After a so-so Week 7 slate that would’ve been much worse if not for a thrilling Washington-Oregon game, we’ve got a pair of pivotal Power 5 matchups on tap in Week 8, and don’t worry, I’ve got picks for them both. Without further ado, let’s dive into my college football Week 8 predictions so that we can talk about the best Week 8 picks for Rice-Tulsa, Penn State-Ohio State, Tennessee-Alabama and more college football action.
College Football Week 8 Predictions: Picks for SMU-Temple, Penn State-Ohio State, Tennessee-Alabama & More
SMU-Temple College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
SMU: -1100 | Temple: +700
SMU -19.5: -110 | Temple +19.5: -110
Over 56: -110 | Under 56: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Friday, Oct. 20 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated SMU-Temple odds and picks, click here!
The Southern Methodist Mustangs will visit the Temple Owls in what everyone projects as a blowout. SMU is 2-0 in conference play; Temple is 0-3. Although SMU must play this one on the road, they won their lone conference road game in dominant fashion, beating East Carolina by 21 points. SMU’s only other road games have come against Power 5 opponents. They lost to No. 6 Oklahoma by 15 and TCU by 17. Losing by double digits is never fun, but those margins could’ve been a lot bigger. Meanwhile, Temple has suffered home losses to UTSA and Miami.
With Tanner Mordecai now in Wisconsin, SMU has turned to a slightly worse option at quarterback, but the defense has stepped up where the offense has faltered. Preston Stone has taken the reins. He ranks only 57th in passing efficiency, and SMU’s offense ranks an unspectacular 63rd in yards per play (5.4). The Mustangs averaged 5.9 last year. However, the offense still ranks an encouraging 32nd in the FEI. The defense, which allowed 6.1 yards per play last season, ranks 18th (4.6) in the metric this season. The unit ranks only 64th in the FEI, but the yardage returns are encouraging.
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SMU isn’t perfect, but it’s far better than Temple. The Owls rank 111th in yards per play (4.6) and 126th in yards allowed per play (6.7). As a team, they rank 124th in the FEI with the fifth-worst defense. First halves have proven especially disastrous for Temple. The Owls rank 114th in points per first half (9.2) and 129th in points allowed per first half (21.8), good for an average margin of 12.6. Quarterback E.J. Warner ranks 88th in passing efficiency (121.3), which could be worse, but the Owls have become entirely reliant upon their passing game to compensate for a rushing game that ranks 116th in yards per attempt (3).
I’m targeting the first-half spread for this one. SMU ranks 50th in points per first half (15) but clocks in at an impressive 14th in points allowed per first half (8.2), good for an average margin of 6.8. With the first-half spread set to 10.5, that’s not quite what we’re looking for, but narrowing down our dataset can help. SMU is projected to win tonight, and in the Mustangs’ four wins, the first-half margin was 31, 56, 14 and four, good for an average of 26.3 and a median of 22.5. Temple is bad, and SMU should capitalize early — but I’m still limiting my action on this wager to a half unit.
SMU-Temple College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: SMU 1H -10.5 -105 at DraftKings
Penn State-Ohio State College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Penn St: +165 | Ohio St: -185
Penn St +4: -110 | Ohio St -4: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 12 p.m. ET
The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes will host the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions in a crucial Big Ten battle. Ohio State barely knocked off Notre Dame this season, so this matchup with another well-regarded team could be interesting. The books expect somewhat of a close battle with the Buckeyes trading as only a 4-point favorite. Still, Penn State has yet to beat a non-cupcake opponent this year. The Nittany Lions are coming off wins over UMass and Northwestern. Their best win to date was a 31-0 drubbing of Iowa, but is clobbering the worst offense in college football really that impressive?
This game is a tough one for me because I am not a believer in either side. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day committed multiple fireable offenses against Notre Dame. Quarterback Kyle McCord did his best to throw a game-sealing interception, too. But the Buckeyes still rank second in the FEI, which puts them well ahead of the ninth-ranked Nittany Lions. Ohio State ranks eighth in both offense and defense in the metric, while Penn State ranks 17th and sixth, respectively. Penn State’s refusal to pass the ball aggressively downfield remains a major hindrance.
