Welcome to the 13th edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 15 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play. Arizona and Carolina are on the bye.
Some early strategies in the NFL confidence pool picks center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any ** denotes an upset.
Week 13 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Dallas Cowboys (-490) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are just not good enough to beat many teams in the NFL. Their quarterback can’t make the throws necessary to keep them in games. Their defense is being asked to play at Hall of Fame levels just to keep the team from being hammered. Here come the Cowboys in prime time, with a quarterback lightyears better and a two-headed monster at the running back position. This would be the biggest upset to date, but it’s just an easy 15 points.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-130) at Cincinnati Bengals
Way too many people will see the moneyline here and put this game far below its current ranking. They will look at last week’s big win that extended the Bengals’ streak to three and think the Chiefs are in trouble because they didn’t beat the hapless Rams by 50. Kansas City is 4-1 on the road and should be a 7-point favorite at least on a neutral field. The Bengals can’t protect their quarterback and didn’t look overly impressive in two of their most recent wins.
- Cleveland Browns (-315) at Houston Texans
This game has all of the drama with Deshaun Watson making his season debut for his new team. What’s probably lost among the talking heads is just how bad the Houston Texans are from talent to coaching staff. Most of these guys will be gone next year, including their head coach, and have probably checked out of the season. The Browns have one of the fiercest rushing attacks in the NFL before Watson returns, so this is a perfect warm-up game.
- Seattle Seahawks (-345) at Los Angeles Rams
The big move was taking the Chiefs game and bumping them up, so there is no need to take any true risk with this one. The Seahawks are fresh off one of their most disappointing losses this season. They should readily bounce back against a Rams team that wasn’t good before Matthew Stafford got hurt. Seattle has a run game to help take pressure off Geno Smith and a coach who is making the most of what he has, unlike Sean McVay.
- Baltimore Ravens (-375) vs. Denver Broncos
There is something just so untrustworthy about the Ravens, which is maddening because they are a good football team. Lamar Jackson and his fellow teammates can’t stop blowing leads this year. It’s a sickness with them, and they are far too good to keep falling into this mental trap. It’s hard to think that even the lowly Broncos would be able to take advantage rather than the Ravens figuring out a way to terrorize one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-120) at Las Vegas Raiders
Justin Herbert is doing his best Lamar Jackson impersonation this year, just not with his legs. Much like the Ravens, the Chargers have been guilty of handing over leads to the opposition. They face a Raiders team that comes off an improbable overtime victory but still saw signs of the same issues plaguing them all year. The Raiders haven’t figured out anything – outside of maybe giving Josh Jacobs the ball as much as humanly possible – and are a mismatch to slow down the Chargers offense. It might be close, but the Chargers will pull away.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+100) at Atlanta Falcons (+100)
The Falcons came off a horrible loss to Washington last week where Marcus Mariota had chances to win the game before being picked off in the end zone. The Steelers punished the Colts only to see their lead nearly evaporate if not for atrocious clock management. Arthur Smith is a better coach with a better handle on the game than anyone on the Colts sidelines, so the Steelers just can’t expect incompetence to bail them out on Sunday. Atlanta keeps making big play after big play on the ground no matter how far behind they seem.
- Washington Commanders (-135) at New York Giants
Speaking of those Commanders, this is one of the best storylines in the NFL right now. The team made key changes on both sides of the ball and has been flourishing ever since. They have a quarterback who the team and offensive coordinator believe in and a defense led by their head coach who refuses to allow points. The Giants are a good team but super volatile and needed a miracle to cover a double-digit intra-division spread on Thanksgiving.
- Buffalo Bills (-190) at New England Patriots
This is a tough game for the Bills, who haven’t returned home since the major snowstorm. Both teams need this game, although there’s more emphasis on the Patriots. New England will have to match some throws against Josh Allen, and that’s not an easy task. The Patriots defense has thrived off turnovers rather than consistent stops, which is a tough thing to consistently do – especially against better offenses. Both teams can run the ball, but the key will be which quarterback can do more with the ball in his hands. Advantage goes to Buffalo.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-115) at Detroit Lions
Doug Pederson has Trevor Lawrence playing out of his mind and the team believing. It may be a little too late this year, but things have certainly changed on the field for the Jaguars. Things feel like they’ve changed in Detroit, but the jury is still out as for on the field. The Lions scored a bunch of points early in the season and have been living off that for some time now. Unlike his counterpart, Dan Campbell doesn’t have the same mold of clay to work with at the quarterback spot. In the battle of motivators, the Jaguars will get the better of the Lions.
- Minnesota Vikings (-150) vs. New York Jets
Mike White has the entire New York metropolitan area believing. The Jets are a monster right now, young and reckless on defense with the ability to run the ball consistently on offense. They moved to a quarterback in White who stepped in last year with similar results and should carry those same expectations into this game against the Vikings. Ultimately, Minnesota is just a little more talented than the Jets on offense, and despite having some holes on defense in their secondary, it won’t give up a ton of points to New York.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-225) at Tennessee Titans*
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now but face a difficult matchup with the Titans. It’s a similar one they saw against Washington – their only loss this year. The biggest reason to take the Titans in an upset is a similar gameplan that allows the Titans to pound the Eagles run defense while keeping Jalen Hurts off the field. Ryan Tannehill isn’t going to be asked to throw 40 times, and the Titans pass defense can benefit from some pressure up front. It’s never easy for an underdog, but the Titans can sneak by Philadelphia here.
- San Francisco 49ers (-190) vs. Miami Dolphins*
The 49ers are on a serious roll, winning four straight games and showing the ability to shut down teams on defense. In comes the most high-powered passing offense in the NFL, led by an undefeated arm in games he’s started and finished. The Dolphins pose a major threat to any team so long as they can protect their quarterback. Christian McCaffrey isn’t transferring into a ton of points just by adding another target on the field, so the 49ers will still need to respond in a shootout. This will be a test they will ultimately fail.
- Green Bay Packers (-180) at Chicago Bears
Technically it shouldn’t matter if Aaron Rodgers starts or not, regardless of Justin Fields plays. This entire game is a mess, with two of the more difficult teams to figure out. The Packers did keep the game close last Sunday in Philadelphia, while the Bears saw White’s power up close and personal. Without Fields, the Bears are just lost and should suffer another loss – even if that comes from Jordan Love.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-184) vs. New Orleans Saints
It is hard to think at the start of the season that anyone would see this game at this point of the year and think, “there is absolutely nothing worth watching in this football game.” Besides betting or DFS, there is nothing really worth watching, as it’s so hard to trust anything. The Saints are horrific and have one of the worst coaches in the NFL. So are the Buccaneers, and it’s amazing that Todd Bowles is still employed. Tom Brady hit two touchdowns for just the second time in 11 games, and Andy Dalton is even worse. That said, in need of a pick, the Buccaneers get the spot.
