Monday’s seven-game NBA slate features numerous value spots for NBA player props, and NBA Bet Pro has bettors covered as the best resource to easily find the top +EV bets on the market. The following picks come from sorting NBA Bet Pro by expected value to provide the five best NBA player props for tonight’s seven-gamer, including Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard.
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Best NBA Player Props | Dec. 26
5. Ayo Dosunmu Under 0.5 Steals: +190 (DraftKings)
Despite Dosunmu earning starts and contributing on both ends in the absence of Alex Caruso, Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro is on the under here as the Bulls take on the Rockets. Houston is dead last in the league in turnovers per game, but the young Rockets squad has improved of late and ranks 22nd over the last five games.
That said, Dosunmu has a steal in each of his last three games and in six of the last eight. So while the under is a strong EV play tonight in the projections, for long-term bankroll growing it’s further down the list.
4. Naji Marshall Under 14.5 Points: -118 (Unibet)
This scoring line has taken a large bump due to Marshall jumping from perennial single-digit scoring guy to occasional double-digit guy in the month of December. However, NBA Bet Pro is not buying the uptick and instead eyeing Marshall’s hit rate on this line. He has only gone for 15 points or more four times in 11 tries this month — and only once since Dec. 12.
3. Terry Rozier Under 0.5 Steals: +190 (DraftKings)
Since Charlotte ranks first in the NBA in pace, every matchup is a pace down for them. Rozier has a very similar hit rate to Dosunmu on this over, only Rozier has the detriment of taking on Portland and its 23rd-ranked pace and modest (but not terrible) turnover rate. But also like Dosunmu’s, this under on Rozier’s steals is a much better EV play than it is a long-term bankroll grower.
2. Andrew Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists: +120 (BetMGM)
Nembhard has made a quicker leap to competent NBA player faster than most expected. He’s proven to be perfectly capable of running a second unit, both as a scorer and shot creator. And while he has only gone for four assists or more once in the last four games, the matchup with New Orleans presents both an opportunity for more possessions (Pelicans ninth in pace over last 10 games, Pacers 20th) and more assists, with New Orleans missing several key players.
Nembhard dished five assists the last time the Pacers played the Pelicans (Nov. 7); Stokastic projects him for 4.3 tonight.
1. Collin Sexton Over 10.5 Points: -125 (DraftKings)
Far and away the best player prop across the board, Sexton is in an excellent spot tonight and the sportsbooks seem to have forgotten about him — and tonight’s opponent. The Spurs are the worst team by defensive rating for the season (and 28th over the last 10 games), and they even present a slight pace-up spot for Utah.
Sexton has had a low-usage season by his standards, to be sure. That said, he has gone for at least 11 points in every game since Nov. 21. This simply seems like a massive underprice on his scoring line.