I can’t back Penn State here because I haven’t seen nearly enough from quarterback Drew Allar. He ranks 43rd in passing efficiency (145.3) despite Penn State’s 6-0 record. Importantly, he has looked extremely uncomfortable in road games. Allar’s career passing efficiency at home (167.2) is solid, but it plummets on the road (107), and it’s not like he has faced world-beating defense in his road starts. He took on Illinois in Week 4 and Northwestern in Week 6. Those defenses rank 49th and 74th in the FEI, respectively.
But while I haven’t seen enough from Allar or Penn State’s passing offense, I have seen just enough from Kyle McCord. He ranks 16th in passing efficiency this year (165.9) and will benefit from playing at home. Like Allar, he is a split-heavy quarterback — his home passing efficiency grade (199.7) far outweighs his road grade (130.5). Ohio State’s lone home conference game to this point came against Maryland, which, after the first half, looked competitive, but McCord and the offense put together an impressive second half, and the quarterback ended up wit a grade of 181. I trust him against Ohio State on Saturday, and we’re parlaying the Buckeyes to win with Alabama to win.
Penn State-Ohio State College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Ohio State ML/Alabama ML -101 at Bet365
Tennessee-Alabama College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Tennessee: +270 | Alabama: -340
Tennessee +8.5: -110 | Alabama -8.5: -110
Over 49: -110 | Under 49: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 3:30 p.m. ET
I feel professionally obligated to disclose that I am a fan of the No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers. They’ll take on the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa this weekend, but I have seen this movie before. Yes, last year the Vols scored a stunning home upset win over the Tide, but it almost didn’t happen — a called-back interception, missed Alabama field goal and nearly blocked Tennessee field goal proved deciding. Both of these teams were much better last year, but the Vols have fallen off much further than the Tide this season. Alabama is trading as a nine-point home favorite.
Let’s just get the quarterback comparison out of the way. Alabama’s Jalen Milroe isn’t perfect, but he has been far better than Joe Milton III to this point. Milroe ranks ninth in passing efficiency (174.7) while adding 139 rushing yards and five scores with his legs. Milton ranks 67th in passing efficiency (133.6) while adding 163 yards and four scores with his legs. The key difference between the two quarterbacks has just been yards per attempt. Milroe averages 10.6 while Milton averages 6.9. Some of that falls on Tennessee’s receiving corps, but with Bru McCoy now injured, that’s a serious problem to consider.
The Tide are just the better team this season, and it’s sharp to capitalize on both Tennessee homerism and last season’s numbers biasing the public. Alabama ranks eighth in the FEI this year with the 21st-ranked offense and first-ranked defense. Tennessee ranks a close 11th but boasts the 15th-ranked offense and 19th-ranked defense. Both offenses have become a lot more run-dependent than they were before. Tennessee is passing just 44.3% of the time, which ranks 105th, while Alabama is passing 41.4% of the time, which ranks 117th.
I expect this game will come down to which passing offense can move the ball more efficiently because both rushing defenses have allowed less than 3.2 yards per carry. These offenses will sputter if they continue to run at the rate they have run against opponents. Once the passing games open up, I give Alabama the edge because of Milroe’s higher passing efficiency score and the Alabama defense’s high rating in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback. Tennessee got cut up on the road by Graham Mertz earlier this season, and Milroe should produce similar numbers this Saturday.
Tennessee-Alabama College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Ohio State ML/Alabama ML -101 at Bet365
Middle Tennessee-Liberty College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Middle Tennessee: +475 | Liberty: -650
Middle Tennessee +14.5: -110 | Liberty -14.5: -110
Over 57: -110 | Under 57: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated Middle Tennessee-Liberty odds and picks, click here!
