It’s the Tuesday before Christmas in the NBA and we have a five-game slate on deck. The largest spread on the board is 7.5 and with three of the matchups being -3.5 or less, tonight’s games should provide some great entertainment. Although there are various spots to target tonight, using OddsShopper, two props stood out over the rest and will provide bettors with strong value. Tonight’s NBA player props feature Jalen Duren and Mitchell Robinson, targeting Duren’s points and rebounds and Robinson’s points, rebounds, and assists.
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NBA Player Props for Dec. 20
Jalen Duren Prop: O/U 18.5 Points + Rebounds
Jalen Duren is a player who should be targeted in the prop market tonight and potentially for the near future. Over his last five games, Duren has not only surpassed this 18.5 line in four of five, but he has also seen his workload increase significantly. Duren is playing 29.4 minutes per game over the last five and averaging 5.6 field goal attempts per game, both up significantly from where he was just a few weeks ago. The No. 13 overall pick in last year’s draft has established himself as a premier rebounder in the league in his short time as a starter and as we see his minutes go up, his overall effectiveness will continue to climb. Duren is specifically strong on the offensive glass, where he holds a 14.6 offensive rebounding percentage, putting him amongst the league’s best.
The Pistons opponent tonight is the Utah Jazz. The Jazz rank in the bottom third in both points and rebounds allowed. An important stat to note is the inability of the Jazz to keep opposing big men off the glass. The Jazz allow 12.1 offensive rebounds per game, which puts them second in the NBA in that category. The combination of Duren getting a heavier workload paired with the Jazz and their inability to slow down big men makes this bet one to target. If Duren is able to stay out of foul trouble and provide a spark for the Pistons both offensively and defensively, expect him to continue his ascend, both as a scorer and rebounder. OddsShopper likes the potential of Duren here and has him projected both over his point total and right at his rebound total, which would bode well for cashing this bet.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: Jalen Duren OVER 18.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)
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Mitchell Robinson Prop: O/U 18.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
Mitchell Robinson is a player who has seen his minutes uptick as the season progresses. Over his last ten games, Robinson is averaging 28.5 minutes per game, which is up over three minutes from what he was averaging earlier in the season. Surpassing 18.5 in four of his last five, Robinson is showing he is a reliable big for the Knicks starting unit and with a matchup against the wounded Warriors tonight, the Knicks are in position to put a big number on the scoreboard. At home, Robinson has surpassed 18.5 PRA in seven of eleven contests and although Draymond Green can cause fits defensively, expect Robinson to be able to use his size to go at Kevon Looney in the post. Robinson may be more of a risk than Duren tonight but because the opposing Warriors are both beat up and average 24 and 15 to opposing centers, Robinson should be able to take advantage.
OddsShopper gives Robinson a 57% chance at cashing this over with a 7% ROI. If the Warriors keep this matchup close and Robinson does play anywhere around the 28-30 minutes tonight, this prop becomes a great look. If he takes 5+ field goal attempts and maintains energy on the glass, Robinson will continue to earn minutes and in turn cash his PRA prop in tonight’s game.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: Mitchell Robinson OVER 18.5 PRA (-115)
