We have officially flipped the calendar from July to August, which means yes, Virginia, there is college football this month. While some may have their eyes fixed on the Power Five, I have mine trained on the Fun Belt — er, Sun Belt — in 2023. We saw this conference produce tons of upsets (and even more near-upsets) last season, with Sun Belt teams taking down Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Nebraska. North Carolina almost lost to two different Sun Belt teams. UCLA needed a last-second field goal to beat another. As we get ready for another fun season of college football action, I’ve got my 2023 Sun Belt predictions ready, and you’ll find them throughout this Sun Belt preview.
Looking for more 2023 college football and Sun Belt predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming college football season — make sure to check out the rest of our college football articles. Come back during the college football season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out now!
Sun Belt Bible: 2023 Sun Belt Betting Predictions & Preview
Sun Belt Futures Odds: 2023 Win Totals
East Division Betting Preview
Last year, the James Madison Dukes and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers tied for the Sun Belt East title at 6-2. According to preseason polling, James Madison is the favorite to win the East this year, with Coastal coming in third. However, it's important to note that JMU remains ineligible for postseason play, as the Dukes just made the move from FCS last season. Their absence makes the Sun Belt title race that much more interesting. The Sun Belt East owns a cumulative win total of 44.5, slightly ahead of the West at 40.5.
The Sun Belt is generally an offense-first conference, and last year's Sun Belt East was no exception. The division produced two of the FBS-leading quarterbacks in passing efficiency last season, JMU's Todd Centeio and Coastal's Grayson McCall. McCall has always stood out in the metric and even set the single-season record back in 2021. Centeio has left the Sun Belt for the CFL, but McCall is sticking around at Coastal after withdrawing from the transfer portal.
JMU and Coastal will face a number of challengers for the division's top spot. The Appalachian State Mountaineers rank second in preseason polling after a 2022 campaign that saw them beat Texas A&M at Kyle Field. The Marshall Thundering Herd slot in fourth after picking up a massive upset of their own last year at Notre Dame. All four programs picked up at least two first-place votes. The final program to earn a first-place vote, the Georgia Southern Eagles, are a distant fifth.
The Sun Belt East's final two programs, the Georgia State Panthers and the Old Dominion Monarchs, both missed out on bowl games last year, joining JMU and App State at home in the postseason. However, Georgia State was a possession away from beating North Carolina and suffered five one-possession losses last season. Their unappetizing record might just be causing some to overlook them -- the Panthers were East Division runners-up just two years ago.
Old Dominion Monarchs Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +8000 at BetMGM
Win Total: 3.5 -110/-110 at BetMGM
The books and poll agree on the three worst teams in the East Division. ODU went 3-9 and 2-6 in conference play last year under head coach Ricky Rahne, who returns for his third season. Their stunning road blowout over Coastal and their home upset over Virginia Tech were the lone bright spots in a tough season. Playing at home didn't go well -- ODU recorded an abysmal point differential of -57 in Richmond, good for an atrocious 1-5 record against the spread.
The numbers weren't terrible for the Monarchs, though. ODU ended the year ranked 62nd in yards per play (5.4), 81st in yards per play allowed (5.6) and 107th in the FEI. Since-departed quarterback Hayden Wolff ranked a not-awful 82nd in passing efficiency at 127.3 as well. Overall, ODU's numbers weren't terrible for a 3-9 team, and while they were the worst of any team in the East, they also outranked three Sun Belt West teams in the Fremeau Efficiency Index, a testament to the disparity between these divisions.
This year will remain tough for ODU. The Monarchs hemorrhaged talent in the offseason, recording a -8.5 net Transferring Assets and Returning Production (TARP), tied for third-worst in the conference. Quarterback is a major question mark with former FCS backup Grant Wilson likely to open the year as the starter. Tackle could be a problem as well, with all-conference Nick Saldiveri off for the NFL and Khadere Kounta headed to UCLA. Two of the team's three all-conference selections have left ODU. Three of their four all-conference honorable mention selections have left, too, with punter Ethan Duane the lone exception.
This year's schedule isn't good for ODU. In addition to the Sun Belt East, the Monarchs will host Louisiana-Lafayette and play at Southern Miss, two mid-tier Sun Belt West programs. Non-conference games at Virginia Tech and Liberty, now coached by Jamey Chadwell, formerly of Coastal, will also prove difficult. The Monarchs will host a rebuilding Wake Forest team and FCS Texas A&M Commerce to round out non-conference play. ODU's win total of 3.5 is efficient, so I don't advise playing either side.