The midweek college football slate kicks off with an absolute banger matchup between the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders and the Liberty Flames. If you can’t read the sarcasm through the screen, this is just one of three midweek games featuring a double-digit spread, and one of the other two just so happens to fall on this disgusting Tuesday card. Still, bad games are even less fun if you don’t have action on them, and what the hell else is there to do on a Tuesday night? That’s what I thought. You can always trust yours truly to have some action down if there are sports to watch.
Middle Tennessee is having a pretty awful season to this point. Longtime head coach Rick Stockstill has gone a flatline 106-106-5 ATS since he came to Murfreesboro in 2006. He is 108-102-6 to the over but is a breakeven 3-3-1 for total bettors this season. The Blue Raiders rank a bad 97th in yards per play (4.9) despite throwing the ball 55.5% of the time with an inefficient Nicholas Vattiato under center. Vattiato is a split-heavy quarterback and, frankly, sucks on the road. His home passing efficiency grade (148.8) plummets when he plays in hostile territory (103.8).
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Liberty, on the other hand, is having an impressive season under new head coach Jamey Chadwell. Chadwell made the short drive up from Conway this year, and he brought his run-heavy, slow-paced scheme with him. Liberty ranks fourth in rushing play percentage (66.3%), a rate that trails only the service academies. This balances out their efficient offense, which ranks 11th in yards per play (6.8), and helps keep the defense, which ranks 22nd in yards allowed per play (4.8), fresh. Liberty is 4-2 to the under this season, in no small part because of their slow pacing.
The total for Tuesday’s action ranges from 54.5 to 56, which is weird because 55 is actually a key number — maybe even the key number. Since 2000, no final total is a likelier outcome than 55. We’re also right about where the breakeven point flips from the under to the over as well — 52.5% of games played since 2000 have stayed under 54, but 55.8% have stayed under 55. Anyway, we’re betting on a slow-paced Chadwell offense to go up early and milk the clock against an inefficient one led by a bad road quarterback. Getting under the 56 at Caesars is a nice bonus.
Middle Tennessee-Liberty College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Under 56 -110 at Caesars
Southern Miss-South Alabama College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Southern Miss: +650 | USA: -1000
Southern Miss +18.5: -110 | USA -18.5: -110
Over 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 7:30 p.m. ET
For updated Southern Miss-South Alabama odds and picks, click here!
I hope you enjoy midweek football enough to suffer through a snoozer, because if you’re expecting a close game in Mobile on Tuesday night, well, just look at the spread. The South Alabama Jaguars are a 17.5-point favorite over the Southern Miss Golden Eagles for several good reasons. Southern Miss, despite having Sun Belt legend Frank Gore Jr. on the roster, ranks 111th in yards per play (4.6). The defense hasn’t played well, either — the Golden Eagles rank 126th in yards allowed per play (6.7). The books expect a beatdown, and I do, too. Still, I don’t trust South Alabama nearly enough to back them to cover.
These teams have employed similar offensive approaches to varying degrees of success. Both squads are 72nd in seconds per play (26.4). They also aren’t far off in passing play percentage, as Southern Miss ranks 50th (50.7%) while South Alabama ranks 56th (49.7%). We’ve already gone over Southern Miss’ struggles to generate yards per play, but South Alabama has found some success, as the Jaguars rank 49th in the metric (5.6). They have even generated 6.5 yards per play at home. Meanwhile, their defense ranks 35th in yards allowed per play (5).
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When these teams met in Hattiesburg last season, they combined for 47 points in a Jaguars victory. They notched 38 in Mobile a season before that in what was then a non-conference game. I don’t put too much stock into raw points per game, but these teams are combining to average only 52. It’s the fact Southern Miss has allowed 39.6 points per game that likely has this total so high. But the teams that racked up 40-plus points against them — Florida State, Arkansas State and Texas State — are either Power 5 teams or incredibly fast-paced Sun Belt schools. Tulane only hung 21 on Southern Miss. Old Dominion scored 17.
