Two of the Western Conference’s most intriguing teams, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Dallas Mavericks, will face off in the Smoothie King Arena tonight. The NBA odds reveal that the Mavericks are slight road favorites, likely due to a few big injuries to New Orleans. Bettors should head to FanDuel Sportsbook to tail these Mavericks-Pelicans odds and picks.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Pelicans Odds
Mavericks Dominating in Pick-and-Roll
The Mavericks are off to a solid 1-1 start. Their lone loss came against the Phoenix Suns in dramatic fashion after the team blew a 17-point halftime lead. The Mavs then turned things around with a dominant 41-point win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Luka Doncic leads the team in scoring with 67 points, but teammate and pick-and-roll partner Christian Wood has scored 50 of his own.
Doncic actually leads the NBA in points per possession in the pick-and-roll (1.56). Although he has used that part of his game less frequently than other players, like Ja Morant or Donovan Mitchell, the Mavericks have been efficient with it thus far. Doncic has parlayed his success in the pick-and-roll to 33.5 points and 8 assists per game.
Although it's a small sample, the Mavericks lead the NBA in net rating (+20.5) by virtue of their top-ranked offense (124.1) and third-ranked defense (103.6). Bettors need a larger sample to know how trustworthy this Mavericks team is, but their 2-0 start against the spread is encouraging.
Banged-Up Pelicans Without Ingram
The Pelicans will be a fun team to watch with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum on the floor together this year. Unfortunately, Ingram is in the NBA's concussion protocol, and Williamson is questionable with hip and back injuries. His teammate, Herbert Jones, is questionable with a knee hyperextension.
Regardless of whether or not Williamson and Jones can play, losing Ingram is enough to sink the Pelicans. His on/off stats reveal that the Pelicans were 8.1 points better with him on the floor last year, a team high among key members of the rotation, and that they are 35.9 points better with him on the floor this year, another team high.
The Pelicans have started the year a solid 2-1 against the spread and rank sixth in net rating (+9.7). Their offense ranks an impressive third (118.3), but their defense ranks a pedestrian 13th (108.6).
Mavericks-Pelicans Odds & Pick
Doncic and the Mavericks went 3-1 against the Pelicans last year. Dallas won by an average margin of 9.8. Although three of those games came before the Pelicans acquired McCollum, they still offer a meaningful point of comparison. Doncic even scored 49 points against the new-look Pelicans in February. His starting center and pick-and-roll partner, Dwight Powell, racked up 8 points of his own.
The Pelicans have some solid perimeter defenders, but they lack rim protection. Nets center Nicolas Claxton racked up 13 points against them in the opener, Mason Plumlee scored 8 against them in their next outing, and Jarred Vanderbilt, Lauri Markkanen and Kelly Olynyk all did plenty of damage from the paint in their most recent game. Although starting center JaVale McGee is yet to score more than 6 points in his limited role, McGee scored 18-plus points twice against Jonas Valanciunas and the Pelicans last year. This looks like a sharp buy-low spot for Doncic's starting pick-and-roll partner.
Bettors should wager a unit on McGee and another unit on the Mavericks to cover.
Final Mavericks-Pelicans Pick: JaVale McGee Over 6.5 Points (+108) at FanDuel
Final Mavericks-Pelicans Pick: Mavericks -4.5 (-105) at FanDuel