Georgia State Panthers Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +3500 at BetMGM
Win Total: 5.5 +125/-150 at BetMGM
The Georgia State Panthers may not have had the highest of hopes last season, but their 4-8 and 3-5 in-conference season was still a disappointment after they went 8-5 and 6-2 in conference play in 2021, winning the Camellia Bowl over Ball State in the process. Quarterback Darren Grainger failed to build on his strong 2021 campaign by recording a moderately worse passing efficiency grade in 2022, but he still ranked 43rd overall in the metric, good for fifth in the Sun Belt. He also led the Panthers in rushing yards.
The numbers could've certainly been worse for head coach Shawn Elliott's Panthers last season. Georgia State ranked 53rd in yards per play (5.5) 74th in yards allowed per play (5.6) and 82nd in the FEI. Notably, this put them ahead of Georgia Tech in the latter metric for the third-straight season. They also outranked key East rivals in Georgia Southern, Coastal and ODU. Remember, this Georgia State squad was tied with Drake Maye's North Carolina Tar Heels deep in the fourth quarter. An offense that can keep pace with Maye can keep pace with any in the Sun Belt.
Relatively speaking, the offseason went okay for Georgia State. The offense got better, recording a +1.5 net TARP, but the defense suffered the maximum possible penalty at -5. No Sun Belt defense fared worse. Despite losing multiple weapons, the Panthers picked up plenty of transfers, including defensive lineman Henry Bryant (Louisville), who will have to make a splash immediately for defensive coordinator Chad Staggs, who heads to Atlanta from Conway. Staggs' defense regressed massively between 2021 and 2022, so this hire could go either way. However, the Panthers will benefit substantially from Grainger's return for a third season as the starter. A similar Georgia State squad nearly won the Sun Belt East in 2021, so it feels premature to write off this group -- they just need to get some more stops in close games.
The schedule could be better for Georgia State. Interdivisional games against Troy and at Louisiana-Lafayette could both go poorly, as both programs rank top four in the West. However, the non-conference schedule looks pretty good. Georgia State will host FCS Rhode Island and UConn in Weeks 1 and 2 before visiting Charlotte. A 3-0 start is very much in the cards for the Panthers. Their final non-conference game at LSU is almost certainly a loss, but home games against worse App State and JMU teams could go their way. Backing the Panthers to reach their potential from last season and achieve bowl eligibility at +138 (42%) via FanDuel is one of the best options on the board. Luck wasn't on their side last year -- Georgia State ranked 129th in TeamRankings' luck metric -- so let's hope for some positive regression this year.
Georgia Southern Eagles Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +2000 at BetMGM
Win Total: 6.5 +120/-145 at BetMGM
New head coach Clay Helton brought the Georgia Southern Eagles back to a bowl game in his first year at the helm, leading the team to a narrow Camellia Bowl loss against Buffalo. The Eagles went 6-7 and 3-5 in conference play last year, scoring two big wins, a road victory over Nebraska that led to Scott Frost's firing, and a home win over James Madison in October. Not much went well other than those games -- the Eagles finished a Sun Belt worst against the spread at 4-8-1 (33.3%).
Still, the numbers weren't terrible for Georgia Southern. The team ranked 53rd in yards per play, 74th in yards allowed per play and 84th in the FEI, putting them four spots ahead of Coastal. Helton still has a long way to go if he wants another shot in the Power Five after flaming out at USC, but it's a good sign that he remains committed to the pass -- his Eagles ranked second in passing play percentage (62.8%) last year, trailing only Mike Leach's Mississippi State Bulldogs.
The offseason was not good for Georgia Southern, but Helton may have secured an upgrade at quarterback. The Eagles suffered losses on both sides of the ball, recording a -9 net TARP, the third-worst in the conference. Quarterback Kyle Vantrease is gone, but replacing him is likely Tulsa graduate transfer Davis Brin, who recorded a passing efficiency grade of 147.1 last year that ranked 36th and was better than anything Vantrease recorded at Buffalo or Georgia Southern. The front seven lost defensive tackle Justin Ellis, who led the team in tackles for loss (10) and sacks (4.5).
Georgia Southern's schedule is mixed. Their non-conference games are all tough, except for their opener against FCS The Citadel, which should be a win. A home game against UAB and road trips to Wisconsin and Ball State should produce at least two losses with the possibility of a third. However, the Eagles will benefit from a light interdivisional schedule -- they'll host Louisiana-Monroe and visit Texas State, two weak Sun Belt West programs. The Eagles get to host Coastal and Georgia State as well. The market has bid up their win total from 5.5 to 6.5, and while I have faith in Clay Helton, I'm passing on the Eagles at that price.
