The Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns square off in the second of back-to-back nationally televised NBA battles on Wednesday, headlined by Stephen Curry and Devin Booker, and we provide our Warriors-Suns prediction, odds and pick.
The Warriors got back to their winning ways with a 132-95 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. Despite covering as nine-point favorites, the Warriors are just 4-6 against the spread (ATS) over their past 10. They were 1-1 as underdogs, with their win an outright nine-point loss as a 10.5-point underdog at the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Suns are coming off a one-point loss as 2.5-point road underdogs at the Miami Heat. Phoenix is 8-5 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS at home. It has covered seven of its past 10 but has traded between covering and not covering over its past six.
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NBA Odds: Warriors-Suns Odds
Warriors: +2 (-110)
Suns: -2 (-110)
Over/Under: 226 (-110)
Devin Booker Helps Suns Do It All
The Suns are a team that can do everything, which they proved a season ago, and returned a similar roster to the one that had the best record in the Western Conference. Phoenix last season was fifth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating, the only team in the top five in both stats. This season has been more of the same, with the Suns ranking fourth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating (the Cleveland Cavaliers also rank top five in both).
With Devin Booker and Chris Paul playing at a high level, the Suns have the leadership and experience to dominate regular-season play. They rank eighth in offensive rebounding rate, but do have flaws on the defensive glass, ranking 21st, but that isn’t something the Warriors can exploit.
Booker leads Phoenix at 26.5 points per game. His efficiency has been solid, shooting 48% from the field and 38% from 3-point range. Cameron Johnson has been sidelined, which means Torrey Craig, a defensive-minded forward, will start.
Stephen Curry Leads Offense, but Warriors Defense Lagging
An absolute staple of the Warriors last season, their defense has relapsed severely. The addition of James Wiseman and the departures of Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II has crippled them on that side. Golden State ranks 20th in net rating, which suggests it hasn’t been as good as its 6-8 record.
Golden State does play at a high rate, ranking second in the NBA in pace. That has played to its strength as a team but also has damaged how well it defends. Stephen Curry leads the Warriors at 31.5 points per game and has scored at least 40 in two of the past four.
These teams played earlier in the season at Phoenix, and the Suns demolished Golden State 134-105. The Warriors had no answer for Booker, and there’s no reason to think this will be much different.
The Warriors are just 1-6 ATS on the road (0-7 overall), and against a team that is proven on both ends of the court, the Suns should be able to win with ease.
Final Warriors-Suns Pick: Phoenix -2.0 (-110) at DraftKings | Playable to -2.5 (+100)
Looking for a prop bet? Check out Isaiah Siriois’s pick here.