South Alabama head coach Kane Wommack is a defensive mind. The Jaguars may have gone 18-12-1 to the over during his tenure, but they are 7-6-1 to the under at home. The books have started to adjust after South Alabama opened up Sun Belt play by soaring over three straight totals, and now the Jaguars have their highest one of the season. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles are 4-2 to the over this season, but each of their games against FBS opponents stayed under by 24-plus or went over by 24-plus, depending, as I mentioned earlier, on the pacing. South Alabama will play a sufficiently slower brand of football to keep this one under.
Southern Miss-South Alabama College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Under 53.5 -110 at BetMGM
Florida International-Sam Houston College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
FIU: +170 | Sam Houston: -200
FIU +5: -105 | Sam Houston -5: -115
Over 40.5: -110 | Under 40.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated Florida International-Sam Houston odds and picks, click here!
Wednesday’s contest between the Florida International Panthers and Sam Houston State Bearkats should be competitive. The books list the spread at five, which is one of the narrowest numbers on the midweek slate. However, bettors expecting a good game should temper their expectations substantially. FIU ranks 130th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and owns the 120th-ranked offense. Sam Houston State ranks 121st with the 133rd-ranked offense. Unsurprisingly, the total sits all the way down at a depressing 39.5. With the other Wednesday game featuring New Mexico State (125th) and UTEP (132nd), this game is still the better one to watch.
Florida International doesn’t do much well, but the Panthers can at least move the ball slightly better than the Bearkats. FIU’s offense ranks one spot above Sam Houston’s in the FEI (132nd). The Panthers also rank 75th in yards per play (5.3), far better than the Bearkats (4.1). FIU’s now-starting quarterback, Keyone Jenkins, ranks 68th in passing efficiency (133.5), also far better than Sam Houston State’s starter, Keegan Shoemaker (116.2). Perhaps most telling is the fact Sam Houston State’s offense has averaged only 262.2 yards per game. It’s hard to put points on the board if you can’t move the football, and you can’t win without points.
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Sam Houston State does deserve some kudos for putting a viable defense on the field. The Bearkats rank 74th in yards allowed per play (5.7), which, while not great, is far better than the 114th-ranked Panthers (6.4). The Bearkats have allowed only 7.5 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 63rd, but have coughed up 4.6 yards per rush, which ranks 95th. Their poor run defense probably won’t mean much against an FIU team that averages just 3.7 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 91st, but the Panthers haven’t stopped trying to run despite their inefficient play. FIU’s balanced offense passes and runs at a roughly 50/50 split.
I’m trusting Florida International to keep this one within five points. Sam Houston State is winless this year, and while they will benefit from home-field advantage, we’re far enough into the season for the Bearkats’ embarrassing 0-6 record to have meaningful consequences for attendance, especially on a Wednesday night. While the Panthers are also winless in conference play, they at least scored three non-conference wins, beating FCS Maine, UConn and North Texas. Said in another, extremely reductive way, we’re getting a 3-4 team plus five points against an 0-6 team. I’m only laying a half unit on this one, but this is by far the best angle for Wednesday’s miserable card.
Florida International-Sam Houston College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: FIU +5 -110 at Bet365
Rice-Tulsa College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
Rice: +140 | Tulsa: -160
Rice +3: -110 | Tulsa -3: -110
Over 57.5: -110 | Under 57.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated Rice-Tulsa odds and picks, click here!
The Rice Owls will visit the Tulsa Golden Hurricane on Thursday night. Despite most of the midweek card being underwhelming, Thursday’s games are both solid — the spread for each game sits at or around a field goal. Both Rice and Tulsa enter this game with 3-3 overall records and 1-1 conference records. The spread of three implies that the only real edge Tulsa has over Rice is the home-field advantage, but I disagree — Tulsa outranks Rice in several key metrics, and I’m backing the Golden Hurricane to score a home win in this spot — but make sure to read to the end to understand the full play.
