The NBA is back with another loaded Wednesday card. Bettors have 13 games to choose from when placing their wagers, including two nationally televised battles: Heat-Celtics and Trail Blazers-Lakers. But bettors can find more value on some of the lower-profile matchups and should tail these NBA player prop picks — or check out OddsShopper’s tools and Stokastic’s player prop model for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 30
Bradley Beal O/U 1.5 Made 3’s
Bettors have been able to make a boatload by targeting high-volume above-the-break 3-point shooters against the Brooklyn Nets, especially when those players are shooting guards. The Nets have allowed an NBA-high 4.44 made 3’s per game to opposing shooting guards. They have also permitted the sixth-most made above-the-break triples (9.8) on the fourth-highest shooting percentage (37.5%).
Bradley Beal isn’t the highest-volume perimeter shooter, but he gets more than enough work to cash this total. He hit a pair of treys against the Nets earlier in the year on six attempts. He has averaged 4.9 3-point attempts per game this season, 81.6% of which have come from above the break. Beal has hit at least two triples in nine of his 15 appearances this year, giving the standard line hit rate of 60%, slightly better than this price’s implied odds of 57.5%.
The Nets have made some improvements at the perimeter lately, but they’ll regress without Ben Simmons. The Nets will also have to play their third game in four days tonight and could look a bit sluggish defensively. Bettors should split 1.5 units on a small ladder prop for Beal’s perimeter shooting tonight.
Best NBA Player Prop: Bradley Beal Over 1.5 Made 3’s (-135) at FanDuel
Bradley Beal 3+ Made 3’s (+240 for 0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis O/U 30.5 Points & Rebounds
The Indiana Pacers have been getting cut up by opposing big men lately. Anthony Davis went for 38 points and rebounds against them on Monday. Ivica Zubac racked up 60 points and rebounds against them on Sunday. Even Nicolas Claxton recorded 23 points and rebounds against them last Friday. Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert combined for 71 points and rebounds against them last Wednesday.
After those concerning performances, the Pacers now lead the NBA in points allowed to centers per game (27.1) and rank eighth in rebounds allowed (15.7). It’s unclear what exactly has happened to their interior defense — the Pacers rank 11th in points allowed in the paint per game on the year (47.6), but they rank dead last through the last four games (60). They’ll now visit Sacramento to face their former teammate, Domantas Sabonis, for the first time since he was traded last year.
Sabonis should capitalize on the matchup for a big statistical performance. He has averaged 18.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in November, which puts him at 29.8, slightly under this total. However, the revenge game and Indiana’s fifth-fastest pace make backing the over a sharp bet regardless.
Best NBA Player Prop: Domantas Sabonis Over 30.5 Points & Rebounds (-110 for 1.1 Unit) at DraftKings
Jaren Jackson Jr. O/U 19.5 Points
This is a fantastic spot for Jaren Jackson Jr. Although the talented big man must contend with former Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Jackson has the perfect skill set to get the best of the defensive specialist. Jackson faced Gobert, who was then still on the Jazz, twice last season. He scored 26 and 28 points in those games and hit at least three triples in both contests.
Jackson has split his minutes between center and power forward this season. He’ll likely draw coverage from Gobert and whoever the Timberwolves opt to use at power forward. But with Karl-Anthony Towns and Taurean Prince out — and Jaden McDaniels questionable — it’s unclear who the Timberwolves will even play at the position. Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid will likely see upticks in usage, but, like Gobert, neither player can defend both the rim and the perimeter.
The Timberwolves have allowed the fifth-most points (23.8) and made 3’s per game (2.61) to power forwards. They have proven a bit stingier against centers, as they rank fourth in points per game allowed to the position (18.9), but that’s despite them giving up the most made 3’s per game (1.54) to centers. Jackson should exploit whichever player the Timberwolves try to use against him for a big night in the box score. It helps that He has averaged 22 points per game after his return to action against New Orleans.
Best NBA Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-115 for 1.15 Units) at DraftKings