Marshall Thundering Herd Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +700 at BetMGM
Win Total: 7.5 -110/-110 at BetMGM
Head coach Charles Huff brought the Marshall Thundering Herd back to a bowl in his second season, and this time, his team delivered with a win. They may have only taken down UConn in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, but a win is a win. Marshall's biggest victory of the year came in September with their upset of then-No. 8 Notre Dame. Marshall ended up 9-4 and 5-3 in conference play last year, the program's first in the Sun Belt.
The numbers were great for Marshall's defense, but the offense needs some help. The Herd ranked 94th in yards per play (5) but 10th in yards allowed per play (4.6). They also ranked a solid 67th in the FEI, fourth-best in the Sun Belt and second-best in the East. The team retained offensive coordinator Clint Trickett, whose scheme ranked 117th in passing-play percentage (40.4%) but 48th in seconds per play (24.8). Trickett was an internal hire after Memphis poached his boss, so the offense's regression from 30th in yards per play in 2021 (6.1) to 90th last season is especially egregious.
The offseason went alright. Marshall recorded a -3 net TARP, losing assets on both sides of the ball without losing a ton of ground to key Sun Belt rivals. While Quarterback Cam Fancher returns, he'll likely play as Rice transfer T.J. McMahon's backup. McMahon ranked 55th in passing efficiency last year with a 138.3, far better than 94th-ranked Fancher at 119.9. Losing breakout running back Khalan Laborn to the NFL will hurt, but 2021's breakout at the position, Rasheen Ali, returns after an injury cost him most of 2022. The defense returns most pieces aside from lineman Kody Cumberlander, who ranked second in both tackles for loss (10.5) and sacks (6.5). Marshall picked up Landyn Watson (TCU) to replace him, but Watson never recorded a stat in Fort Worth.
Marshall has a slightly easier-than-average schedule. Their interdivisional games, at South Alabama and against Arkansas State, come against the best and worst the Sun Belt West has to offer. Expect the Herd to split those games. Non-conference games against FCS Albany, at East Carolina, against Virginia Tech and at NC State are all in play as well. The Herd will host JMU but must visit Coastal and App State in games that could go a long way in deciding the division. While Marshall's stingy defense helped them keep games close, I don't have enough faith in their offense to win those close games to buy them at the current numbers.
Appalachian State Mountaineers Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +850 at BetMGM
Win Total: 6.5 -145/+120 at BetMGM
Although no win will ever top the App State Mountaineers' miraculous upset over the Michigan Wolverines in 2007, last year's win over Texas A&M at Kyle Field must come close. The victory followed a near-upset over UNC and preceded a last-second win over Troy, but after Week 3, App State's season went downhill fast. The Mountaineers ended the season at 6-6 and 3-5 in the conference. They failed to earn a Bowl invite.
Head coach Shawn Clark is back in Boone for another season despite how rockily last year went. App State ranked 28th in yards per play, 72nd in yards allowed per play and 69th in the FEI. An inability to get defensive stops characterized last year's team, and the unit itself ranked 93rd in the FEI. The Mountaineers gave up 63 points to UNC, 32 to James Madison, 36 to Texas State and 51 to Georgia Southern. Despite the hail mary win over Troy, App State ranked 130th in luck.
Clark has his work cut out for him this year. At -10 net TARP, App State is tied for the worst mark in the conference along with Texas State. Gone is quarterback Chase Brice, who ranked 21st in passing efficiency last year. Replacing Brice will be either redshirt freshman Ryan Burger or JUCO transfer Joey Aguilar, a pair of three-star recruits. The two have combined for six pass attempts at the FBS level. Star pass rusher Nick Hampton, who led the team in tackles for loss (9.5) and sacks (7), is gone, too. So is receiving touchdowns leader Henry Pearson is gone and the team's leaders in passes defended and interceptions.
App State's schedule isn't easy. The Mountaineers open the season against FCS Gardner Webb, which should be a win, but they'll then have to play at North Carolina and against East Carolina. Their Week 4 trip to Wyoming could go poorly, especially since the Cowboys returned almost their entire roster. The Mountaineers will get an easy interdivisional game against Louisana-Monroe but must host a more challenging Southern Miss squad later in the year. App State gets to host conference frontrunners Coastal and Marshall but must visit James Madison. App State's win total of 6.5 is efficient, so it's weird seeing them ranked so highly in preseason polling.
