The NBA Play-In Tournament continues tonight with two high-stakes matchups, and if you’re looking for instant action, there’s no better sweat than betting the NBA first basket: One possession and you’re either celebrating or reloading. But finding value in this volatile market requires more than a hunch. We’ve analyzed the first basket stats to uncover two players who offer the best expected value on their first basket scorer props. Here are your top NBA first basket predictions for tonight.
NBA First Basket Scorer Tonight: Stats & Predictions
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
Zaccharie Risacher isn’t a household name yet, but tonight he might offer the most undervalued NBA first basket scorer bet on the board. DraftKings has him at +900, which implies just a 10.5% chance to score first. But based on usage trends and early play involvement, models give him closer to a 12.5% chance.
Miami has a strong tip-off win rate thanks to Bam Adebayo, but Atlanta holds its own with Onyeka Okongwu. Even if Miami wins the tip, Atlanta’s fast-paced offense and Risacher’s role in early sets keep him live. The Hawks have been using him more in scripted possessions — especially as defenses focus on Trae Young — and he’s responded with early scoring in several recent games.
Risacher isn’t a dart throw. He’s one of the top 5 Atlanta players in first-shot frequency and has quietly become a reliable perimeter threat right out of the gate. The market hasn’t caught up. At +850, he’s a rare example of a first basket scorer today who’s truly mispriced.
NBA First Basket Scorer Today: Zaccharie Risacher (+900, DraftKings)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Klay Thompson may be overshadowed by Anthony Davis, but his first basket stats are elite. He projects to score the first basket around 12% of the time, yet you can get him at +1000 in the market tonight.
While Memphis often wins the tip with Zach Edey, Dallas can still capitalize early. Even when the opening play isn’t drawn up for Thompson, defenses collapsing on Davis can leave Thompson wide open for a quick 3. He doesn’t need much time or space, and Dallas uses that to its advantage.
The books are pricing Thompson as a secondary option, but his role in first-possession sets says otherwise. At 10-to-1 odds, you’re getting a clear +EV opportunity on one of the most dangerous catch-and-shoot players in NBA history.
NBA First Basket Scorer Today: Klay Thompson (+1000, FanDuel)
