The Underdog Fantasy Optimizer has uncovered some serious value in today’s NBA slate. These Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions are loaded with +EV plays, a refreshing change after weeks dominated by college football value on Underdog. With that in mind, let’s dive into some Underdog NBA expert picks from Portfolio EV for Friday, Jan. 3.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Ochai Agbaji Lower Than 9.5 Points
Agbaji is seeing the most minutes of his career this season (30.1) with the Raptors, and he has also started all but two games. And given he is averaging double-digit points for the first time and R.J. Barrett is doubtful tonight, one might think that Agbaji is a good play to go for 10-plus.
But Stokastic’s NBA Advanced Stat Projections are bullish on lower than 9.5 points. Consider this: The Magic have been the slowest team in the NBA for about a month, whereas the Raptors ranked sixth in that timeframe. That alone is enough to offset whatever additional scoring Barrett’s absence could theoretically offer Agbaji.
Also, Toronto is healthy aside from Barrett, and Scottie Barnes, Gradey Dick and Immanuel Quickley all projection for more points among ball handlers. We have Agbaji at only 8.3 tonight, well below Underdog’s 9.5 projection. That gives Agbaji a 55% chance of going lower than that number, which leads all Underdog NBA picks today.
Evan Mobley Lower Than 18.5 Points
The scoring leap everyone waited for with Mobley has arrived this year, and he is now averaging a career-high 18.4 points a game and hitting 43% of 3’s on 2.5 attempts per outing. Those are all strong numbers — but we’re fading again here.
First of all, Mobley’s average is below the 18.5 projection, not to mention Cleveland is healthy across the board in the frontcourt. There are not really additional minutes or shots heading Mobley’s way in that regard, and the Cavaliers’ lead guards both project over 20 points tonight. Mobley is close at 18.2, but the play is still lower than 18.5 even with the pace up against Memphis. After all, the Grizzlies have been fourth in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and despite some injuries, they have pieces that can hang with Mobley inside and out.
We have Mobley lower than 18.5 points at a 54% win rate This gives the whole Underdog NBA entry a 29% chance of winning as a 3x Standard play. Be sure to check out our Underdog Fantasy Optimizer for more +EV NBA expert picks, and you can get the entire Portfolio EV arsenal for just $29.95 per week or $99.95 per month!