James Madison Dukes Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: Ineligible
Win Total: 8.5 +110/-130 at BetMGM
The James Madison Dukes tied with Coastal for the East Division title last year, but their FBS ineligibility kept them out of the postseason, leaving them at 8-3 and 6-2 in conference play. Head coach Curt Cignetti returns for a fifth season with the program he brought deep into the FCS postseason for three straight years before last season's entrance into the FBS and the Sun Belt. Unfortunately, he has his work cut out for him this year.
James Madison had an excellent FBS debut. The Dukes cleaned up in Sun Belt play and were ranked No. 25 in mid-October, only to suffer a one-touchdown road loss to Georgia Southern, a home loss to Marshall and a road loss to Louisville in consecutive weeks. But JMU still ended the year ranked 33rd in yards per play (5.9), sixth in yards allowed per play (4.5) and a Sun Belt-best 52nd in the FEI. Quarterback Todd Centeio ranked fourth overall in passing efficiency as well.
The offseason wasn't good for the Dukes. At -8.5 net TARP, JMU is tied for third-worst in the Sun Belt. The offense suffered a maximum penalty of -7. Centeio departed, along with lead receiver Kris Thornton and lead rusher Percy Agyei-Obese. I have my doubts about all of their replacements, but Centeio's looks especially vulnerable. Jordan McCloud, who flamed out at USF before transferring to Arizona as a backup, likely takes over under center. McCloud's career passing efficiency grade (124.7) slots in far below Centeio's (169). McCloud's best season in the metric (133.2) is worse than Centeio's worst with four-plus appearances (133.4).
The Dukes have an easy non-conference schedule but a tough interdivisional one. They'll host FCS Bucknell and UConn as well as visit Virginia and Utah State, which should yield between three and four wins. However, their conference schedule is brutal. They'll have to play both Troy and South Alabama, the favorites to win the Sun Belt West, and visit both Coastal and Marshall. To get to nine wins, they'll have to beat one of Troy, South Alabama, Marshall and Coastal without slipping up anywhere else. Given all of their transitions on offense, I'm buying the under 8.5 at -130 (56.5%) via BetMGM.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +500 at BetMGM
Win Total: 7.5 -135/+110 at BetMGM
After an 11-2 run in 2021, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers went 9-4 and 6-2 in conference play. Coastal's performance was good enough to get head coach Jamey Chadwell the same job at Liberty and offensive lineman Willie Lampkin a spot at North Carolina. However, quarterback Grayson McCall, who set the all-time single-season passing efficiency record back in 2021, returns to work with new head coach Tim Beck, formerly the offensive coordinator at NC State. The last time Beck had a quarterback appear in more than six games, Devin Leary ranked 21st. Beck also coached Texas' quarterbacks in 2019, helping Sam Ehlinger rank 19th in the metric.
The Chants are lucky to get McCall back because they looked terrible without him last season. McCall went down during conference play in late November, leading the Chants to use Jarrett Guest and Bryce Carpenter in his stead for the regular-season finale at James Madison. The Chats lost by 40 points. A hobbled McCall returned for the Sun Belt championship game against Troy but couldn't prevent the 19-point loss. Still, with McCall around for most of the campaign, Coastal ended the year ranked 35th in yards per play (5.9), 116th in yards allowed per play (6.1) and 88th in the FEI. Coastal also ranked second in luck, trailing only TCU.
Despite losing their head coach and star lineman, the Chats actually had a good offseason. Keeping McCall means a ton. Getting Beck, whose NC State Wolfpack ranked 32nd in yards per play last year (5), could help, too. The team returns its top four wide receivers, including Sam Pinckney and Sun Belt Freshman of the Year Jared Brown, and picks up a pair of Power Five tight ends in Kendall Karr and Cane Berrong, neither of whom saw the field much for North Carolina or Notre Dame, respectively. Coastal sits at a comfortable +1.5 net TARP because of their +4.5 on offense, so their already-bad defense could fare even worse.
Coastal's schedule is one of the East's easiest. After starting the year with a tough non-conference game at UCLA, they'll host now-FBS Jacksonville State and FCS Duquesne before traveling to West Point in November. Their interdivisional opponents, Arkansas State and Texas State, rank among the West's worst. Coastal will also have the benefit of hosting both Marshall and JMU. With McCall back for another year, it's hard to bet against Coastal. I recommend buying the over 7.5 at -122 (54.9%) via FanDuel -- just hope that McCall stays healthy.
