The Ohio State Buckeyes hit the road for the first time this season as they head to East Lansing to battle the Michigan State Spartans. It will be the 51st meeting between the two schools. Ohio State sits at No. 3 in both major polls and are 27 point favorites against a Michigan State team that started off the season 2-0 before dropping its next three games.
The Buckeyes hope to keep rolling offensively and defensively and to maintain their undefeated record while looking ahead to key contests with Iowa and Penn State. They are playing their first of four total road games after starting out the season with five straight home games. The Buckeyes have only really been tested in the first half of the Notre Dame matchup.
On the other side, Michigan State is looking for any positive sign after getting dominated by Maryland last week. Sparty ranks no higher than ninth in the Big Ten in nearly every major offensive and defensive category and a matchup with C.J. Stroud and company is the last thing any struggling team wants to see.
A lot is expected of the Ohio State offense this week, as they are four touchdown favorites in a game with a total of 65. The public is certainly buying them, as 74% of bets and 88% of the money is currently on the Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon.
Is Ohio State such a deserving favorite or should we back a potentially undervalued Michigan State team coming off three straight losses?
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Predictions and Betting Picks
Ohio State Leads in Every Statistical Category
Ohio State is one of the top offenses in the country by basically any metric. They are coming off an impressive 49-10 win over Rutgers. The Buckeyes looked to be in top form despite limited production from All-American candidates TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Henderson out last week, teammate Miyan Williams picked up the slack in a major way, rushing for 189 yards and five touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights.
All that production doesn’t even mention Heisman hopeful Stroud, who easily carved up Michigan State’s defense in 2021 throwing a Buckeye-record six touchdown passes in the first half. Ohio State built up a 49-0 halftime lead in that game a season ago.
If Michigan State has any hopes of staying in this game it will need massive performances from both its offense, led by quarterback Payton Thorne. and its defense, led by edge player Jacoby Windmon. Windmon, a transfer from UNLV, leads the FBS in forced fumbles (5), is tied for sixth in sacks (5.5) and is tied for 11th in tackles for loss (8.0). Thorne, who led the Spartans to a 11-2 record last year, has been inconsistent at best this season. Thorne has completed 104 of his 162 passes, throwing eight touchdowns to six interceptions.
Is Ohio State a Deserving Huge Favorite?
It’s no surprise the public is all over Ohio State in this spot. They’re ranked in the top five in the AP poll for the fourth consecutive time going into the Michigan State game. Simply put, the Buckeyes have looked dominant this season while Michigan State has looked inept following its 2-0 start.
With Smith-Njigba sidelined for the majority of the Buckeyes first five games, Ohio State’s other wide receivers have gotten off to terrific starts. Marvin Harrison Jr. is sixth nationally with six touchdown receptions and has 24 total catches for 405 yards. Emeka Egbuka is 13th nationally with five touchdown grabs, 10th in receiving yards per game at 102.4 and has 30 total catches for 512 yards. Julian Fleming was ranked as the top recruit of them al and is starting to make his presence felt with 11 catches for 141 yards and four touchdowns over the past three games.
With weapons all over the field and even on the sidelines, Ohio State looks too good for the Spartans to hang with in this spot. However, covering 27 points in its first road game of the season is a large ask for a somewhat inexperienced Buckeyes team. Look for that number to give Michigan State all the motivation it needs as the Spartans look to stay in this game and pull off what would be a historic upset.
Ohio State’s Defensive Progression
While its offense is definitely its calling card, Ohio State’s defense is strong, as well. The team’s defense ranks in the Top 25 in total defense, scoring defense and passing yardage. This includes a No. 10 overall ranking in total defense, led by linebackers Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers who have combined for 72 total tackles and 9.5 tackles for loss.
There is some hope for the Spartans here, however small it may be, in that the they have defeated Ohio State three times since 2011, the most of any team in the Big Ten. Michigan State has toppled the Buckeyes 10 times when the Buckeyes have entered the game ranked in the AP Top 25, including five times when Ohio State was ranked inside the top five. History, as they say, is history, however. And in their current forms this game could easily be over at halftime just like last year.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction
Coming off three straight losses it certainly doesn’t feel great backing the Spartans in this spot but the same can be said about Ohio State with the Buckeyes close to a four touchdown favorite in its first road game of the season. As mentioned above, Michigan State has given Ohio State some problems in recent memory and with the public all over the Buckeyes in this spot give me the home dog and the points in a ‘close your eyes’ special. Michigan State has its back against the wall and needs a strong performance here to give itself some confidence before other big games against Wisconsin and rival Michigan. Take the points and move on.
Best NCAAF Bets: Michigan State +27
