No rest for anyone! Well, outside of two teams. Everyone else in action played last night, including a double-OT game between the Heat and Hawks. We went 1-0-1 last night as the Suns decided to sit Jusuf Nurkic, but we did cash Jordan Poole. Let’s do it again, except with guys who are actually playing… Like Anthony Edwards, but more on him in a second.
The slate is loaded with 8 games, some carrying a little more playoff relevance than others. This is a tricky part of the regular season where rotations can be a bit off. We trust the process with our OddShopper pick’em tool and hit you with the top two Underdog plays of the night!
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It’s a simple question at Underdog Fantasy: choose if a player will finish higher or lower their current projection. Build anywhere from two to six legs. Here are the top two plays from Underdog — getting 3x back on a winning ticket. OddsShopper has an Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool designed to help you build winning cards
Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope H/L Than 10.5 Points
The Nuggets eventually pulled away last night from the Utah Jazz and even with a win, KCP was limited to less than 14 PRA. He’s just not going to get the quality touches tonight against a far better Wolves team. These two teams remained tied atop the Western Conference with the Thunder just one game back. Both Denver and Minnesota are playing to win tonight, not to rest – at least not by choice.
What’s interesting to note about Caldwell-Pope is he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. Clearly having him out on the floor as a starter provides value to the Nuggets, but he was added on Monday’s injury report and played through it last night. He does some great things on the floor to help tempo and defense, but KCP is certainly not needed tonight to match Anthony Edwards in the box score. Both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are healthy, so we expect a healthy dose of those two.
One more injury note; Aaron Gordon missed last night’s game after being listed as questionable with a foot injury, there’s a good chance he plays tonight. The LOWER than 10.5 points play for KCP has tremendous value against the true market price. OddsShopper identifies this play at -134 true odds, and we get the implied odds of -122. This yields an EV edge of 4.2% on the play.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope LOWER Than 10.5 Points
Anthony Edwards H/L Than 5.5 Assists
We stay with the game of the night and check the Minnesota side with Anthony Edwards. It’s safe to say Minnesota has little issue with Edwards gunning the ball to 50+ points, a successful night in knocking off the Wizards. Things get tougher tonight against Denver, and while the Nuggets will certainly focus on slowing down Edwards, they will have their hands full up front – even with Nikola Jokic.
Edwards tallied less than this number in two of three games this year against the Nuggets – 5, 8, 1 assists. There isn’t anything specific that jumps out about the one game where he cleared this number, as he should continue to carry the scoring load.
This is a massive game with a playoff atmosphere. The loss of Karl Anthony-Towns has put even more pressure on Edwards to get buckets each night, and we expect a ridiculous shot volume tonight. That is going to negatively impact his ability to find teammates, so while his points play might be ambitious, we find value in fading his assists play.
There’s a slight edge against the true odds of -127 as Underdog has -122 implied odds. This is a +EV edge and something worth attacking every time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Anthony Edwards LOWER Than 5.5 Assists
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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