The 2023 college football season is still months away, but for sharp bettors, that means opportunity. The win total markets haven’t been bid into their most efficient form quite yet, so we can still find some value on those markets across the sportsbooks. Let’s dive into the college football win total odds for the SEC to make some predictions and identify the best picks.
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College Football Predictions 2023: SEC Win Total Odds & Picks (June 26)
SEC Win Total Betting Odds
Shut Up About South Carolina Already
Yes, the South Carolina Gamecocks scored impressive upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson to knock both teams out of the College Football Playoff. Yes, quarterback Spencer Rattler looked great in those games. I don't care, and Vegas clearly doesn't either. Rattler is back, but he still isn't good. His overall passing efficiency grade last season (138.7) ranked a dismal 54th among 113 eligible quarterbacks. If you take out his outlier performances against Tennessee and Clemson, Rattler's passing efficiency grade would nosedive to 126.7, which would rank 86th.
Head coach Shane Beamer brought in Dowell Loggains, Arkansas' former tight ends coach, to serve as offensive coordinator, but Loggains will have to deal with a major problem. Loggains' Razorbacks ranked eighth in rushing play percentage last year (61.5%), far above the 94th-ranked Gamecocks (47.4%). The offense Loggains most recently ran, the 2019-20 New York Jets, ran the ball an above-average amount. South Carolina's top returning option at running back, Juju McDowell, carried the ball only 62 times for 219 yards last year. The team had only two scholarship players at the position for spring practice.
South Carolina's schedule isn't easy. They'll host Furman, Mississippi State, Florida, Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Clemson. They'll also play North Carolina at a neutral site and visit Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri and Texas A&M. Furman and Jacksonville State should be easy wins, but Clemson, Georgia and Tennessee are likely losses. I favor North Carolina and Texas A&M as well. Kentucky, Florida or Vanderbilt could all steal a game in Columbia as well, giving the Gamecocks almost no margin for error. Sell high on South Carolina.
SEC Win Total Prediction: South Carolina Under 6.5 -135 for 1 Unit at DraftKings
Can Texas A&M Bounce Back?
One of last year's preseason favorites to win the title, Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M Aggies, absolutely imploded. They went a disastrous 5-7, including 2-6 in conference play, failing to reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2008. Various off-field stories haunted the team from week to week. A ridiculous early-season home loss to App State on the final play served as a harbinger of doom for last year's Aggies, but at least it pushed the coaching staff to move away from quarterback Haynes King and offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey.
But instead of diving into what went wrong, let's discuss what went right. The Aggies started the year 3-1 with wins over then-No. 13 Miami and then-No. 10 Arkansas. They entered the year with the top-ranked recruiting class but a major question mark under center. After the wheels fell off by midseason, true freshman quarterback Conner Weigman took the reigns and looked impressive -- he threw for 896 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 55.3% of his passes. Weigman and A&M ended the season with a double-digit win over then-No. 5 LSU. The team also added Bobby Petrino as their offensive coordinator, and he is a major upgrade from Dickey.
The Aggies have a remarkably light schedule this year They'll host New Mexico, Louisiana-Monroe, Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Abilene Christian. They'll also play Arkansas at a neutral site and visit Miami, Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU. I count three layup non-conference home wins and a likely road win over a bad Miami team. Beating at least two of Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi State at home feels likely. Three wins are probable; four wins are possible. Arkansas in Arlington favors A&M. Stealing a win against Tennessee, Ole Miss or LSU on the road may also be in the cards. Buy low on Texas A&M.
SEC Win Total Prediction: Texas A&M Over 7.5 -150 for 1.5 Units at BetMGM
