The NBA rolls on tonight with a six-game slate as the playoffs are quickly approaching. March Madness has captured the attention of basketball fans over the last few weeks, distracting many from the playoff hunt in the NBA, opening up plenty of value for sharp bettors to exploit. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Monday, including a Jusuf Nurkic prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA betting tools or our NBA betting promos! You can also check out our guide to NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Monday, April 1
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Wendell Carter Jr. Bet
I’m starting today’s expert picks column with a bit of an oddball play — we’re not using OddsShopper Premium’s +EV calculations for this one since block and steal props aren’t widely supported by enough sportsbooks, but I still used the tool to find the best price for this one. We’re backing Orlando Magic center Wendell Carter Jr. to swat at least one shot versus the Portland Trail Blazers today.
Blocks have been an issue for Portland all season, and with the current state of their roster, they’re likely to be an even bigger one today. Portland ranks 28th in blocks allowed per game to centers on the year (3). With Anfernee Simons (out) and Jerami Grant (doubtful) likely absent today, we’ll get to see plenty of field goal attempts from Portland’s shaky youngsters and reserves.
WCJ should see, at a minimum, 20 minutes. He has been held to fewer three times this year but never because of a blowout — in fact, in the five wins of 20-plus points he has participated in for the Magic, WCJ averaged 26.4 minutes. That should be enough time for him to record a single swat against this injury-riddled roster.
Of course, WCJ isn’t the most involved defensive play, but he is still averaging 0.54 blocks per game. Importantly, he has picked things up since the All-Star Break, improving his average slightly (0.61) in his 18 appearances since then.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Wendell Carter Jr. Over 0.5 Blocks -135 at DraftKings
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Jusuf Nurkic Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA betting model strongly recommends that you put some money down on this Jusuf Nurkic player prop for tonight’s slate before sharps gobble up the value. Act fast because bets like this one can get bet off the board quickly!
ESPNBet is currently offering a bet for odds of -125 that our model believes has true odds of -138 — a conclusion it reaches because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the same bet priced for -160.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to transform your bankroll. Two weeks ago, we cut up the books for an 8.9% ROI, including a 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Jusuf Nurkic Under 9.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Jabari Walker Bet
The Portland Trail Blazers are dead. Their last win came nearly a month ago, and there’s zero reason to think they will be competitive tonight. Walker has struggled to hit this total for PRA and just won’t have the volume or playing time needed tonight.
Walker is limited as a passer against the Magic, who are notoriously stingy with assists. I expect Orlando will minimize his impact on the glass as well. It helps that we’re getting a great price at DraftKings that we’ve dug up using OddsShopper’s tools.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Jabari Walker Under 19.5 PRA -115 at DraftKings
