Man, there is a lot of basketball today — and frankly, given how weird the NBA has looked to start this year, every matchup to me is an interesting one. And we can make it even more interesting by using our Underdog Fantasy Optimizer to find the best NBA Underdog pick’em predictions today! This takes the NBA picks with the highest ROI and generates the best opportunity for value across the NBA slate; today it loves a couple fades of some stars, so let’s get into it for Friday.
Our NBA expert picks and Portfolio EV plays are killing this year! Check out our full early-season NBA ROI breakdown here.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
It can be tough to find Standard Underdog entries that are both +EV and at a palatable number of picks. Don’t get me wrong; on a long-term scale, those six-pick entries that are 10% +EV are still going to give you returns. But on a night-to-night basis, I get that they can be a little more frustrating.
So we get a solid Underdog NBA opportunity here with some marquee players. Let’s get into it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Less Than 6.5 Assists
While a look at Stokastic’s industry-leading NBA DFS projections may suggest Gilgeous-Alexander is right in line to hit this number, keep in mind that him projecting for 6.5 assists tonight is a median outcome. When playing a side, we also have to consider variable outcomes and likelihood of a more or less play based on slate simulations. Well, our Underdog Optimizer has Gilgeous-Alexander falling shy of 6.5 56% of the time.
The main reason is the Rockets playing at one of the slowest paces in basketball (28th), while the Thunder are fourth. Houston also has one of the better defenses in the league. These help ding Gilgeous-Alexander’s season-long average of 6.8 assists and points to a less play tonight.
James Harden Less Than 22.5 Points
Now on the opposite side, Harden’s Clippers get a pace-up spot against the Kings — about 2.5 more possessions per 48 minutes. That’s pretty substantial.
What hasn’t been substantial has been Harden’s scoring. He has only dropped 20 or more once in his last five games, and Sacramento ranks 11th in defensive rating. The Clippers are also pretty healthy, so the trends lean towards Harden remaining in more of a ball-dominant but pass-first role tonight.
Andrew Nembhard Less than 10.5 Points
This is another pace-down spot, and we’re looking at a somewhat generous projection on a guy who is getting a lot of minutes but not always a ton of shots. Nembhard is 2-for-7 on exceeding 10.5 points, and only twice has he had double-digit field goal attempts. He also has only taken more than two free throws once this year.
Like with all of these picks, sample sizes are still small this early in the season. However, with Bennedict Mathurin and Pascal Siakam now around full-time, there are some higher-volume mouths to feed. Do note that T.J. McConnell is questionable; if he sits, Nembhard less than 10.5 points will likely lose a lot of value. As is, the win percentage is solid at 55%
The total EV of this Underdog NBA entry is a palatable 2%, with a 16% chance of hitting this 6x Standard play. Again, make sure to check out our Underdog Fantasy Optimizer for more +EV NBA expert picks. You can sign up for all of our Portfolio EV tools for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
