1-day hiatus. This massive slate provides several exciting matchups, including the one between the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans in Chicago.
Focusing on the game’s first quarter, New Orleans is currently favored by up to 1.5 points with the total set at 56.5. While both teams play slow and have an offense that clicks well early in games, New Orleans’ defense is significantly better and should propel them to win the game’s first quarter.
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Best Pelicans-Bulls Bet: First-Quarter Spread
Starting with the home team, Chicago has the 13th-worst first-quarter net rating, losing by an average margin of 1.1 points. Their defense is the main culprit – despite playing at the sixth-slowest pace, the team allows opponents to shoot extremely well (58.8% effective FG%, third-best in the league) and score an average of 29.9 first-quarter points, seventh-most in the league. Notably, opposing teams convert on almost half of their 3-point attempts (49.1%) and average 4.4 made 3-pointers per opening quarter facing the Bulls, most in the association in both categories.
Offensively, the team has the eight-best rating (115.8) despite a middling effective FG% (54.2%), scoring an average of 28.8 first-quarter points (13th-most). While that’s not a bad offensive output, it’s just not enough to compensate for their lackluster defense.
Unlike Chicago, New-Orleans’ first-quarter defense is elite and ranks first in the league (99.6). Largely thanks to that defense, the team has the league’s third-best first-quarter net rating (13.8), winning by an average margin of 3.5 points. The Pelicans play at a slow pace (eighth-slowest) and limit opponents to 49.4% effective FG%, the second-lowest mark in the league. As a result, opposing teams score an average of only 25.2 first-quarter points against the Pelicans, fewest in the league. Notably, they limit opponents to only 2.7 free-throw attempts and 2.6 made 3-pointers per opening quarter, fewest and second-fewest in the league, respectively.
The team is also doing well offensively, having the 12th-best first-quarter rating while scoring 28.7 points per opening quarter, 15th-most in the league. They don’t tend to take (7.2) or make (3.2) an abundance of 3-pointers however they did just attempt 10 (making 7 of them) in the opening quarter of their most recent outing vs the Pacers, another team with a bad perimeter defense. The Pelicans rely on points in the paint (13.4, ninth-most) and points off turnovers (6, fifth-most) to generate points early in games, two areas that Chicago’s defense is actually decent at. While that’s no ideal, their willingness to shoot as much threes as they did vs. the Pacers is encouraging considering Chicago’s 3-point defense to date.
New Orleans lost the first quarter to Indiana after allowing the Pacers to make six 3-pointers (out of 13 attempts), roughly double their season average. A similar scenario in tonight’s game is always possible but unlikely given the Pelicans’ perimeter defense so far this season and that Chicago’s 7.4 3-point attempts and 2.7 made 3’s per opening quarter are fifth- and fourth-fewest in the league, respectively.
Chicago will need an outlier performance for them to win the quarter – maintain their offensive output, play better defensively, and hope for another poor early defensive performance from New Orleans. The same cannot be said for the Pelicans who will need to simply play to their own level to come out on top.
Betting on the Pelicans to win tonight’s opening quarter (-0.5, best odds as of time of writing are -110) should prove beneficial.
Best Pelicans-Bulls Bet: Pelicans -0.5 First Quarter Spread (-110 at FanDuel).
