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Bears-Chiefs Pick & Prediction: Teaser Bet for Week 3 (Sept. 24)

The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Chicago Bears in Week 3, and this game has some serious blowout potential. Chicago has looked terrible all season. The team’s defensive coordinator just resigned mid-week. It’s shaping up to be another tough year at Halas Hall. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Bears-Chiefs betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!

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Bears-Chiefs Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 3

Bears-Chiefs Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Bears: +570 | Chiefs: -820
Bears +12.5: -110 | Chiefs -12.5: -110
Over 48.5: -105 | Under 48.5: -115

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Bears-Chiefs Pick & Prediction

At this point, two things have become clear about the Chicago Bears. First, their terrible play last year wasn’t intentional — their offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, appears to be genuinely terrible. Second, quarterback Justin Fields, whether as a function of Getsy’s incompetent play design or not, holds onto the ball for far too long. Fields leads the NFL in pocket time (2.8 seconds) after leading last year (2.7). The 55 sacks he took last year and the 10 he has taken this year should be read against his offensive line ranking second in pass-block win rate in 2022 (68%) and 11th this year (61%).

Week 3’s road game against the Kansas City Chiefs won’t be pretty. Fields will line up against a defensive line that got star tackle Chris Jones back last week. Jones owns a PFF grade of 92.8 so far this season and recorded a 92 last year. He led all defensive tackles in pass rush win rate at 21%, beating the next-best players by four percentage points. Jones demonstrated that he hadn’t missed a step in his return to action last week, and he’ll menace the interior of Chicago’s offensive line next week. Unless Getsy can scheme around him or Fields learns to spend less time in the pocket, Chicago’s passing attack won’t get much done.

But Kansas City’s defense aside, the Chiefs simply have a massive advantage over the Bears. Through two games this year, the Chiefs rank 17th in expected points added (EPA) per play, while the Bears rank a dismal 27th. Patrick Mahomes ranks a not-so-great 14th in Ben Baldwin’s EPA-CPOE composite score, but Fields ranks 31st of 32 eligible quarterbacks in the metric. Although Fields has elite mobility, exciting receivers and a solid offensive line, he lacks the processing speed and the coaching necessary to outscore an efficient Kansas City attack. The books know this, which is why they’re listing the Chiefs as massive 12.5-point home favorites for Sunday’s game.

Check out our top picks for NFL Week 3 here! >>

I don’t love backing Kansas City to cover a spread that Chicago could easily backdoor with some late-game shenanigans. Variance is a hell of a thing. Kansas City is only 27-33-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2020 as well, which, while better than Chicago’s miserable 19-33-1 ATS record, still isn’t good. The Chiefs own the second-best margin of victory through that span (+6.5), but the books just aren’t creating that much value for us to exploit, especially at this number. The Chiefs are a great team to add as an NFL Week 3 teaser pick if you’re getting under the key number of seven, but I’m not betting them straight. Pair them with the Dallas Cowboys for a sharp two-team, six-point teaser.

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Bears-Chiefs NFL Week 3 Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (Teaser Pick) at DraftKings

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