MACtion is everyone’s favorite college football event. As the old adage goes: “When in doubt, bet on the directional Michigan school.” There are two of them in this one, as the Eagles head to Kalamazoo for a matchup with the Broncos.
The Eagles are generally better than the Broncos, but Eastern Michigan has been unimpressive in recent weeks. That said, 5 points might be too many for the Broncos to lay.
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan College Football Week 6 Picks
Eastern Michigan’s Defensive Struggles
Eastern Michigan’s win over Arizona State was magnificent but overshadowed by Herm Edwards’ firing. Outside of that, the Eagles have been blown out by Louisiana and Buffalo while sneaking by UMass and Eastern Kentucky.
Eastern Michigan has been great in standard downs, and it’s because of a much-improved offensive line and a breakout season from halfback Samson Evans. The Eagles are 11th in adjusted offensive line yards this season. They’re also fifth in power success rate. This team can run the ball and move the chains consistently.
Evans transferred from Iowa and, despite 13 touchdowns, didn’t see much playing time last season. But he’s averaging almost 6 yards per carry this season and has three touchdowns. When he’s not following his big offensive line, Evans is breaking tackles, currently ranking top 10 among all FBS running backs in yards after contact.
Unfortunately, the defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Eagles rank outside the top 120 teams in standard downs success rate allowed and standard downs EPA per play allowed. They’re also 125th in points per opportunity allowed and 117th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.
Basically, the Eagles have allowed every team to march down the field and then easily score in the red zone. Even against a horrific Buffalo offense, Eastern Michigan allowed 500 yards and 50 points.
Western Michigan
Western Michigan lost a ton of talent on the offensive end. That includes their quarterback, three offensive linemen and almost the entire receiving core. It has shown, with the Broncos being one of the nation’s least efficient offenses, currently ranked outside the top 100 FBS teams in success rate, EPA per play and havoc allowed. They’re averaging just 300 yards of offense per game at less than 5 yards per play.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are allowing 380 yards per game at over 6 yards per play. That is the formula for a losing football team.
The defense has actually been alright in the secondary, but like Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan cannot stay out of standard downs. They are 110th in EPA per play allowed in standard downs, and opposing offenses are staying in those short-yardage downs over 70% of the time.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Jack Salopek is completing barely over 50% of his passes and has four touchdowns to five interceptions. He looked better last week, but it was against FCS New Hampshire. The whole team looked good against New Hampshire, but that doesn’t say much. They can only hope that the team has found something to build on in the win.
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan Pick
The key to this game will be the weather. There is expected to be 15 mph cross-field winds during game time, and that could mess with two offenses that have stalled recently.
Plus, there is no reason to have faith in the Western Michigan offense to move the ball against anyone, even a team as defensively atrocious as the Eagles.
Meanwhile, maybe the Broncos’ half-decent secondary — combined with the wind — can keep Taylor Powell and a good Eastern Michigan wide receiver corps at bay. That will force the Eagles to the ground more and could slow the pace of the game.
The sharp money is on the under, dropping the number almost 2 points from opening. At anything over 55, bet the under.
Best NCAAF Bet: Under 55.5 (-102) at WynnBet Sportsbook | Bet to 55 (-110)
