The NBA Finals shifts to Dallas with the Mavericks looking for any angle to stay alive. After losing both games in Boston, Dallas is down to their last leg, specifically needing more out of Kyrie Irving. Luka Doncic is playing, although still enduring pain. Meanwhile the Boston Celtics look as well oiled as it gets, even with their best player out of rhythm. Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday picked up most of the slack as Kristaps Porzingis cleaned up what’s left. Now the latter stands a chance of missing tonight’s game.
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Luka Doncic H/L Than 52.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
It’s just too big of a number for Luka Doncic. We can arrive at the same conclusion based on a couple of different reasons, ultimately this is going to take a massive scoring effort to get here. Something I’m just not confident Doncic has left in the tank. He took a pain killing shot for his thoracic contusion before Game 2, which stands to reason he will continue to deal with this – at the very least through tonight. If we know it, you better believe Boston is aware. Doncic is going to struggle in out rebounding opponents, and if he’s passing at a high clip then he’s scoring fewer points.
There’s also the Kyrie Irving factor against Boston. While we expect some role players to return to form – or life – in the PJ Washington types, how about a little more out of Irving. If anyone can help shoulder a larger scoring load off the shoulders of Doncic, it’s Irving. That can easily set up a game where Doncic comfortably scores in the low 30s, grabs 7-8 rebounds, and helps facilitate with 9-11 assists. Even if we sweat a 51 PRA, that’s the ceiling.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Luka Doncic LOWER Than 52.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Payton Pritchard H/L Than 4.5 Points
Nothing crazy here as we target a smaller market in Payton Pritchard’s total points. The Celtics aren’t getting a ton out of Pritchard which may come as a surprise, since they blew out the Mavs in Game 1 and held them off – still convincingly – in Game 2. Despite those efforts, Pritchard didn’t see a ton of time and failed to hit HIGHER than 4.5 points in either game.
Some of it might be shot variance as Pritchard hoisted up seven shots in Game 1’s big win, despite missing all of them. It would take similar circumstances for him to see the court in that capacity, taking as many shots. He finished 1-2 from the floor – both from three – last game. He’s going to see time it’s just a matter of how limited his minutes will be.
Even if Boston is suffering a bad loss, it might not mean more minutes for bench guys like Pritchard. The main rotation issue – or adjustment – will come with the possible loss of Porzingis. Pritchard is lucky to get 12-15 minutes tonight, will knock down one three and call it a night.
The only way he hits more minutes, shots, and HIGHER than the above total is if the Celtics run away with this one. That’s the least likely outcome as we’ve seen a massive shift already in this line with the Mavericks now favored.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Payton Pritchard LOWER Than 4.5 Points
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