Iowa City, Iowa will be the site of one of the more interesting games of Week 9 of the college football season — but for all the wrong reasons. As we continue our college football odds stories, we present our Northwestern-Iowa prediction and picks.
This week’s matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Northwestern Wildcats won’t make the main TV on Saturday afternoon, but it will likely lead to plenty of conversation while this Big Ten battle is underway. Thanks to a laughably low total of 37.5, college football fans and bettors alike will be fascinated to see how much offense is on display when these two teams meet.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends to get a better idea of what is at stake ahead of Saturday’s matchup.
Northwestern-Iowa Prediction, Odds And Picks
Starting with the spread, Iowa (3-4) is an 11-point favorite over a Northwestern (1-6) squad that hasn’t won on American soil yet this season. The Hawkeyes are 3-4 against the spread to this point, as are the Wildcats.
But we only care about the total for this game, which is currently 37.5 at most sportsbooks. Circa Sports in Las Vegas was the first to release this total at 31.5 last Sunday, which would have likely been the lowest total in college football. Savvy bettors pounced on the over at once, and other sportsbooks have adjusted. Circa now lists the total at 38.
To get a better sense of why this total is so low, let’s dive into what these offenses have done thus far.
Northwestern Wildcats
Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats haven’t been in the win column since their 31-28 victory over Nebraska in Dublin, Ireland during Week 0. Since then, Northwestern has failed to score more than 24 points at any point during its six-game losing skid.
Northwestern ranks 118th in the nation in scoring with an average of 18.6 points per game. The Wildcats rank 114th in EPA (expected points added) per play, including a 128th ranking in rushing EPA through seven outings.
The Wildcats have made a switch at quarterback over the last couple of weeks. Ryan Hilinski, who had taken every snap up to his team’s 42-7 loss to Wisconsin on Oct. 8, was replaced by Brendan Sullivan under center. Sullivan went 18-of-24 for 143 yards to go along with one touchdown and two interceptions against Maryland last time out.
Sullivan will need to show more improvement in his third career game if the Wildcats hope to threaten the Hawkeyes as a double-digit underdog.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes have never been mistaken for an offensive juggernaut, but this season has reached a new low. They are averaging 14 points per game, which ranks 128th out of 131 teams in all of college football. How are there three teams with a worse scoring average?
Iowa has finished with a single-digit output thrice already, including a 9-6 loss to Illinois on Oct. 8. This Kirk Ferentz squad has produced a season-high 27 points twice, which came during a back-to-back stretch against Nevada and Rutgers.
The Hawkeyes rank 126th in EPA per play, while sitting 121st in rushing EPA and 117th in passing EPA. They have recorded seven offensive touchdowns in total, five of which came via the run.
Best Northwestern-Iowa Bet
The point of this preview was to try to figure out if we trust these teams to score enough to reach 38 points combined. There is certainly an argument that both offenses could be so bad that it leads to a favorable field position for both programs, which probably explains why bettors attacked the over right away.
I’m having a hard time getting there with the total at this point. The total might be extremely low, but it honestly feels similar to a Service Academy game where the under is going to find a way to come through in the end.
Give me a small bet on the under in a pathetic display of organized football on Saturday.
Best Northwestern-Iowa Prediction: Under 38 (-110) on Circa Sportsbook