West Division Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans went a dominant 12-2 and 7-1 in conference play last season on the way to a Sun Belt Championship. Troy had an argument for a Cotton Bowl appearance but was passed over in favor of Tulane. Troy went on to pull off a second-half comeback against Frank Harris and UTSA in the Cure Bowl made possible by aggressive defensive play, including a 61-yard interception return that set up the go-ahead touchdown for the Trojans. Unsurprisingly, Troy enters 2023 atop the preseason polling the West with 10 first-place votes.
Unlike the Sun Belt East, in which five teams received first-place votes, only two did so in the West: Troy and the South Alabama Jaguars. Like Troy, the Jaguars also went 7-1 in conference play last season. Their lone in-conference loss came against the Trojans. South Alabama went a similarly impressive 10-2 overall, with their only other loss coming in the final seconds of their trip to UCLA. If the Jaguars had held onto the lead that possession, or if UCLA had just missed the kick, I suspect the discourse surrounding the Sun Belt West would sound much different this year.
The rest of the Sun Belt West is profoundly unremarkable. A few other teams could contend for the division title, namely the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, but that seems unlikely -- just look at the oddsboard. Both programs barely achieved bowl eligibility last season. Louisiana lost all four of its all-conference first-team selections. Southern Miss kept its only such selection, Frank Gore Jr., who received first-team honors not as a running back but as an all-purpose player. He was also a second-team selection at his actual position.
The rest of the West isn't all that exciting. The Texas State Bobcats, Arkansas State Red Wolves and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks all own odds longer than +6000 (1.6%) to win the conference. It'd take a miracle for any of them to pull it off. All three programs ranked 114th or worse in the FEI last season and failed to achieve bowl eligibility. Only Texas State deemed last season's struggles worthy of a coaching change, so they hired G.J. Kinne from Incarnate Word, who just won the Southland Conference but fell to North Dakota State in the FCS Semifinals. None of these programs project as contenders in 2023 and all own win totals of 4.5 or worse.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +10000 at BetMGM
Win Total: 3.5 +125/-150 at BetMGM
Unlike the Sun Belt East, there is no clear worst team in the Sun Belt West. We'll start with Louisiana-Monroe because it earned the fewest points in the West from the coach's poll. ULM went an atrocious 4-8 and 3-5 in conference play last year. The Warhawks exceeded expectations by not finishing last in the West, which they were also projected to do in last season's coaches poll, but they avoided that fate by only the slimmest of margins. Aside from their win over FCS Nicholls, each of ULM's wins came by four points or fewer.
It should come as no surprise that the numbers painted a dark picture for ULM last year. The Warhawks ranked 102nd in yards per play (4.8), 117th in yards allowed per play (6.2) and 117th in the FEI. ULM outranked two Sun Belt teams in the first metric, one in the second and none in the third. While it makes sense that ULM would have such bad numbers because they scheduled road trips to Texas, Alabama and Army, the FEI is an opponent-adjusted metric, and they still ranked last in the Sun Belt.
The Warhawks had a strange offseason. They lost their best piece on offense, quarterback Chandler Rogers, who ranked 46th in passing efficiency last year. Leading rusher Malik Jackson is also gone, although his 507 yards and six touchdowns won't be impossible to replace. Leading receiver Tyrone Howell is back, but ULM still recorded the worst possible offensive TARP at -7. On defense, ULM picked up a former five-star pass rusher in Donell Harris to pair with an already-solid Kenard Snyder, helping the team record a +5 on that end of the ball.
This year's schedule isn't good for the Warhawks. They'll open the season by hosting Army and then FCS Lamar. Their other two non-conference games, at Texas A&M and at Ole Miss, should both result in blowout losses. ULM hosts App State and visits Georgia Southern in interdivisional play as well. In the West, the Warhawks will host Arkansas State but visit Texas State. They'll also host both South Alabama and Troy. The defensive improvements are encouraging and could help ULM pull off an unexpected upset, but I'm not playing them on futures markets, especially with the extra road game on the schedule.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +5000 at BetMGM
Win Total: 4.5 -115/-105 at BetMGM
The Arkansas State Red Wolves entered last season with low expectations and still failed to achieve them. They went 3-9 overall and 1-7 in conference play, with their lone win coming against -- you guessed it -- ULM. The high point of their season probably came somewhere in the second quarter against Ohio State, whom they then trailed by only a score. Their only other wins came against FCS Grambling State and technically-not-FCS UMass. Woof. The Red Wolves haven't cleared the four-win threshold since 2019.
