The No. 14 Oregon State Beavers and No. 21 Washington State Cougars are scheduled to face off at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday in what should be a fun watch on FOX. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Oregon State-Washington State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Oregon State-Washington State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Oregon State-Washington State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Oregon State: -162 | Wazzu: +134
Oregon State -3: -115 | Wazzu +3: -105
Over 58.5: -115 | Under 58.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Oregon State-Washington State Pick & Prediction
The No. 14 Oregon State Beavers and No. 21 Washington State Cougars will square off in a battle between the final Pac-12 teams without a new conference. Both teams are off to solid 3-0 starts, although the Cougars have the best win — a nine-point home victory over Wisconsin — of the two teams. Oregon State enters Week 4 ranked seventh in yards per play (7.5), well ahead of 51st-ranked Washington State (5.5), and 22nd in yards per play allowed (4.4), also ahead of their 61st-ranked opponent (5.3). However, Wazzu’s more difficult schedule means that the Cougars enter Week 4 ranked 30th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), close behind the 23rd-ranked Beavers.
The Beavers are a 3-point road favorite for this one, but I’m not really interested in the side. Oregon State runs a slow-paced, run-heavy offensive scheme that will drain plenty of time off the clock. Washington State’s pass-heavy air raid scheme makes up for that somewhat, but not enough to warrant a total this high. Both sides have the defensive talent necessary to make life difficult for their opponents. These teams combined to score 34 points in Corvallis last year and 55 in Pullman a year before, but the total sits all the way up at a bloated 58.5.
Defensively, these teams match up well against each other’s offenses. The Cougars rank 14th in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.6) after allowing 4.3 last year. The Beavers rank 40th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.5) after coughing up only 6.4 last year. Oregon State’s defense enters Week 4 ranked 52nd in the FEI, slightly worse than Washington State’s 27th-ranked unit. But even if the defenses do cough up some splash plays, the offenses aren’t all that fast — Washington State ranks 41st in seconds per play (24.8) after spending 24.1 last year, relatively slow for an air read offense, while Oregon State ranks 78th (26.8) after spending 29.3 last year.
I’m just not sure how these teams combine for 57, let alone 59. Both sides have been good to over bettors so far this year — they’re both at 2-1 on the year — but it took some weirdness for them to be above .500 for the over. A last-second meaningless touchdown from San Jose State pushed Oregon State’s Week 1 game over. These teams were a combined 16-10 to the under last year and were 15-11 a year before that. Games played in Pullman are 10-6 to the under since 2021 as well.
Check out our college football picks for Week 4! >>
I wrote in the early week column that I suspected this total would close a few points below the opening number as a reason to jump on the 56.5 while you can. I was wrong. The over has jumped to 59 after picking up lots of money, drawing 78% of the handle on 80% of the tickets. I’m not sure that action is sharp. For one, the ticket share outweighs the handle; for another, both offenses are relying on quarterbacks who are far outperforming their career performances by passing efficiency — Wazzu’s Cam Ward has a 177 this year but a 138.9 overall, while Oregon State’s D.J. Uiagalelei has a 162.8 this year but a 127.8 overall. Ward recorded a 102.4 against Oregon State last year, his worst regular-season performance of the year.
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Oregon State-Washington State Week 4 Pick: Under 59 -110 at DraftKings
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