The Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks will square off this weekend, and the Aggies are a 6.5-point favorite for this one. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 5 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Arkansas-Texas A&M odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 5 bet!
Arkansas-Texas A&M Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 5
Arkansas-Texas A&M Betting Odds
Arkansas-Texas A&M Pick & Prediction
The Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas A&M Aggies will play a neutral-site game in another installment of the Southwest Classic. The game has been held in Arlington for 11 of the last 14 meetings between these teams, and, after years of dominance from Texas A&M, Arkansas finally got a win in 2021. The Razorbacks then lost in 2022, but these teams are more evenly matchup now than in the recent past — evidenced by the fact that neither program enters this matchup with an AP Poll ranking for the first time since 2018.
I want action on Arkansas early because of the uncertainty surrounding the status of their starting quarterback, Conner Weigman. Weigman suffered an ankle injury and limped to the locker room in the Aggies’ win over Auburn. His status is questionable at best for this Saturday’s Southwest Classic, and if he can’t go, it’ll be up to backup Max Johnson to lead the way. Johnson excelled against Auburn, but on average, he is a worse quarterback than Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson. Johnson owns a career passing efficiency grade of 142.3, far worse than Jefferson’s 163.7.
Arkansas has faced a far tougher schedule than A&M, yet the Razorbacks are close behind the Aggies in some key metrics. After beating FCS Western Carolina and Kent State, the Hogs have fallen to BYU and now-No. 13 LSU in consecutive weeks. Texas A&M opened the season with a win over New Mexico but quickly fell to now-No. 18 Miami before scoring wins over Louisiana-Monroe and Auburn at Kyle Field. Arkansas enters Week 5 ranked a bad 62nd in yards per play (5.4) and a not-so-great 64th in yards allowed per play (5.5), while Texas A&M ranks 23rd in both yards per play (6.4) and yards allowed per play (4.6).
Although I doubt this injury-riddled Arkansas team will win outright, K.J. Jefferson and head coach Sam Pittman give them enough of a spark to cover a generous spread, especially if the Aggies have to turn to a backup quarterback. Pittman has gone a solid 3-1 in neutral-site games since taking the reins in Fayetteville. Meanwhile, A&M’s Jimbo Fisher is 3-5 in neutral-site games since his arrival in 2018. He went 7-8 in neutral-site games at Florida State as well.
We were able to buy Arkansas as a full 7-point dog in the early week column, but unfortunately, that off-market number has since disappeared. The Razorbacks now sit at 6.5 across the board. Pregame reports that Arkansas has drawn 81% of the handle on 68% of the tickets, so it’s no surprise the line has moved in the Hogs’ favor. While getting stuck with a spread under the key number of seven sucks, you can find Arkansas +6.5 at +100 via Caesars Sportsbook. If you missed the 7, that’s the best price for the 6.5 on the market.
Arkansas-Texas A&M Week 5 Pick: Arkansas +6.5 +100 at Caesars
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles, including our best bets for Week 5. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — you can even try it out now!