BANG! We hit back-to-back NRFI parlays to start the season, and it’s been an absolute printfest so far! I gave out three more NRFI bets over the weekend, but the only way to get those is to follow me on Twitter (@nd_joyce). Our results through the first three days of the season are: 6-2 overall, +4.74 units and cashed two parlays in three days. Now let’s get to my top three YRFI and NRFI bets today for Monday, April 1. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB betting tools or our other MLB articles! Also, check out our guide to NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
We’ve got a cold, wet and windy one here in Chicago. And the direction of that wind looks to be blowing straight in from center at about 15 mph, which could suppress some offense — and the projected total agrees, sitting at just 7.
There are a handful of factors here setting up for a NRFI, but let’s go over them quick:
- Very low total: 7 runs
- Poor weather conditions (44 degrees, rain, wind blowing in from center)
- Rockies poor offense
- Day game after travel for both teams
Inexplicably, the Rockies are trotting out two lefties in Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Jones in their top three against LHP Shota Imanaga, when they could deploy a heavy platoon advantage.
We don’t have a ton of data on Imanaga as this will be his first start in the bigs, but we do have enough data on this Rockies lineup to know it’s not one we should really fear. And it could be one we target for NRFIs all year long.
There could be a small bit of worry with the Cubs lineup. However, Dakota Hudson relies heavily on his sinker, which is one of the pitches Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger are least effective against, per Baseball Savant. As long as Hudson can avoid giving up an early walk to Happ or Suzuki, these conditions could prove difficult to get any kind of big-play offense going.
Let’s roll with the NRFI bet here.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Cubs-Rockies NRFI (-135 at bet365)
Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
I was a little confused as to why this line wasn’t juiced a bit harder to the YRFI, if we’re being totally honest. Getting -120 felt like a bit of a gift.
The pitching matchup is Bowden Francis vs. Ronel Blanco … who?!?
Exactly.
All jokes aside, these are two of the most dynamic top 3’s/top 4’s of a lineup that you’re going to see in baseball (yes, the Dodgers and Braves would also qualify here).
The Blue Jays feature George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette as their top 3; and Justin Turner as the potential cleanup hitter isn’t all that bad. The top trio each have legitimate home run potential and get to face a pitcher in Blanco who is making only his eighth big league start.
Blanco features mainly a fastball and slider mix, which Springer and Guerrero have feasted on over the past two seasons. Bichette, not so much on the slider, but anything can happen in a venue like Minute Maid Park, which is why it makes it a good spot to target a YRFI bet. And we haven’t even gotten to the Astros side of things.
We find ourselves loving another YRFI bet in an Astros game, which really comes as no surprise. Their lineup is chock full of pure hitters and power with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.
And like the Jays, the Astros get to face a 27-year-old pitcher who is making his first major league start … in a hitters’ park … with a game total of 9 … against one of the best lineups in baseball. What could go wrong? Oh, everything.
The script just lends itself to a YRFI here, far more often than it would to a NRFI with these two dynamic offenses against two inexperienced pitchers.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Blue Jays-Astros YRFI (-120 at Caesars)
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | NRFI & YRFI Bets Today
Is there anything more fun than watching the Baltimore Orioles play a home game? That crowd is rocking from the jump, and it’s just electric. And what makes it even more electric is when there’s a run scored in the first. We’re going to get a yes run first inning here — and it might not come from the team you think it would.
The Royals have a pair of guys at the top of their lineup in Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. that can create some havoc on the bases should they find themselves aboard. Both are legitimate stolen base threats, and Baltimore starter Dean Kremer has allowed more combined walks and hits in the first inning than any other inning in his career. So he’s no stranger to allowing baserunners early.
In 69.1 career first innings, Kremer has allowed a combined 110 walks and hits. While that can be a bit noisy, his career WHIP is 1.345 and he does allow right at a hit per inning. Witt and Garcia swiped 72 combined bags a season ago, and the Royals will likely look to push the issue to scratch a run early knowing they’ll need runs in every possible way to compete against a potent O’s offense. I expect them to be aggressive on the basepaths early.
Now the fun part begins. The Orioles get to face our dusty old fiend Michael Wacha. By the grace of god, Wacha is somehow coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA of 3.32 or less.
However, the velocity has taken dips of almost a full mile per hour over from 2022 to 2023, which is likely to continue here into 2024. That doesn’t bode well for Mr. Wacha.
Wacha, who features mainly a changeup and four-seam fastball, will see Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and likely Ryan Mountcastle as the first four batters.
No surprise here, the first three batters in the Orioles’ lineup … all hit the changeup and four-seamer VERY well.
And for the small-sample lovers out there, Rutschman, Santander and Mountcastle are a combined 15-for-45 with five home runs off Wacha.
So for -105 value on this YRFI bet, we have to take it given the first inning struggles we’ve seen from Kremer in his career and the potent offense we know the Orioles possess.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Royals-Orioles YRFI (-105 at BetMGM)