Tulsa leads Rice in several metrics on both sides of the ball. For starters, Tulsa leads in the FEI, 96th to 109th. Tulsa’s offense ranks 93rd while Rice’s ranks 99th; Tulsa’s defense ranks 78th while Rice’s ranks 112th. Tulsa ranks only 97th in yards per play (4.9), behind 48th-ranked Rice (5.7), but that obscures the fact Tulsa has faced two top-six teams, Oklahoma and Washington. Rice has played Texas, but after that annual beatdown, the Owls haven’t played anyone threatening — and they even lost to UConn.
Rice runs a pass-heavy offense, and the raw data isn’t great for Tulsa’s passing defense, but let’s not forget that the Golden Hurricane have faced Michael Penix Jr. and Dillon Gabriel. Yes, it’s concerning that Tulsa ranks 96th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.1), but they rank a far less concerning — even encouraging — sixth in the metric over the last three games (5.1). Rice ranks fourth in passing play percentage (64.2%) with quarterback JT Daniels, who ranks 29th in passing efficiency (157.4), so if Tulsa’s secondary can maintain that performance, the Owls are in trouble.
Tulsa will also benefit from home-field advantage. Daniels is far outperforming his career average in passing efficiency (157.4 to 139.6) and seriously struggles on the road. His passing efficiency grade dips to 127.6 in hostile environments, and his interception rate jumps from 2.1% to 3.1%. Although Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren is 13-11 ATS as a road underdog, he has gone only 3-21 SU in those games. I’m not backing Tulsa to cover, but I’m teasing both them and James Madison down to +3.5 for a teaser with odds of -118 at FanDuel.
Rice-Tulsa College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Tulsa +3.5 /James Madison +3.5 -118 at FanDuel
James Madison-Marshall College Football Week 8 Prediction
Odds via Bet365
James Madison: -165 | Marshall: +145
James Madison -3.5: -110 | Marshall +3.5: -110
Over 52: -110 | Under 52: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 7 p.m. ET
For updated James Madison-Marshall odds and picks, click here!
The James Madison Dukes look like one of the best teams in college football, and it’s a shame that they’re ineligible for the postseason. They’ll face the Marshall Thundering Herd on the road this weekend but are road favorites. James Madison was the first team out of this week’s AP Poll, picking up 70 votes but not quite edging out UCLA. The undefeated Dukes deserve plenty of credit, just maybe not a top-25 ranking — they rank 51st in the FEI, 77th on offense and 31st on defense. Meanwhile, Marshall ranks 66th, 87th and 36th.
James Madison could be better against the pass, but their stifling run defense bodes well for this matchup with a balanced Marshall team. The Dukes have coughed up just 1.4 yards per rush attempt this season, and they lead the FBS in the metric. Marshall runs 48.2% of the time. The Thundering Herd were able to knock off the Dukes last year but needed multiple explosive runs, including a 61-yard run from the since-departed Khalan Laborn. But JMU’s rushing defense has gotten even better, and Marshall’s rushing game has gotten worse.
The Dukes are also the better offensive team, and their passing scheme works. Quarterback Jordan McCloud ranks 12th in passing efficiency (168.1). Last year’s starter, Todd Centeio, ranked fourth (169). James Madison may employ a balanced offense, but the passing game can be explosive when necessary — the Dukes rank 18th in yards per pass attempt (8.9). Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher ranks 62nd in passing efficiency (135) and the Herd rank 60th in yards per pass attempt (7.4). Those aren’t bad numbers, but they’re bad when compared to what James Madison has put together.
Again, this is also a revenge spot for the Dukes. Marshall suffered one home loss all of last season, and it came against Marshall. The Thundering Herd picked off Centeio’s backup a whopping four times and still only won by 14 points. Now that James Madison will have its intended starting quarterback under center for this one, I’m excited about backing them to keep this within a field goal. Again, we’re teasing both Tulsa and James Madison to +3.5 for odds of -118 via FanDuel.
James Madison-Marshall College Football Week 8 Pick & Prediction: Tulsa +3.5 /James Madison +3.5 -118 at FanDuel
OddsShopper College Football Tools & Tips
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