College football is back to take over our Saturdays for the next few months and we start off with a banger in the midwest, as the reigning Big Ten West champion Iowa Hawkeyes play host to FCS powerhouse South Dakota State.
Despite Iowa opening as a 20.5-point home favorite and receiving a steady share of action, the line on this game has actually moved down to the current number of 16, as it seems sharp money is piling in on the Jackrabbits.
With a total of only 44 points, it looks like we should be in for a good defensive battle as Iowa and South Dakota State meet for the first time ever on the football field. This game will also feature 50 years of head coaching experience on the sidelines as South Dakota State’s John Stiegelmeier enters his 26th season leading the Jackrabbits while Kirk Ferentz begins his 24th season in Iowa City.
Seeing the number change so drastically in these games is a good opportunity to remind everyone to always check out the best college football betting odds at OddsShopper, where they always find the best odds available. Let’s get into a breakdown of the game and my SDSU vs Iowa prediction for Week 1.
SDSU vs. Iowa Week 1 College Football Betting Picks & Prediction
Can Jackrabbits Challenge the Hawkeyes?
While games between FBS and FCS schools are often extremely one-sided, we should be in for a treat here, as even on the road, South Dakota State presents a big challenge for Ferentz and the Hawkeyes.
Coming off a season in which they went 11-4 and made a deep run into the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs, South Dakota State is ranked in the top three in both FCS polls, as they look to be even stronger with starting quarterback Mark Gronowski returning after missing last season with an injury. The Missouri Valley Conference offensive player of the year two years ago as a true freshman, Gronowski is a true dual-threat quarterback, passing for 15 touchdowns and running for seven more in his first college campaign.
This offense is not all about Gronowski, however, as the quarterback has plenty of weapons surrounding him. Tight end Tucker Kraft (65 receptions, 780 yards, 6 touchdowns in 2021) and wide receiver Jaxon Janke (72-1165-5) are proven threats through the air while running back Isaiah Davis is a preseason All-American and Walter Payton Award candidate. If that was not enough, All-American offensive linemen Mason McCormick and Garret Greenfield are back to protect Gronowski & Co.
Defensively speaking, the Jackrabbits are led up front by linebackers Adam Bock and Isaiah Stalbird and in the secondary by veteran cornerbacks Malik Lofton and DyShawn Gales. Bock (125 tackles in 2021) hails from nearby Solon, Iowa, and was included in the 35-player watchlist for the Buck Buchanan Award given to the most outstanding defensive player in the FCS. Included in those 125 tackles were 9.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. The Iowa offense could be in for a long day if they do not get him under control.
Iowa Defense Looks Stout Again
Iowa, on the other hand, continues to fly under the radar despite winning the Big Ten West last year. With stud tailback Tyler Goodson gone after declaring for the NFL Draft, look for both Gavin Williams and Leshon Williams (not related) to lead the Hawkeyes offense as quarterback Spencer Petras looks to improve on an up and down 2021. Losing Goodson and All-American lineman Tyler Linderbaum surely hurts, but Iowa is set up nicely on offense as three of their top four receivers and two tight ends all return.
Sophomore wideouts Arland Bruce IV (274 all-purpose yards, four touchdowns) and Keagan Johnson (20 yards per catch, two touchdowns) showed big-time upside, while senior Nico Ragaini led all receivers with 26 catches.
While question marks remain on offense, Iowa’s defense should only be better with another year of experience under Phil Parker as the defensive coordinator.
Parker is known for his bend, don’t break style as he leads a unit that finished 13th in the nation in points allowed per game, giving up only 19.2. It is not far-fetched at all to suggest Iowa’s 2022 defense could rival any of its Ferentz-era predecessors as seven different returnees logged at least 200 snaps last year.
Led by second-team All-American Jack Campbell and the Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year Riley Moss, the Hawkeyes’ defense should present a big challenge for Gronowski and the South Dakota State offense despite their FCS success.
South Dakota State vs Iowa Prediction
Simply put, Iowa needs to take care of business at home, and even with all the accolades on the South Dakota State sidelines the Hawkeyes are just much more talented on both sides of the ball.
There is no doubt South Dakota State has the potential to be pesky in this spot, but from Iowa’s standpoint they are still an FCS opponent for the Hawkeyes and when ranking their most difficult opponents in 2022, the Jackrabbits are arguably 11th out of 12 teams.
As Lee Corso would say, however, “not so fast my friends,” and it would be a big mistake to completely overlook South Dakota State here. While it would be extremely surprising to see Iowa actually lose this game, 16 points are just too many to give in this spot as the Jackrabbits look to prove they can consistently play with the FBS big boys.
Expect a battle in Iowa City at Kinnick Stadium with South Dakota State falling just short but keeping this game well within the number.
Best NCAAF Bet Today: South Dakota State +16
