After finishing the regular season 9-3, the NC State Wolfpack take on the 8-4 Kansas State Wildcats as 2.5-point underdogs in a game with a 47.5-point total. Let’s dive into our NC State-Kansas State odds, pick and prediction for this year’s Pop-Tarts Bowl. If you’re looking for more college football bets, check out our college football betting tools and our guide to betting on football.
Pop-Tarts Bowl Pick: NC State-Kansas State Bet
Pop-Tarts Bowl Odds
Odds via bet365
NC State: +120 | Kansas State: -140
NC State +2.5: -110 | Kansas State -2.5: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Expert: Matt Gajewski
Time: Thursday, Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET
NC State-Kansas State News & Notes
NC State Absences: QB MJ Morris, RB Jordan Houston, RB Michael Allen, WR Terrell Timmons, WR Porter Rooks, TE Cedd Seabrough, TE Fred Seabrough, DL CJ Clark, iOL Lyndon Cooper, LB Payton Wilson
NC State Coaching Changes: N/A
Kansas State Absences: QB Will Howard, QB Jake Rubley, RB Treshaun Ward, WR Phillip Brooks, WR RJ Garcia, WR Xavier Lloyd, TE Ben Sinnott, CB Will Lee, CB Kobe Savage, LB Nate Matlack
Kansas State Coaching Changes: OC Collin Klein
NC State-Kansas State Comparison
| Metric | NC State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Pace | 112th | 50th |
| Overall Offense | 110th | 21st |
| Run Blocking | 89th | 11th |
| Pass Blocking | 81st | 40th |
| Pass Rate | 84th | 88th |
| Overall Defense | 30th | 88th |
| Run Defense | 8th | 107th |
| Pass Rush | 79th | 105th |
| Coverage | 82nd | 54th |
Pop-Tart Bowl Pick & Prediction
A matchup with key departures on both sides, Kansas State takes on NC State as a slight favorite here. Interestingly, both teams will be without their preferred starting quarterback. With that said, defensive weaknesses on both sides, set this game up for potential fireworks.
On the NC State side, the Wolfpack returned to Brennan Armstrong under center after MJ Morris elected to preserve his redshirt and enter the transfer portal. Armstrong possesses strong mobility with 522 rushing yards this year. That will remain important behind a middling offensive line, allowing pressure on 26.6% of his drop backs. While numerous role players entered the portal, KC Conception will play after catching 64 balls for 767 yards this year.
As for the Kansas State defense, this unit ranked 88th this year and will now play at less than full strength. This team looks particularly depleted in the secondary after losing Will Lee and Kobe Savage in the secondary. NC State scored 30+ points in their final two games against Virginia Tech and North Carolina, which should continue here against a weakened Kansas State defense.
As for the Kansas State offense, this team lost plenty of contributors including Will Howard, Treshaun Ward, Phillip Brooks, RJ Garcia, and Ben Sinnott. Fortunately, Kansas State build elite depth on offense, including at quarterback where elite recruit Avery Johnson will start. Johnson will still have multiple capable receivers in Jayce Brown, Jadon Jackson, and Keagan Johnson available for this game. On top of that, the Kansas State offensive line has played well and NFL-bound Cooper Beebe will suit up. This should pave the way for Johnson and 1,000-yard rusher DJ Giddens on the ground.
Matchup wise, NC State could have their work cut out for them with stud linebacker Payton Wilson off to the NFL. This team already ranked 79th in pass rush and 82nd in coverage. Without Wilson, their top ten run defense will now take a hit. With multiple elite players still on the Kansas State offense, points could come quickly and often in this game.
Pop-Tart Bowl Pick & Prediction and our NC State-Kansas State Bet: over 47.5 (-110) at bet365
