The Dallas Mavericks hosts the Los-Angeles Clippers in one of only five games on tonight’s NBA slate. This is the back end of a back-to-back set for the Clippers however none of their starters played more than 29 minutes in their blowout win over Houston yesterday. This should be a fascinating matchup between arguably the league’s best first quarter offense (Dallas) and the league’s best first quarter defense (Los-Angeles). Based on how each team has fared in games’ opening quarters, tonight’s first quarter total (51.5) seems too low. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for the latest NBA odds, player props and projections.
Best Clippers-Mavericks Bet: First Quarter Total
The Clippers play outstanding first quarter defense and are among the league’s best first quarter units. Largely thanks to their league-leading first quarter defensive rating (98.3), Los-Angeles wins games’ opening quarter by an average margin of 2.4 points and have the league’s fifth-best first quarter net rating (9.7). Despite playing relatively fast (11th-fastest first quarter pace), the Clippers limit opponents to the ninth-worst effective field goal percentage (51.7%) and only 25.4 first quarter points, second-fewest in the league. Their offense on the other hand has been less than stellar. While they do have the fifth-best first quarter effective field goal percentage (58.5%), the Clippers score an average of only 27.8 first quarter points (10th-fewest in the league) and have the seventh-worst first quarter offensive rating (108.1). Despite Los-Angeles’ excellent defense and subpar offense early in games, the average first quarter score in their games is 53.2, higher than today’s total.
The Mavs are also a very good first quarter team (sixth best first quarter net rating), especially offensively. Despite playing very slow (second slowest first quarter pace), Dallas scores an average of 30.5 first quarter points, fifth most in the league. This is largely the result of their league-leading, efficient offense – Dallas has the league’s best first quarter offensive rating (124.5) and third best first quarter effective field goal percentage (59.8%). However, their first quarter defense is pedestrian at best and is a far cry from what it was last season. They are currently tied for the 10th-worst first quarter defensive rating (they had the eighth best last season), allowing opposing teams to score an average 28.3 first quarter points, which is still 12th-fewest in the league (but roughly two points more than last season). In all, Dallas wins the first quarter by an average margin of 2.2 points and despite their slow pace, the average first quarter score in their games is 58.8 (almost 6 points higher than today’s total).
The Clippers are only middle of the road defending the three so Dallas should find success in an area they rely on offensively (the Mavs make 3.8 3-pointers per opening quarter, eighth most). While the Mavs’ ability to limit opponents 3-poinetrs could take away one of the Clippers’ best offensive tools (Los-Angeles scores 3.6 3-pointers per opening frame, tied for 10th-most), Dallas’s overall first quarter defense leaves much to be desired. When also factoring in each team’s season-long averages and offensive efficiency, tonight’s 51.5 first quarter total look lower than it should be.
Best Clippers-Mavericks Bet: Over 51.5 First Quarter Points (-113 at FanDuel)
