The word has been out on PrizePicks for a while. The unique betting platform is different from traditional sportsbooks in that they offer some new and exciting ways to get action on player props. Wondering if PrizePicks is legit, or simply how to use PrizePicks? Look no further.
DFS players and sports bettors have flocked to PrizePicks as an alternative way to get action on sports. Even as more and more states legalize sports betting, sites like PrizePicks provide a unique and profitable user experience with plenty of opportunities to find an edge.
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The +EV betting spots on PrizePicks are expanding, and getting pretty exciting, with their introduction of a new feature to get 25x on your wager for a six-pick entry called a “flex play.” While those kinds of payouts can make you wonder if PrizePicks is legit, it most certainly is! Thees options are a great way to boost your bankroll if you can find the right spots to bet on. We’ve crunched the numbers to figure out what odds you’ll need on each of those six picks to make a +EV Flex Play on these new offerings.
How To Use PrizePicks: Is it Legit?
Before we get into the details, here’s an overview of how PrizePicks works in case you are just getting started. The site offers two kinds of fixed odds parlays: the “Flex Play” and the “Power Play.”
Take these as an exercise into how to think about your edge on relative to implied odds. Of course, life is always made easier by using our industry-leading tools and projections, especially our PrizePicks Builder. Consider this a quick peek into the “black box.”
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PrizePicks Flex Play & Power Play
Flex Plays offer you a little more slack than a traditional parlay. Let’s say you make a four-leg Flex Play on NBA player props on PrizePicks. If you go 3-1, you will still get a payout, although it will be less than if you go 4-0. The caveat is that if you do happen to go 4-0 on the Flex Play it won’t payout as much as the Power Play. We’ll cover that next, but first here’s a breakdown of the math behind the Flex Play and what you’ll need to break even.
| Play Type | # of Picks | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Expected Return from $10 | Average Implied Odds To Break Even for Each Leg |
| Flex Play | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 7.5 | 57.74% |
| 3 | 2.25 | 0.125 | 1.25 | 0.375 | 0 | 0.375 | 7.5 | 55.03% | |
| 4 | 5 | 0.0625 | 1.5 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.375 | 6.875 | 54.91% | |
| 5 | 10 | 0.03125 | 2 | 0.15625 | 0.4 | 0.3125 | 7.5 | 52.96% |
To break this down simply, you’ll need each pick of your entry to have a 57.52% chance of hitting to make it break even in the long run. Anything above that number and you are +EV. We got those numbers by taking the implied odds of 54.91% in the last column on the table above and adding the vig that the sportsbooks take out to arrive at the real win probability chances that are needed. If you aren’t familiar with implied odds, that’s around -136, depending on the hold %. You can learn more about that or find our check out our hold percentage calculator. Below is a breakdown of exactly what win probabilities you will need with the books’ vig included:
| Play Type | # of Picks | Average Implied Odd with a 4.76% Vig (Same as -110 to -110 bet) | American Odds to Break Even with 4.76% vig included |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flex Play | 2 | 60.48% | -153.057 |
| 3 | 57.65% | -136.137 | |
| 4 | 57.52% | -135.426 | |
| 5 | 55.48% | -124.629 |
All details aside, you can already see where the best opportunities are in Flex Plays and which ones to avoid. Notice that we’ve calculated how much return on a $10 entry you can expect if you are betting into straight 50-50 chances without the breakeven edge %. You can expect to lose $2.50 cents on two-pick, three-pick, and five-pick lineups, so if you’re still wondering whether PrizePicks is legit — yes, and that’s how they make money.
However, you’ll have the worst opportunity and need the most edge on four-pick entries, where a completely even line would lose you an expected $3.125 for every $10 card you put together. That gives you a good idea of which of the Flex Play types offer the best chances.
The best option overall may be the five-pick lineup, where you’ll need the lowest odds per leg to turn these into plus +EV wagers, but you can mix and match depending on your risk tolerance, bankroll and what is available on the board on a particular night.
Since we’re going to go through the numbers for the new 6-pick, 25x Flex Play payouts it’s not worth getting too off track on the Power Plays. Here is a similar chart for your reference as you go through the site.
| Play Type | # of Picks | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Average Implied Odds To Break Even for Each Leg | Implied Odds for Opposite Side with a 4.76% vig | American Odds to Break Even with 4.76% vig included |
| Power Play | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 57.74% | 44.28% | -153.057 |
| 3 | 5 | 0.125 | 58.48% | 43.50% | -158.158 | |
| 4 | 10 | 0.0625 | 56.23% | 45.85% | -143.373 |
Whether you go for Power Play or Flex Play, you can use these numbers to see where your best chances of finding an edge are.
Introducing the PrizePicks Six-Pick Flex Play
There wouldn’t be anything too special about the six-pick Flex play except for the exciting fact that it can net you a 25x payout. Of course, because you would still receive a portion of your entry fee back some of the risk is also mitigated. It’s the best payout you can get of any kind on PrizePicks.
We sifted through the numbers to figure out what kind of odds you will need on each leg to beat this new contest type over time. The exciting thing is while it will be the toughest game on PrizePicks, you won’t need much higher win probabilities to beat these than you would for the five-pick entry. To break even, each of the legs would need a 53.43% (about -127 odds) chance of hitting. Perhaps the most interesting thing is that although the odds you will need to make a profit on these six-pick plays in the long run are slightly worse than the five, they are actually better than four.
Here is a breakdown of our numbers, and remember, tho always account for the vig when looking at those final numbers or you’ll miss the true probability that you’ll really need.
| Play Type | # of Picks | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Decimal Odds | Probability of Cashing | Expected Return on $10 Bet | Average Implied Odds To Break Even for Each Leg |
| Flex Play | 6 | 25 | 0.015625 | 2 | 0.09375 | 0.4 | 0.234375 | 6.71875 | 53.43% |
You can go out and find those on your own. There are plenty of places to find six bets like that on any given night. If you’re still wondering whether PrizePicks is legit, the answer is a resounding yes.
Remember, PrizePicks allows you to combine different sports together, so you can use our projections to get those six +EV props down. On the other hand, you can save time and let us do the work for you by using that PrizePicks Builder that we’ve developed. Better to spend less time scouring the data and more time enjoying the sweat for a 25x payout!
