Today’s NBA slate offers up some exciting games, including a battle between the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns on NBA on TNT. However, there are some better spots for bettors hunting out value. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Thursday, including a Fred VanVleet prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, March 14
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Tobias Harris Bet
Harris is sitting with a line of 10.5 for rebounds and assists against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight in a game that has a 7.5-point spread.
The 76ers forward has his worst rebounding rate (9.1) since the 2017-18 season, and that’s without Joel Embiid for the last 30 games or so.
Harris only averages about five potential assists per game, and with this beat-up Sixers squad, he’s unlikely to turn those into a lot of converted assists.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a top-8 rebounding team in the NBA, and Harris will be in a dogfight with Giannis tonight.
There are two things that will likely happen: Harris gets in foul trouble or the 76ers get blown out, both of which lead to Harris staying under this total.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Tobias Harris Under 10.5 Rebounds & Assists -120 at Tipico
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Bradley Beal Bet
The Phoenix Suns will visit the Boston Celtics before heading south to play the Charlotte Hornets in an east-coast swing. This spot is a brutal one for Phoenix, as the Celtics will get some extra nights off after this game to boot. Boston is a dominant 29-3 at home this year, and the team hasn’t lost in the Garden since February 1.
We’re fading Bradley Beal in this spot. If the game gets away from Phoenix early, they could opt to keep their star players fresh for tomorrow’s game against the Hornets. That means Beal’s range of outcomes is biased toward the under, and with his points, rebounds and assists prop (PRA) trading all the way up at 27.5, I’m eager to get action on the under.
Beal is averaging 17.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists alongside Devin Booker this season, good for 26.3 PRA. With the Celtics ranked second in defensive efficiency (110.4) and fourth in rebound rate (51.9%) this year, Beal may struggle to contribute in the box score.
I considered just playing Beal’s points because he relies somewhat on interior scoring to maintain his points-per-game average. Beal trails only Jusuf Nurkic in both shots made (2.7) and taken (4) per game in the restricted area, where Boston has allowed the third-fewest made field goals per game this year (15.3). The absence of Kristaps Porzingis may open up some more interior looks than usual, but the team’s efficient defense should be enough to keep Beal under this lofty total.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Bradley Beal Under 27.5 PRA +100 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Fred VanVleet Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting tools recommend getting action on this Fred VanVleet under before all the sharp bettors bid it down: BetMGM lists a bet for -105 when the rest of the market is trading at -110 or lower — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it down at -129.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel uncomfortable at first, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
BetMGM has been a solid book for the model this year, but we’re cleaning up at DraftKings (for a $22,750 profit on all bets placed two hours before tip) and bet365 (6.8% ROI on all bets placed two hours before tip). Curious about which other books we’re beating? Read the full story on that here.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Fred VanVleet Under 3.5 3-Pointers -105 at BetMGM
NBA Expert Pick #4: Best Oklahoma City Thunder Bet
The Thunder are one of the best teams at covering the spread in the NBA. At 39-24-2 ATS, they are an ATM more than most.
The biggest thing that stands out is their 22-9 ATS record at home, including their 19-7 ATS record as a home favorite.
To say revenge is in the air is an understatement: the Thunder will avenge that 32-point loss earlier to Dallas, especially with the injury concerns on that side of the ball.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Oklahoma City Thunder -105 -110 at PointsBet
