There is nothing quite like the drama inside an NBA season. With so much of this league fueled by the interest of super stars, it tends to intensify it. The Celtics, Warriors, and Rockets each continued with wins, adding to their double-digit totals. The Clippers won their tenth of the season, and a Sixers team without Joel Embiid or Paul George knocked off the Nets. Let’s run it back with our NBA player prop picks today and a nice seven game slate that still provides some great value off Portfolio EV.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Saturday, Nov. 23
Last season, we went 34,701-28,301 (7.6% ROI) on our NBA expert picks. Find more +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
We cleared 4.4u last night on my Road to 100 as we continue to climb out of a week of variance. My journey has had plenty of volatility but continues to pump out profit. That’s because we haven’t changed our process with Portfolio EV and don’t plan to no matter the high or lows. I’m up over 43u in 31 days of betting the NBA, up over 4u in the month of November, yet took a beating – currently down 14u – this week. Patience may be a virtue as it’s the bloodline of successful betting.
That and getting the right price. The reason why we are all pumping out trackable content with Portfolio EV is because it works. Every day we take a risk when posting a play. It doesn’t matter where the play originates from; when giving one out to anyone there comes a risk. That turns to reward when consistently putting out plays from our tools. OddsShopper folks aren’t the only ones – as we see plenty of cappers use this as a base for generating plays.
Last night we cashed our top play fading Klay Thompson’s 3-point total. We got a monster break against the market and other books and it paid off. We see another trend today but with smaller name (at least compared to Klay) players, still in some popular markets.
Our top play is once again fading a 3-point prop – this time Portland’s Jerami Grant. We get this ticket at +140 on BetRivers – but that’s just the start of it. We mention time and time again the importance of finding the right price – but what does that actually look like? Check the second graphic.
The true odds for this play are +122 and we slam that with an 18 cent difference. This pays out exponentially over time. We also beat every other book, including DraftKings meager attempt to offer a deal at +135. BetRivers, UniBet, & SugarHouse are RushStreet books – all under the same umbrella and offering the same lines, so there’s no difference.
One more thing to note is the “HROI” on each bet. We want these to be positive as it’s defined as historical return on investment. This shows you the ROI of this market as tracked by our results tool. Not only are you getting 100% transparency with our results, you are able to use them to guide the best bets on Portfolio EV.
I suggest hiding negative HROI bets and only focusing on the positive ones. We did that with both Josh Hart and Toumani Camara rebounds. Both follow the same pathway to profit as we ensure our ticket price beats both the true odds and the rest of the market.
Each of those plays also carry a positive HROI so we know this market is consistently returning profit over time. It gives us an edge within the tools, continuing to do the hard work for you. Not many people have the time to go bet by bet over the course of this NBA season to tally our results, that’s why we do it for you.
Remember to check our tools multiple times a day as the market is in constant flux. You want to get the best price for these tickets as they pop up – so feel free to set +EV alerts on site or the app. Happy hunting!
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
