Fred VanVleet Player Prop: Best Wizards-Rockets Bet (March 14)

The Washington Wizards may not be a good basketball team, but not all bad teams are created equally. The Wizards have struggled mightily in the paint, allowing an NBA-high 59.5 points in the paint per game this year, and will continue to struggle now that Daniel Gafford is gone. Over the last seven games, Washington has allowed an NBA-high 62.4 points in the paint per game.

With poor interior defense has come depressed perimeter volume — the Wizards are allowing the seventh-fewest above-the-break 3’s per game this year (8.8) on the 12th-fewest attempts (25.2). Since the All-Star Break, they have allowed the sixth-fewest makes (8.4) on the 13th-fewest attempts (25.1).

Fred VanVleet almost exclusively shoots his 3’s from above the break — he averages 2.6 makes from that zone per game as opposed to 0.4 from the corner. With him averaging only 3 made 3’s per game — and with him having stayed under the 3.5 in his last two contests — I love fading him on this market at odds of -105.