The 8-4 Texas Longhorns will take on the 10-2 Washington Huskies at the Alamodome, home of the UTSA Roadrunners, in this year’s Alamo Bowl. Despite an unimpressive performance in the Big 12, Texas is a field-goal favorite in the college football odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Alamo Bowl predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. Here are Texas-Washington odds and predictions for Thursday.
College Football Odds: Alamo Bowl Odds
Texas Without Star RB on Thursday
Few teams proved more anemic than the Texas Longhorns this year. Texas dominated against Oklahoma and Kansas State but lost to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU. Their near-win over Alabama early in the year now looks a lot less impressive considering the rest of the Crimson Tide's season. But the Longhorns played well enough to end the year ranked a whopping sixth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and they played better than their eight-win record suggests.
Texas' offense performed well because of star running back Bijan Robinson, and quarterback Quinn Ewers may struggle without him. The Longhorns rank only 46th in yards per pass attempt (7.7). Ewers ranks a thoroughly unimpressive 75th in passing efficiency (131.4), between Cal's Jack Plummer (132.2) and Michigan State's Payton Thorne (131.2). Texas' running game ranks 11th in yards per attempt (5.3), but with Robinson and Roschon Johnson opting out, the Longhorns will turn to an unproven redshirt freshman in Jonathon Brooks. Texas won't be able to pivot to Hudson Card if Ewers struggles, either.
Fortunately for the Longhorns, their defense should be able to bail out Ewers. Texas' defense ended the year ranked 10th in the FEI. The Longhorns rank 20th in yards allowed per play (4.7). They have fared especially well against the run, as they rank 16th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.3) and 22nd in average line yards. Their passing defense ranks a solid 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.4) but only 97th in average sack rate (5.2%). The unit will have to adjust without star linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, who ranked second in tackles (96), tackles for loss (10) and sacks (4).
Huskies Keeping Penix Jr. Another Year
The Washington Huskies scored big wins over both Oregon and Oregon State late in the year, but prior losses to UCLA and Arizona State kept them out of the Pac-12 championship game. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a transfer from Indiana, looked phenomenal and will return for another season with the Huskies. Although Penix Jr. helped the Hoosiers become bowl-eligible twice, this year's Alamo Bowl will mark his first bowl-game start. The Huskies ended the regular season ranked 20th in the FEI largely because of their offense.
Washington's offense ranked fifth in the FEI this year. They average the sixth-most yards per game (6.8) and the 13th-most yards per pass attempt (8.5). Penix Jr. ranks 19th in passing efficiency (155.5), between Bryce Young (156.6) and J.J. McCarthy (155.4). Washington's offensive line ranks second in sack rate (1%) and first in passing-down sack rate (0.5%). As a result, Penix Jr. has managed to complete 66% of his throws for 362.8 passing yards per game. Penix failed to clear the 300 mark only twice, against Oregon State (298) and Colorado (229).
Penix has needed to play at such a high level because of Washington's limited defense. The Huskies' defense ranked 88th in the FEI this year. They allow both the 50th-most yards per play (5.5) and yards per game (390.4). The secondary ranks a pathetic 111th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1) despite a pass rush that ranks a slid 19th in sack rate (8.5%). The rushing defense has fared a bit better, as it ranks 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.6), but its 91st-place ranking in average line yards (2.77) and atrocious performance against the Oregon Ducks, who tallied 318 yards on 52 attempts, raise some concerns. While the Huskies won't have to worry about opt-outs, their defense may already lack the personnel necessary to stop Texas.
Final Alamo Bowl Prediction & Pick
Washington is the correct side of Thursday's Alamo Bowl. The Huskies have picked up 76% of DraftKings' handle on just 55% of the tickets, per VSiN. Pregame reports that the Huskies account for 72% of the handle and only 63% of the bets. Although that's led the books to move Washington from a 4.5-point underdog to just a 3-point underdog, the Huskies still have enough value at +3 to warrant a wager.
The Huskies will enter Thursday's contest motivated. Penix's decision to play -- and return to Washington -- proves that to be the case. The Longhorns may struggle without their running backs, and even though the Huskies struggle against the pass, Quinn Ewers has failed to exploit bad passing defenses before. He completed only 57.1% of his passes for 5.1 yards per attempt against Kansas, whose defense ranks 112th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1). Bettors can still buy the +3 at DraftKings, and those who are new to the book can even secure $150 in free bets for winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Final Alamo Bowl Prediction for Texas-Washington: Washington +3 (-110) at DraftKings
