Things are looking down right now for the Miami Heat. After four straight losses — and a myriad of major injuries to shooters — they are down to eighth in the East and need to start turning things around. The opponent is weak, but this is a big game. Let’s dive into the Heat-Pistons player prop odds to identify the best bet for Friday’s game, specifically looking at Duncan Robinson. If you’re seeking some more action, check out the rest of our NBA player prop picks, our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos. Also, you can always check out Isaiah Sirois’ guide to NBA player prop betting as well!
Duncan Robinson Player Prop: Best Heat-Pistons Bet Today
Player Prop: Duncan Robinson O/U 3.5 3-Pointers
There is no doubt that Robinson is experiencing a resurgence this year. After a couple of down seasons where his 3-point percentage dipped drastically — and his poor defense made him unplayable — Robinson is back up above 40% at volume from deep.
But even during his best shooting years, Robinson was only making slightly more than 3.6 3’s per game, which is where his line is tonight.
The things that could push bettors to take his over against Detroit are, well, Detroit — one of the worst teams and defense in basketball — and the injuries to Tyler Herro and Kevin Love. Those two have combined for 4.6 3’s per game (combined is doing some heavy lifting there, as Herro makes 3.3 a game by himself).
However, Herro also hasn’t played since Feb. 23, and though Robinson has seen somewhat of an uptick in that time, he is making 3.0 a game. He is 5-for-10 on this over in this Herro-less stretch. The point is, Robinson is not suddenly sniping four-plus 3’s night in and night out without Herro and Love.
OddsShopper is seeing the most value from FanDuel, as it has Robinson under 3.5 3’s at -132 compared to the -147 from sharp book Pinnacle. The 59% win expectancy is putting the True Odds on this under at -144, so any book below that is considered +EV (DraftKings, Tipico). FanDuel is blowing them away, however, at 3.8% +EV.
Heat-Pistons Player Prop: Duncan Robinson Under 3.5 3-Pointers (-132 at FanDuel)
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