The Atlanta Hawks host the Boston Celtics in one of 10 games on tonight’s NBA slate. Focusing on the game’s first quarter for Celtics-Hawks predictions, Boston is currently a slight favorite (-0.5), with the quarter’s total set at 60.5. The Hawks struggle to generate points early in games. Be sure to check the OddsShopper tool for the latest NBA odds, player props and projections.
Best Celtics-Hawks Prediction: First Quarter Team Total
Atlanta is a below-average first quarter team, mainly because of their anemic offense. Playing at a middling pace (12th-fastest first quarter pace), Atlanta loses the opening quarter by an average margin of 1.1 points and has the league’s 13th-worst first quarter net rating (-3.5). The Hawks have the 12th-best first quarter defensive rating (110.5) and allow just a 50.2% first quarter effective field goal percentage (fourth lowest), 7.5 3-point attempts (third fewest) and 2.6 made 3’s (fourth fewest) per opening quarter. They do send opponents to the free-throw line at an alarming rate – opposing teams average the fourth-most first quarter free-throw attempts (6.1) and made free throws (4.9) against the Hawks. Altogether, opposing teams score an average of 28.5 first quarter points against Atlanta (15th).
Offensively, the Hawks have the league’s sixth-worst first quarter offensive rating, scoring only 27.4 first quarter points (seventh fewest). They have a very low 48.7% effective field goal percentage (fourth worst), averaging the fewest 3-point attempts (6.4) and fewest made 3’s (1.6) per opening quarter. Instead, Atlanta relies heavily on points in the paint, scoring 14.1 such points in opening quarters (fifth most). This doesn’t bode well for them tonight, facing a Boston team that is among the league’s best at limiting opponent first quarter points in the paint (11 points per opening quarter, tied for fifth fewest).
Boston is a dominant first quarter team. The Celtics win the first quarter by an average margin of 2.4 points and have the league’s sixth-best first quarter net rating (9.4). While not playing at the elite defensive level they did last season, Boston still has the league’s 11th-best first quarter defensive rating (109.9). Boston forces its opponents to shoot inefficiently (50.9% first quarter effective field goal percentage, sixth worst) and is very good at limiting opponent points in the paint. Since the team plays much faster this season (ninth-fastest first quarter pace compared to sixth slowest last season), opponents average 28.6 first quarter points against them (14th most).
The Celtics thrive offensively, posting the fourth-best first quarter offensive rating (119.2) while scoring an average of 31 first quarter points, third most in the league. They have a very efficient offense (fourth-highest effective first quarter effective field goal percentage) that relies on 3-pointers and free throws to generate points. Boston takes and makes the third-most first quarter 3-pointers (10.6 and 4.2, respectively) while also averaging the third-most first quarter free-throw attempts (6.1) and most free throws made (5.5).
Boston is the superior first quarter team and holds the edge here. While it could be challenged to convert 3-pointers against Atlanta’s tough perimeter defense, the Celtics should be able to find success going to the free-throw line. On the other hand, Atlanta should be hard-pressed to do what they do best (points in the paint). Thus, taking Boston’s first quarter moneyline (best odds as of time of writing are -115) is one way to tackle this matchup. Nonetheless, both the quarter’s total (60.5) and specifically Atlanta’s team total (29.5) look higher than they should be, making the under on both appealing as well. While all three bets are viable, the preferred one is Atlanta scoring fewer than 30 points in tonight’s opening quarter (-106).
***Marcus Smart, who was probable to play, was ruled out minutes before publishing, and Derrick White will probably start instead of him. While today’s lineup only has a small sample of 509 minutes, Boston’s offensive output is better and its ability to limit opponents to a low true shooting doesn’t take a hit. Still, Smart’s absence introduces some level of uncertainty, so reducing bet size to half a unit is advisable.
Best Celtics-Hawks Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Under 29.5 First Quarter Points (-106 at FanDuel)