The bad results weren't enough for Arkansas State to part ways with head coach Butch Jones, a former up-and-comer who is currently serving time in Jonesboro for wasting some of the best Tennessee rosters in recent memory. Jones' 3-9 season was an improvement over his 2-10 campaign the year before. Still, Arkansas State ranked 123rd in yards per play (4.4), 108th in yards allowed per play (5.9) and 114th in the FEI. They had ranked 94th in yards per play (5.1) 123rd in yards allowed per play (7.2) and 116th in the FEI a year before. I'll give Jones some credit for passing at the second-highest rate in the Sun Belt (55.5%), but the offensive line must improve after ranking 110th in sack rate allowed (9.1%).
The Red Wolves got worse in the offseason with a few big losses. Quarterback James Blackman is gone, leaving transfer JT Shrout to take the reins. Blackman ranked a steady 61st in passing efficiency last year as a 24-year-old super senior and has since earned a contract with the Miami Dolphins. In contrast, Shrout likely had nowhere else to go after ranking an FBS-worst 108th in passing efficiency for Colorado. He was the lone eligible quarterback to record a grade below 100. Shrout, another Tennessee flameout, at least has something to bond over with his head coach. The team's only all-conference first-team selection, tight end Seydou Traore, left for Colorado. Arkansas State recorded a -3 net TARP. Their kicker was their only preseason all-conference selection.
Arkansas State has a long year ahead. They'll open the year at Oklahoma before hosting Memphis. They'll then look to bounce back from a likely 0-2 start with a home game against FCS Stony Brook. They'll also visit UMass to round out non-conference play. Interdivisional opponents in Coastal and Marshall will likely add another two losses to their total. Arkansas State may only be favored three times this year, first against Stony Brook, then against UMass and again against Texas State. Their ability to clear the 4.5-win threshold hinges entirely on them sweeping those games and catching two Sun Belt opponents on a bad day. Give me the under at +100 (50%) via FanDuel.
Texas State Bobcats Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +6600 at BetMGM
Win Total: 4.5 +130/-165 at BetMGM
The Texas State Bobcats were bad last year, so they fired fourth-year head coach Jake Spavital, who had led the team to a 13-35 record. They replaced him with G.J. Kinne from FCS Incarnate Word. Kinne took over a Cardinals team that went 10-3 but lost in the second round of the FCS playoffs and improved them to 12-2 with a semifinal exit. Kinne had to replace the team's starting quarterback, which he did by picking up Lindsey Scott Jr., a seventh-year supersenior who had just recorded a season-worst passing efficiency grade of 138.4. Scott notched a passing efficiency grade of 197.7 in his only year with Kinne.
Kinne will have his work cut out for him in San Marcos. The Bobcats ranked 112th in yards per play (4.8), 79th in yards allowed per play (5.7) and 115th in the FEI last year. The defense, which was the lone bright spot for an otherwise bad team, still ranked a solid 73rd in the FEI, which obfuscates just how terrible the 125th-ranked offense truly was. But now that the team has moved on from Spavital and quarterback Layne Hatcher, who ranked 92nd in passing efficiency last year, a huge offensive jump isn't out of the question. Of course, major regression on defense isn't out of the question, either.
Texas State did not have a good offseason, per TARP. The team recorded a -10 net TARP, tied for a Sun Belt worst, with a -5.5 on offense and a -4.5. on defense. I don't know if that's fair. The Bobcats will start either Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) or T.J. Finley (Auburn) at quarterback next year. Both struggled in SEC play but were four- and three-star recruits, respectively. Kinne brought in most of his offensive line from Incarnate Word. He also added several Power Five defensive backs, including Joshua Eaton (Oklahoma), Darius Jackson (Missouri) and Kaleb Ford-Dement (Washington State). Adding depth in the secondary is crucial because Kinne will trust his defensive coordinator from Incarnate Word, Jonathan Patke, to import the base nickel defense that ranked second in the Southland Conference last year.
Texas State is the most difficult Sun Belt team to handicap because of the slew of transfers and the new coaching staff. However, it's not hard to conclude that they'll likely start the year 0-2 after visiting Baylor and UTSA. They should then storm back to 2-2 with home games against FCS Jackson State and Nevada. Conference play yields different challenges, including interdivisional games against Georgia Southern and at Coastal Carolina. Texas State hosts ULM but visits Arkansas State. The Bobcats get to host Troy and South Alabama as well. Still, five wins are very much in play, and I love the +140 (41.7%) for it hanging at DraftKings. The Bobcats are also the best conference longshot at +7000 (1.4%) via DraftKings because of its wide range of outcomes.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +4000 at BetMGM
Win Total: 5.5 +125/-150 at BetMGM
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have been the Southern Miss Frank Gore Jrs. over the last two seasons. The do-it-all running back has led the team in rushing yards through that stretch while also ranking as one of their top-five receivers in two separate seasons and second in passing touchdowns. Gore's efforts were enough to power the Golden Eagles to 7-6 and 4-4 in conference play. He helped them secure a LendingTree Bowl win over Rice as well, throwing one touchdown and running for two more in the victory.
