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College Football PrizePicks Week 5 Predictions: Longhorns Can Dominate Run Game vs. Kansas (September 30)

There are four games between two top-25 teams for college football Week 5, highlighted by No. 3 Texas hosting No. 24 Kansas in a battle of unbeaten teams. There are a handful of games and props from which to choose, so let’s take a look at the best college football PrizePicks plays for Saturday’s slate of games. With the assistance of OddsShopper’s PrizePicks optimizer, I’ve designed these plays to help you make informed choices and maximize your chances of success.

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College Football PrizePicks Week 5

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Malik Nabers, LSU, More/Less Than 6.5 Receptions

LSU will visit Mississippi in an SEC battle between two top-20 teams, both sitting at 3-1. Nabers has put up some great numbers, including an insane performance of 239 yards and 13 receptions against Mississippi State. While box scores are helpful, accurate betting plays require a deeper dive into the stats.

Nabers’ receptions in four games: 6, 5, 13, 8. He is averaging 11.25 targets per game and had 12-plus targets in three of four games. The seven targets he had against Grambling State are an outlier, as he only played on 29 passing snaps in a game LSU won 72-10.

He has gradually seen more snaps from the slot in each game, with 6, 13, 17 and 24. Playing from behind against FSU, he only caught 50% of his targets but lined up wide in 39 of his 45 passing snaps. Among the Power Five conference teams, FSU ranks in the top 26 in coverage, while Ole Miss ranks 46th.

This game has the second-highest total on Saturday at 66.5 points, and with LSU favored by only 2.5 points, expect a back-and-forth game with plenty of offense.

College Football PrizePicks Play: Malik Nabers MORE THAN 6.5 Receptions

Jordan Watkins, Ole Miss, More/Less Than 57.5 Receiving Yards

Stacking high-total games is a good idea for flex plays, and that’s exactly the move here.

Watkins leads the team with 32 targets and 24 receptions in four games and has run a route on 96% of his snaps. His game totals have been 111, 60, 119 and 57 last week against a stout Alabama defense that ranks No. 1 in pass coverage. The Ole Miss-Alabama game total was set at 56. This game against LSU is at 66.5 with a much tighter spread.

LSU ranks 57th out of 66 teams in the Power Five conferences in coverage and has allowed five receivers to eclipse 58 yards this season.

College Football PrizePicks Play: Jordan Watkins MORE THAN 57.5 Receiving Yards

Jonathon Brooks, Texas, More/Less Than 88.5 Rushing Yards

Two 4-0, top-25 teams suggest a close game in Austin, but the Longhorns are favored by 16.5 points. Kansas has turned the football team around under third-year coach Lance Leipold and his impressive offense. However, its defense is still under heavy scrutiny. Defensive back Cobee Bryant was selected to the All-Big 12 preseason list and leads a decent coverage unit, but stopping the run is an issue.

Kansas ranked in the bottom 30 in run defense in 2022 and has a very young group this season. The Jayhawks run defense allowed 150 yards and three touchdowns against Nevada, 139 yards and two touchdowns to Illinois, and do not forget about the 427 yards and six touchdowns Texas had in last year’s matchup. Brooks had 108 yards and two of those touchdowns as the backup to NFL star Bijan Robinson.

Brooks has 379 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry in four games this season, has eight carries of 10 yards or more, and his elusiveness rating is the seventh best for backs with at least 50 attempts.

After just 53 yards against Alabama’s top-5 defense, Brooks has recorded two 100-yard games in a row, and this play is betting that it will be three after Saturday. The rushing attempts prop for Brooks on some other operators is 17.5 or more. As a heavy favorite, Texas should run all over Kansas, even if the Jayhawks offense puts up a fight.

College Football PrizePicks Play: Jonathon Brooks MORE THAN 88.5 Rushing Yards

Audric Estime, Notre Dame, More/Less Than 90.5 Rushing Yards

In another exciting game between two ranked teams, No. 11 Notre Dame (3-1) will visit No. 17 Duke (4-0). The Fighting Irish are 5.5-point favorites, while the game total is set at 52.5 points. This is a big test for Duke in a primetime game at home. After upsetting No. 9 Clemson in their opener, the Blue Devils are coming off three easy matchups, while Notre Dame just took a tough 3-point loss to No. 6 Ohio State last week. After recording just 14 carries against Ohio State, Estime is primed for a breakout game in a more offense-friendly environment.

Estime leads the team with 591 rushing yards on 7.7 yards per carry. He has a long of 80 yards and has scored five touchdowns on the ground. He’s running behind arguably the best offensive tackle in college football, Joe Alt. Alt is projected to be a first-round NFL pick in 2024 and has an elite 91.4 run-blocking grade in 2022.

Duke’s defense funnels to the run, as it allows just 143.3 passing yards compared to 133 rushing yards per game. In its upset win over Clemson, Duke gave up 422 yards, including 213 rushing. Lead back Will Shipley tallied 114 yards on 17 carries.

Duke does not have a single lineman rated in the top 40 of the ACC. Estime leads the country with 18 rushes of 10 yards or more and ranks fifth in elusiveness rating.

College Football PrizePicks Play: Audric Estime MORE THAN 90.5 Rushing Yards

Two-pick power plays and five-pick flexes have the best EV on PrizePicks. If you’re looking for more advice on how to maximize your value click here.

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