We have almost reached conference championship season in college football, which means we’ve got just one, maybe two weeks left to bet on the best players on non-playoff teams. We’ll still have a few chances to back playoff-bound teams and players, of course, but I’m not going to miss my shot at backing this LSU offense one last time — because, let’s be honest, Jayden Daniels should not take the field in a bowl game. I’ve got my eye on one side of the Texas A&M-LSU total as my college football lock for Week 13. Let’s dive into this Texas A&M-LSU pick and prediction. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
College Football Lock for Week 13: Texas A&M-LSU Pick
Texas A&M-LSU State Odds
Texas A&M-LSU Prediction
The Texas A&M Aggies will visit the No. 13 LSU Tigers in a season both teams had hoped would go better. The Aggies fired head coach Jimbo Fisher before last week, and the Aggies came out and hung 38 on FCS Abilene Christian. LSU’s postseason hopes may be dashed, but quarterback Jayden Daniels vaulted into the front of the Heisman Trophy race after last week’s performance.
Because we’re so deep into the college football season, it’s important to consider motivation. The Tigers may be out, but they need to score plenty to keep Daniels atop the Heisman race. Interim Texas A&M head coach Elijah Robinson has plenty to prove as well. So does offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.
From a betting perspective, no team has been more profitable for over bettors than the LSU Tigers this year. The Tigers just failed to go over for the first time this year, ending their streak (which dated back to last season) at 12. Notably, they still scored 56 points and allowed 14 to bring us to 70, ever so slightly under an absurd closing number of 75. LSU’s offense held up its end of the bargain but Georgia State’s frequent red-zone turnovers held the squad to just 14 points, well below their implied total of 21.
LSU has been so profitable for over bettors because of a combination of efficient offense and inefficient defense. Under star quarterback Jayden Daniels, the LSU Tigers lead the country in expected points added (EPA) per play. Meanwhile, the defense ranks 131st in EPA allowed per play. Five of LSU’s seven SEC opponents have tallied at least 30 points, with the lone exceptions being Auburn (who just lost to New Mexico State) and Mississippi State.
The Texas A&M Aggies haven’t been as profitable for over bettors, and their chaotic season makes handicapping them difficult. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino is still in town, and in his first game without Jimbo Fisher looking over his shoulder, the Aggies offense averaged 26.2 seconds per play, faster than their season average (27.1) despite leading by double digits from the second quarter onward. Quarterback Jaylen Henderson torched the FCS defense for 11.3 yards per pass attempt. A&M was averaging just 7.8 yards per pass attempt heading into the game.
Again, my college football lock for Week 13 comes down to motivation. Daniels needs to prove he deserves the Heisman Trophy. Petrino needs to prove he still belongs in the FBS. Henderson needs to prove he is a viable college quarterback. LSU’s defense doesn’t have anything to lose — what’s another week of awful play with nothing on the line? Texas A&M’s defense has something to play for in interim head coach Elijah Robinson, who formerly served as the defensive line coach, but let’s not forget the same defense coughed up 12.5 yards per attempt to Tyler Van Dyke, 9.7 to Jalen Milroe and 11.7 to Jaxson Dart.
I’m playing the total at bet365, where you’ll find the over 66 priced at -110. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number close higher, especially with all the narratives swirling around Daniels’ Heisman campaign. Users who are new to bet365 can take advantage of their choice of special offers: up to $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses or $150 in bonus bets after wagering at least $5. If you’re a Louisiana resident, you can do better: get $365 in bonus bets just for betting $1!
Texas A&M-LSU State Pick & Prediction: Over 66.5 -110 at bet365