The numbers weren't bad for Southern Miss. Head coach Will Hall helped the team make strides after the Golden Eagles moved from CUSA to the Sun Belt last season, and he returns this year. His Golden Eagles ranked 87th in yards per play (5.1), 51st in yards allowed per play (5.3) and 97th in the FEI. Those numbers aren't good, but in 2021, Southern Miss ranked 129th (3.8), 98th (5.9) and 121st, respectively. Hall used a rotation at quarterback, so none of his signal-callers reached the eligibility thresholds set by Sports-Reference. Zach Wilcke, who started the bulk of their games, would've ranked 95th of 109.
Southern Miss had one of the best offseasons in the Sun Belt. Unlike most programs, the Golden Eagles recorded a +1 net TARP. Their offense ranks fourth-best in the conference at +2. Former Clemson quarterback Billy Wiles headlines the Golden Eagles' acquisitions. Although Wiles didn't see much action behind D.J. Uiagalelei and Cade Klubnik, he was a three-star recruit who managed to walk on and earn a scholarship with the Tigers. Although he has thrown only four passes, two of them were completions, and one was a 25-yard touchdown strike. Wiles had received offers from programs like ODU, Tulane, FCS Holy Cross and FCS Harvard before choosing to enroll at Clemson.
The Golden Eagles may have the toughest non-conference schedule in the Sun Belt next year. Southern Miss opens the season against FCS Alcorn State but must then travel to Florida State and host Tulane in consecutive weeks. The team's final non-conference game is a road trip to Mississippi State. Their interdivisional games, which come at App State and against ODU, aren't terrible. The Golden Eagles get to host Texas State and ULM, two of the division's weaker programs, but must visit Arkansas State. The brutal non-conference schedule explains why the books have Southern Miss in the plus money just to get six wins. Southern Miss should be better next year, but the schedule means on-field improvement may not translate to an improved record. I'm passing on them at the current price.
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +800 at BetMGM
Win Total: 7.5 -105/-115 at BetMGM
It may feel like a long time ago now, but the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns entered the 2022 season as favorites to win the West, per preseason polling. They ranked so highly despite head coach Billy Napier leaving for Florida and taking several key pieces, like now-NFL guard O'Cyrus Torrence, with him. The Cajuns slid to 6-7 and 4-4 in conference play under new head coach Michael Desormeaux, who returns for a second stint at the helm. Desormeaux was an internal hire who previously served as a co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach under Napier.
Louisiana obviously regressed statistically in 2022, but the scale of that regression is concerning. In 2021, the Cajuns ranked 49th in yards per play (5.8), 15th in yards allowed per play (4.8) and 40th in the FEI. Last year, they dropped to 81st in yards per play (5.2), 45th in yards allowed per play (5.2) and 78th in the FEI. The team also dipped from a mediocre 70th (7.4) to a terrible 103rd (6.4) in yards per pass attempt. While we should cut Desormeaux some slack due to the transitioning nature of the program, he shouldn't get as much as other coaches because he was an internal hire.
The Cajuns did not have a good offseason, but it could have been worse. They recorded a -1 net TARP with a +0.5 on offense and a -1.5 on defense. Quarterback will likely remain an issue, as the team didn't bring in any help through the portal. The three of Ben Wooldridge, Chandler Fields and Zeon Chriss all saw action last year and recorded passing efficiency grades below 130. Wooldridge, the only one to reach the eligibility threshold at Sports-Reference, ranked 78th. The team lost leading rusher Chris Smith, leading receiver Michael Jefferson and several defensive weapons, including all-conference first-team defensive tackle Zion Hill-Green and a pair of defensive backs headed for greener pastures at Alabama and Tulane, respectively.
Although I'm not impressed by what we've seen out of Louisiana lately, they do have a light schedule. They open the year against FCS Northwestern State before traveling to ODU. Their other interdivisional opponent, Georgia State, must come to Lafayette. Louisiana's other non-conference games come at UAB, against Buffalo and at Minnesota. With that schedule, the Cajuns should pick up between four and five non-divisional wins. The Cajuns also get to host Texas State, ULM and Southern Miss. However, some books have responded to the Cajuns' light schedule by setting their win total at 7.5, so I'm either playing the under or not touching this one at all.
