In what sets up to be one of the most interesting games of the College Football weekend, unranked Notre Dame (2-2) and No. 16 BYU (4-1) head to Las Vegas for the newest installation of the Shamrock Series. While BYU is the ranked team with the better record, the Cougars find themselves as 3.5-point underdogs to the Fighting Irish as Notre Dame tries to get over .500 for the first time this season.
Despite being played in Sin City, both teams are all business as they face a game that’s critical to each in different ways. Notre Dame is looking to get its season back on track and get over that .500 threshold, and BYU is trying to stay in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
A win here could easily catapult the Fighting Irish back into the Top 25, while the Cougars are looking for their second statement win of the season, after knocking off Baylor at home in Week 2.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Predictions and Betting Picks
The public almost always loves Notre Dame, and Saturday night is no exception, with the Fighting Irish currently receiving 64% of the bets and 66% of the money placed on this game. The total is seeing much more even action, with half of the field currently on the over of 51 points. After starting the season with losses to Ohio State and Marshall, Marcus Freeman’s squad has won two straight, beating Cal at home and knocking off UNC on the road. Freeman and company badly need a statement win, and beating BYU in Las Vegas could go a long way in defining how the rest of their season turns out.
BYU, however, feels the disrespect with this line, and head coach Kalani Sitake didn’t mince words when asked about it.
“I like the underdog mentality all the time,” he said. “No matter what the situation is, we know we’re going against a great team. Notre Dame hasn’t played their best football yet. … But we haven’t played our best either.”
Is Notre Dame a Deserving Favorite?
After outlasting Baylor in Week 2, BYU moved all the way up to No. 12 in the rankings. The Cougars haven’t been themselves since, however, as they got demolished the next week at Oregon (41-20) and needed late heroics to pull away from inferior opponents Wyoming and Utah State.
BYU is led by quarterback Jaren Hall, who ranks 21st nationally with 300.4 yards of total offense per game, including 287.6 yards passing. Hall has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, throwing for 1,438 yards and 12 touchdowns with one interception. Hall, who has thrown for at least 250 yards in 11 of his past 12 games, is red hot, completing 72.8% of his passes over the past two weeks. The Cougars will undoubtedly need another monster performance from their signal-caller if they want to pull off the upset.
Notre Dame had a week off to try to regroup after its shaky start. The Fighting Irish needed 10 straight points to come from behind and beat Cal but finally found some offensive momentum against UNC, putting up 45 points in the win.
The Fighting Irish don’t have a quarterback who can match Hall’s attributes. Drew Pyne has settled in as the starter after Tyler Buchner was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury. Pyne is coming off his best game of the season, with career bests of 238 passing yards and three touchdown passes against North Carolina. Look for him to have his eyes locked on star tight end Michael Mayer.
Special Teams the Difference Maker?
While there will be no shortage of offensive firepower in this game, Notre Dame and BYU feature two of the most physical defenses in the country. Led by defensive end and future pro Isaiah Foskey, the Fighting Irish have stayed consistent despite their offense continuing to struggle. Notre Dame has 13 sacks in four games, with nine players recording at least a half sack. Foskey leads the Fighting Irish with three.
On the Cougars’ side, 15 players have at least one tackle for loss, with linebacker Ben Bywater leading the way with two tackles for loss, two interceptions returned for a touchdown, and a pass defended. Points could easily come at a premium for both teams, so look for special teams to play a big role in deciding the outcome.
Notre Dame comes into Week 6 with top-30 ranks in kickoff, punt and field goal efficiency, while BYU posts near-dead last ranks in kickoff and field goal Success Rate. If this does come down to special teams, the Fighting Irish have the proven track record to not only win the field position game but to dominate the Cougars.
BYU vs Notre Dame Prediction
At first glance, the line on this game seems backward. BYU is the team that should be favored, given its strong 4-1 record and No. 16 ranking. When looking deeper into the numbers, however, it’s clear Notre Dame has not played its best football and that the Fighting Irish have a massive special teams advantage that could end up being the difference. The books are practically begging anyone and everyone to take BYU in this spot, but as Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friends.” Don’t be fooled by the difference in records and rankings. Notre Dame is the better team and a deserving favorite in this spot. Lay the points with the Irish.
Best NCAAF Bets: Notre Dame -3.5 (-112, FanDuel)
