The No. 4 Michigan Wolverines will head to Bloomington, Ind. for a matchup against the Indiana University Hoosiers this Saturday. The undefeated Wolverines are coming off a solid 13-point win over Iowa that was never in doubt. In contrast, the 3-2 Hoosiers are coming off a 14-point loss to Nebraska. The sportsbooks predict Michigan will beat Indiana handily.
Michigan enters the week at 3-2 against the spread and 4-0-1 to the under. Indiana enters at 1-4 against the spread and 3-2 to the over. While the trends point to little more than a lean on the under, a deeper dive into what those trends actually mean reveals a much sharper play.
Michigan vs. Indiana Week 6 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Michigan vs. Indiana Betting Odds
Wolverines Playing Complementary Football
The Michigan Wolverines have done everything well. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy ranks sixth in passer rating and the team ranks eighth in yards per pass attempt (9.3). Running back Blake Corum ranks 12th in individual yards per carry (YPC) and the team ranks ninth (5.6). The defense ranks fourth in yards per play allowed (3.9) as well. Michigan's solid overall play has earned the program the fourth-best rating in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), in which the offense ranks eighth and the defense ranks fifth.
Jim Harbaugh's team is well balanced, which allows him to play complementary football and bleed out the clock. While Michigan ranks only 43rd in time of possession percentage, the Wolverines use 28.5 seconds per offensive play, which ranks 12th-slowest in the FBS. Harbaugh has also instilled discipline into the Wolverines as Michigan surrenders the third-fewest penalty yards per game (26.8) and ranks eighth-best in giveaways per game (0.4).
The Wolverines have routinely started their games strong. Michigan ranks third in points per first half (26.6) and second in points allowed per first half (2.6). Maryland scored a season-high 13 first-half points against the Wolverines in Week 4, but Michigan bounced back the week after by Iowa out in the first half the next week. The defensive trends date back to last season -- Michigan finished the year fourth in points per first half allowed (7.4). However, the upgraded offense has improved substantially over its 35th-best showing in points per first half (16.4).
Hoosiers Offense Relying on Defense
The Indiana Hoosiers have been chaotic. After a narrow, perhaps undeserved win over Illinois in Week 1, the Hoosiers stormed out to a 3-0 record after wins over FCS Idaho and Western Kentucky. Then the wheels fell off -- Indiana suffered a blowout loss to Cincinnati and a 14-point loss to Nebraska in consecutive weeks. The Hoosiers enter the week ranked a lowly 71st in the FEI, with their offense ranked 102nd and defense ranked 31st.
Head coach Tom Allen and offensive coordinator Walt Bell haven't found a way to get the Hoosiers downfield. Indiana ranks 81st in yards per game (371) but fastest in seconds per play, which Indiana ranks a disastrous 117th in yards per play (4.2). Quarterback Connor Bazelak ranks 117th in passer rating among 122 eligible FBS quarterbacks and has completed only 52.8% of his passes. Indiana's leading rusher, Shaun Shivers, ranks 105th among 159 eligible rushers in YPC.
The Hoosiers have relied on respectable defensive play and takeaways. Indiana ranks 58th in yards allowed per play (5.4) but an impressive 20th in takeaways per game (2). Without the positive field position generated by takeaways, the Hoosiers would not be averaging 25.3 points per game and 14.3 points per first half. Of Indiana's 101 points scored against FBS opponents, 24 came as a direct result of opponent turnovers.
Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction
Michigan's games routinely stay under despite the Wolverines scoring boatloads of points. The numbers bear this out -- Michigan ranks fourth in points per game (45.4) and fourth in points per game allowed (11.6). As a result, buying the team total under for Michigan's opponents has been a sharp bet this year.
Indiana's team total for this game sits between 18.5 and 17.5 across the market. While the Hoosiers have surpassed that number in all of their games his season, quite a bit of that scoring has come from takeaways that they won't get against Michigan. The Wolverines have allowed 19 points or more just once all year, and fading Indiana's offense against Michigan's solid defense should pay off on Saturday.
Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction: Indiana Under 18.5 (-120) at DraftKings
