The Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets will face off on TNT this evening, but those hoping to see a star-studded matchup are out of luck. Philadelphia’s James Harden remains out, and neither Tyrese Maxey nor Joel Embiid will suit up. The Nets will have both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and, as a result, Brooklyn is heavily favored in the NBA odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Nets-76ers prediction and picks. Be sure to visit the OddsShopper NBA Odds tool for more best bets.
NBA Odds: Nets-76ers Odds
Nets Got the Band Back Together
With Kyrie Irving's return to the lineup, the Nets are back to a three-star team. However, the only one of their three stars with a positive net rating is Kevin Durant. The Nets have played half a point worse with Irving on the floor and 3.8 points worse with Ben Simmons on the floor. Still, the Nets topped the Grizzlies by 12 points in Irving's first game back, and Simmons led the team in box plus-minus.
This Nets team should work -- at least on paper. Irving and Durant are high-volume scorers and effective ball handlers. Simmons is a defensive specialist and lockdown perimeter defender. The Nets have a number of other pieces, like Royce O'Neale, Joe Harris and Seth Curry, who can defend reasonably well and hit open shots. The lack of a true big other than Nicolas Claxton has left the Nets vulnerable on the glass, as they rank 29th in total rebound rate (47.2%), but not in the paint, where they give up the third-fewest points per game (44.9).
Brooklyn still has a ways to go. The Nets play 3.3 points worse than their opponents when Durant, Irving and Simmons are on the floor together. The Nets own a net rating of -7.4 when those three share the floor, the worst of any of their lineups with at least 100 minutes played. They also own a dismal rebound rate of 43.4% in those minutes. Defensively, the Nets have been vulnerable to shooting guards who take above-the-break 3s. They rank third in above-the-break 3s allowed per game (10.4) and first in 3-points allowed to shooting guards per game (4.6).
76ers Without Big-Name Players
The 76ers won't have Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey or James Harden tonight. They'll likely start De'Anthony Melton at the one, P.J. Tucker at the three, Tobias Harris at the four and Montrezl Harrell at the five. Who they start at the two is less clear, although Shake Milton and Matisse Thybulle should be in the mix.
Unlike the Nets, the 76ers have actually played well with their stars on the floor. They play 10.3 points better with Embiid out there and 4.8 with Maxey. They're 0.3 points worse with Harden, but the lineups are slightly more forgiving for the veteran -- team owns a net rating of 2.5 when Harden, Maxey and Embiid share the floor.
Although it's difficult to project exactly what the 76ers will look like tonight, some of their usual flaws remain unresolved. Philadelphia ranks 30th in total rebound rate (47%). Embiid, who owns an individual rebound rate of 16.5%, leads their rotation in the metric. Paul Reed is a close second (16.1%), but behind him, Philadelphia's next-best active rebounders are Harris (10.7%) and Harrell (10.5%).
Final Nets-76ers Prediction & Pick
Despite their own rebounding struggles, the Nets should get plenty of boards tonight. The 76ers may play at the NBA's sixth-slowest pace, but they have allowed opponents to grab the 11th-most rebounds per game (52.4). Shooting guards have averaged the 12th-most rebounds against them per game (6.5).
Ben Simmons isn't the most aggressive rebounder, but he still ranks third on the Nets in rebound rate (13.9%). He just racked up eight last night and 13 against the Grizzlies on Sunday. With him spending the bulk of his time at the two, Simmons should return to hostile territory by managing to come down with enough rebounds to cash this plus-money player prop.
Final Nets-76ers Pick: Ben Simmons Over 6.5 Rebounds (+112) at FanDuel
