The San Diego State Aztecs are set to face the Nevada Wolf Pack this weekend. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our college football odds series, which includes our San Diego State-Nevada prediction, odds and pick we have laid out below.
The Mountain West Conference has turned into dust this season. These two teams prove that.
Neither San Diego State nor Nevada can move the ball, and each team has massive defensive holes. San Diego State is 1-1 in conference play, and Nevada is 0-3. And the teams are a combined 3-10 ATS this season.
San Diego State (3-3) is off a bye and a win over Hawaii. Nevada (2-5) just lost its fifth straight game, to the Rainbow Warriors. That explains why the Aztecs are 7-point road favorites.
CFB Odds: San Diego State-Nevada Odds
Braxton Burmeister Hasn’t Saved the SDSU Offense
Braxton Burmeister was supposed to save the Aztecs offense. He was a solid dual-threat quarterback at Virginia Tech and managed to get by as a passer, especially in his fourth year.
The offense has not been saved. Burmeister is averaging close to 5.0 YPC, but his passing YPA has dropped to an abysmal 3.7. The Aztecs are a heavy rush-first offense, but those are still pathetic numbers. At least 2021 quarterback Lucas Johnson averaged 6.7 YPA.
We can’t blame it all on Burmeister. The offensive line is inexperienced and talentless, and the wide receiver core is thin.
More surprisingly, the defense has severely underperformed.
The Aztecs have always been good defensively under head coach Brady Hoke, and that carried them to a 12-win season in 2021. This season, they allow 4.7 YPC and a 60% completion rate, and are PFF’s third-worst tackling team.
The pass rush is nonexistent, and the defensive line ranks 102nd in Line Yards. Plus, the Aztecs can’t create much Havoc anymore.
San Diego State can still prevent the explosive play. It is top 30 nationally in Rush EPA per play allowed.
The best quality is SDSU’s special teams. It is SP+’s fourth-ranked unit, and the team ranks second in average field position allowed. Punt returner Jordan Byrd has helped the Aztecs to the 17th-best field position on offense.
Nevada’s Small Sample Size Limits Nate Cox
Nevada has been surprisingly good in the secondary. The Wolf Pack are ranked top-25 nationally in PFF’s coverage grades and are similarly successful from a Success Rate perspective.
However, teams pass against Nevada at the third-lowest rate in the nation. Maybe that’s because Nevada is one of the least-efficient rushing defenses in the nation, ranking 124th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
When a team allows that level of rush success, an opposing offense stays on schedule and never falls behind the chains. Which means there is no need to pass. Nevada’s success against the pass is a small-sample-size issue.
There’s a small-sample-size issue on offense too. Nevada is a top 60 team in Points Per Opportunity, but that’s only because they rarely get past the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Nevada ranks outside the top 110 FBS teams in these statistical categories:
Rush Success Rate
Pass Success Rate
Standard Downs Success Rate
Passing Downs Success Rate
Offensive Line Yards
Havoc Allowed
The Wolf Pack do have three receivers who have caught at least 20 passes, but quarterback Nate Cox is averaging just 5.8 YPA. So Nevada’s passing game hasn’t been much more effective than San Diego State’s.
There isn’t much here for Nevada. It has lost five straight after a 2-0 start by a combined score of 178-91. It’s ugly.
Final San Diego State-Nevada Prediction & Pick
Nevada is never the answer. The only answer for betting a Wolf Pack game is to bet against them.
But this line is stuck around -7 across the market, and it’s uncomfortable backing the San Diego State offense at such a key number. This line should be about SDSU -8.5, so consider betting on the Aztecs with two points of value.
The sharp money is coming in on Nevada, so this line could drop lower than a touchdown. If it does, bet that line immediately.
Final San Diego State-Nevada Pick: San Diego State -6.5 or better
