After finishing the regular season 8-5, the Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the 11-2 Miami (OH) RedHawks as 6.5-point favorites in a game with a 43-point total. Let’s dive into our Miami-Appalachian State odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Cure Bowl Bet: Miami (OH)-Appalachian State Pick
Cure Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
Miami (OH): +205 | Appalachian State: -250
Miami (OH) +6.5: -110 | Appalachian State -6.5: -110
Over 43.0: -110 | Under 43.0: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 3:45 p.m. ET
Miami (OH)-Appalachian State News & Notes
Miami (OH) Absences: QB Brett Gabbert, QB Aveon Smith
Miami (OH) Coaching Changes: N/A
Appalachian State Absences: RB Nate Noel, WR Milan Tucker, WR Dashaun Davis, Edge Shaun Collins
Appalachian State Coaching Changes: N/A
Miami (OH)-Appalachian State Comparison
| Metric | Miami Ohio | Appalachian State |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 130th | 46th |
| Overall Offense | 90th | 28th |
| Run Blocking | 72nd | 57th |
| Pass Blocking | 94th | 87th |
| Pass Rate | 119th | 57th |
| Overall Defense | 20th | 47th |
| Run Defense | 16th | 101st |
| Pass Rush | 34th | 40th |
| Coverage | 30th | 22nd |
Cure Bowl Pick & Prediction
In a Sun Belt-MAC crossover, Appalachian State takes on Miami as a 6.5-point favorite with the total trading at 43.0. After both teams lost their conference titles, Appalachian State appears more intact for this bowl. With a few key opt outs on Miami, the line continues to move Appalachian State’s direction.
The biggest of these optouts is quarterback Aveon Smith, who hit the transfer portal. Miami already lost Day 1 starter Brett Gabbert to injury, leaving unproven third stringer Henry Hesson to start. To date, Hesson has 16 snaps to his name.
Miami was already playing with a backup quarterback, and it severely reduced its pass rate. While a run-based approach looks like the path of least resistance against Appalachian State, this offense still has major obstacles to overcome. On top of the quarterback woes, Miami’s offensive line ranks outside the top 70 in both pass and run blocking. While this was fine against a MAC schedule, a Sun Belt opponent could prove tricky.
As for Appalachian State, this team lost a few depth pieces on offense. Fortunately, it retains the services of Joey Aguilar under center, who completed 63.4% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt, 33 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. Aguilar will be complemented by Kaedin Robinson, who finished with 59 catches for 787 yards, as well as a stable of backs like Kanye Roberts and Anderson Castle.
The matchup looks brutal on paper, but Appalachian State proved capable of scoring on some of the Sun Belt’s top defenses. This team managed 23 points against Troy in the Sun Belt title game while previously beating another top-ranked defense in James Madison. With a weaker opponent here, Appalachian State should still find ways to score.
Ultimately, this game projects as a low-scoring, slow affair. With Miami looking at offensive struggles, taking a look at the under on the team total makes the most sense here.
Cure Bowl Pick & Prediction: Miami (OH) Team Total Under 17 +105 at bet365
