With one weekend to go before the College Football Playoff gets under way, bettors have just one bowl game to bet this Saturday: the Hawaii Bowl. The San Diego State Aztecs square off with the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. San Diego State is favored to win the Hawaii Bowl in the college football odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Hawaii Bowl predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. On to our Middle Tennessee State-San Diego State odds and predictions for Saturday.
College Football Odds: Hawaii Bowl Odds for MTSU-SDSU
MTSU Performed Poorly in 2022
Middle Tennessee State (7-5) had a solid but unspectacular season. The Blue Raiders knocked off the Miami Hurricanes but were a pedestrian 4-4 in Conference USA, including home losses to the conference champions, UTSA and Louisiana Tech. The Blue Raiders ended the regular season ranked 107th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and their offense and defense each were below 100th.
The Blue Raiders rely on a fast-paced passing attack. They rank 21st in passing play percentage (55.5%) but only 88th in yards per pass attempt (6.7). Quarterback Chase Cunningham ranks 62nd in passing efficiency (136.42), between Toledo's Dequan Finn (136.43) and UNLV's Doug Brumfield (136.39). Cunningham regressed from his performance in the metric last season (152), and his pass blockers rank a similarly unremarkable 70th in sack rate (6.4%).
The Middle Tennessee defense can put up a fight against the run but can't stop the pass. The Blue Raiders rank a solid 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.6) and 27th in average line yards. However, their passing defense ranks an abysmal 93rd in yards allowed per attempt (7.6) and is last in passing yards allowed per game (304.3). Their offense, which ranks 12th in seconds per play (21.9) and 107th in average time of possession (47%), hasn't given them much time to stay fresh.
After Slow Start, SDSU Looking Strong
San Diego State (7-5) started poorly but built some momentum after the firing of offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski in October. The Aztecs were 5-2 after his departure, losing to Fresno State and Air Force. The Aztecs dialed back their emphasis on the run and transitioned to quarterback Jalen Mayden under center. Mayden ranks 36th in passing efficiency (147.2), between Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa (147.23) and Charlotte's Chris Reynolds (147.14).
The Aztecs ended the regular season ranked 85th in the FEI. They did so primarily because of their defense, which ranked 49th, and not at all because of the offense, which ranked 123rd. The San Diego State defense ranks a solid 33rd in yards allowed per game (5). The passing defense ranks 34th in yards allowed per attempt (6.7) and 48th in sack rate (6.8%). The unit ranks a more impressive 33rd in passing-down sack rate (10%).
The San Diego State offense will need to continue its recent momentum. The Aztecs rank 102nd in yards per play (4.9) but are 41st over the past three games (5.9). Mayden has averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt, a major step up from opening-week starter Braxton Burmeister, who averaged 3.7 yards per pass attempt. Those looking at seasonlong trends won't notice the extent to which SDSU's offense improved.
Final Hawaii Bowl Prediction & Pick
MTSU head coach Rick Stockstill is no stranger to bowl games. He is 3-6 in his career and 3-6 against the spread. This is Stockstill's fourth "island destination" bowl. He coached the Bahamas Bowl twice and the Hawaii Bowl once. He was 1-2 against the spread in those contests, covering in last year's Bahamas Bowl after the Blue Raiders scored 17 fourth-quarter points.
Despite Stockstill having coached the Blue Raiders in nine bowl games, MTSU has won just one first half. The Blue Raiders took an early lead in the 2017 Camellia Bowl and never looked back. Stockstill has only ever tied or lost the opening half of a bowl game. His Blue Raiders own an average first-half margin of -1.1 this season.
Bettors should wager enough to profit a half-unit on SDSU to win the opening half. The Aztecs own a respectable first-half margin of +2.2 on the year and of +4.7 over their past three games. They even played in this stadium just last year, so the trip to Hawaii likely won't be as much of a distraction. Bettors can head to DraftKings Sportsbook for the best price on the market. New users can even take advantage of a deposit match of up to $1,000!
Final Hawaii Bowl Pick for MTSU-SDSU: SDSU First Half Moneyline (-190 for 0.95 Unit) at DraftKings
