Miami (Ohio) will travel to Buffalo for its first conference game in the MAC. The Buffalo Bulls technically sit atop the conference with a 1-0 record despite having just a 1-3 start to the season.
The RedHawks are 2-2 with losses to Cincinnati and Kentucky. Miami lost both of those games by at least 20 points, covering as 22.5-point underdogs in a 38-17 matchup against Cincinnati. This past weekend, the RedHawks did strike a win over Big Ten side Northwestern. Its other win wasn’t quite as impressive as the RedHawks beat Robert Morris 31-14. Miami’s key struggle this season have been on offense, having been held to under 20 points in every game against a FBS side.
As for the Bulls, they have won just one game. However, you can’t blame their offense. Buffalo has scored 25 or more points in 3 of 4 games and topped 30 in 2 of 4. It lost its only FCS matchup so far this season with a 37-31 defeat at the hands of Holy Cross. Buffalo defeated Eastern Michigan 30-31 this past weekend, striking its first win of the year. It also has a 31-10 loss to Maryland on the road and 38-26 road loss to Coastal Carolina.
This game will be held at UB Stadium, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 1.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo Predictions and Week 5 Picks
Which Side Will Come To Play As Similar Resumes Take The Field?
The only time Miami has strung together two good halves was against the Wildcats this past weekend, and that becomes a bit less impressive when you realize that starting QB Aveon Smith had just 62 passing yards and was just 7-of-19.
The team scored 7 in the first half and 10 in the second half against Kentucky. They were down 13-10 at half and lost by 24. Against Cincinnati, they ere down 24-17 at half and lost by 21. Even against Robert Morris, the Redhawks were up 24-7 at half and ended up tying the Colonials in the second half.
The Bulls have a similar story as they have just one win on the season, and their defense just hasn’t been consistent. They’ve given up at least 30 points in every game this year, which is a big problem. Even in their win against the Eagles, the Bulls gave up 31 through 3 quarters.
Maryland RB Roman Hemby went for 114 rushing yards against the Bulls and Holly Cross QB Matthew Sluka went for 146 yards on 25 attempts. Its run defense has been a problem, and putting together two consistent halves hasn’t been something they’ve done much of this season.
The Bulls have been getting better as the season progresses, and there is something to that as they have a slew of new starters. From QB Cole Snyder to 6 players on both sides of the ball, the Bulls have more turnover than the bulk of FBS programs. Putting that skill together has been more difficult than expectedly with 4 of their 5 secondary starters joining the program this season.
Miami’s Struggle Offense Has Yet To Impress
At least some of this can be attributed to the lack of success Smith, now a junior, has had. He had just 346 yards on 65 attempts with a noticeable 49% completion rate. The real strength of this attack is in its run game.
RB Keyon Mozee has 246 rushing yards through 4 games and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average. With RB Kevin Davis having similar production, the Redhawks will undoubtedly look to attack the Bulls on the ground. This is an area that Miami should be able to abuse the Bulls in.
The Redhawks have struggled offensively, but many of these Power 5 sides, which Cincinnati will be in a few seasons, have far more skilled players in the trenches. The Bulls shouldn’t be able to hang.
With Ohio having at least put together capable attacks in the first half against Cincinnati and Kentucky, the hope should be there that it figure it out against MAC sides. Miami only has MAC teams left on their schedule. Chuck Martin hasn’t had a losing season in Oxford since 2017, and this roster has far more fluidity with just 4 new transfers, not 12 new starters. With only 4 games under each team’s belt, that comradery could be a factor.
Miami vs. Buffalo Prediction
The Redhawks are road dogs against a Bulls team that has consistently struggled this season. Buffalo has just one win over Eastern Michigan and lost to an FCS side. It hasn’t used home-field advantage much either with its only home game being that 37-31 loss to Holy Cross.
Miami has hung with the undefeated Wildcats and 2021 CFP-making Bearcats. Considering that success and the lack of continuity and success in Buffalo both this season and last (2-6 in MAC play in 2021), back the Redhawks in this situation.
Best NCAAF Bet: Redhawks +1.5 (-107) at PointsBet | Playable to +1.5 (-120)