South Alabama Jaguars Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +325 at BetMGM
Win Total: 7.5 -165/+135 at BetMGM
I started writing about South Alabama with confidence that they'd run the Sun Belt West. But after I dug into their schedule, I have some doubts. Still, these Jaguars won 10 games last year, and their two regular-season losses came by a combined five points, including a one-point loss to UCLA at the end of regulation. The Jaguars ended the year at 10-3 and 7-1 in conference play, their lone Sun Belt loss coming at home against Troy. With head coach Kane Wommack returning for his third season, expect him to keep USA trending in the right direction.
South Alabama was one of the most statistically balanced teams in the Sun Belt last year. The Jaguars ranked 51st in yards per play (5.6), 39th in yards allowed per play (5.2) and 65th in the FEI. The Jaguars ran a balanced offense and ranked 60th in passing play percentage (48.7%). South Alabama ranked 14th in average time of possession (32:31), which forced opposing teams to pass on an FBS-high 58.1% of plays. The Jaguars may have ranked 92nd in passing yards allowed per game (249.7), but they also ranked an impressive 36th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.8). The stingy rushing defense also ranked 28th in line yards (2.46) and 18th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.5).
Almost everyone on this roster returns for another season, so South Alabama leads the Sun Belt in TARP. The Jaguars are net +8 with a +4.5 on offense and a +3.5 on defense. They are tied with Coastal for the best performance on offense and trail only ULM on defense. Quarterback Carter Bradley, a capable veteran game manager, returns after finishing 39th in passing efficiency last year with a grade of 146.7, good for the fourth-best performance in the Sun Belt. All leading receivers except Jalen Wayne, who ranked second in yardage but first in touchdowns, return. Replacing him are Jason Ivory (Memphis), a former three-star recruit, and Shamar Sandgren (Itawamba). The secondary also added La'Dareyen Craig (South Carolina) and Reggie Neely (Tulane), two three-star recruits. The Jaguars have a Sun Belt best nine preseason all-conference selections, including Bradley, Webb and several defenders.
The Jaguars don't have an easy schedule, but all of their games are winnable. They'll start the year at Tulane before hosting FCS Southeastern Louisiana. They'll then visit Oklahoma State and host Central Michigan to round out non-conference play. They should escape those games with at least two wins with three or four both possible but unlikely. Conference play brings interdivisional games at James Madison and against Marshall, neither of which will be easy. The Jaguars will travel to Troy this year but get to host Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Miss, Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State. However, getting to eight wins won't be easy with four hard road games against such a difficult road schedule. The price just isn't good enough for me to buy South Alabama now.
Troy Trojans Season Preview | 2023 Sun Belt Predictions
Sun Belt Odds: +300 at BetMGM
Win Total: 8.5 -110/-110 at BetMGM
After a rocky start, the Troy Trojans won every game from mid-September onward. The Trojans ended the year 12-2 and 7-1 in conference play, with their lone loss coming on an absurd hail mary by App State in Boone. Their only other loss was a Week 1 blowout at the hands of Ole Miss. Although Troy's record was impressive, six of their 11 wins came by one possession or fewer, and they ranked third in luck. They also got a layup win over an injured Grayson McCall in the Sun Belt title game. The Trojans couldn't have hoped for much more in head coach Jon Sumrall's first season at the helm, but he'll be hard-pressed to make improvements in Year 2 because of how high he set the bar in Year 1.
The Trojans weren't as dominant as their record suggests. Troy ranked 80th in yards per play (5.2), ninth in yards allowed per play (4.6) and 55th in the FEI. Their passing attack ranked 20th in yards per pass attempt (8.2), but that doesn't tell the full story: Troy also ranked 122nd in passing-down sack rate (13.1%) and 119th in sacks taken per game (3.4). Quarterback Gunnar Watson ranked 53rd in passing efficiency with a grade of 138.8 despite the pressure, but he lost leading receivers Tez Johnson and Rajae' Johnson-Sanders in the offseason.
The offseason went relatively well for Troy. The Trojans bolstered their line by adding a pair of Power Five interior offensive linemen, Colby Smith (Auburn) and Eli Russ (Oklahoma State). Smith was a four-star recruit out of high school while Russ was a three-star recruit. Those two helped Troy secure a +3.5 net TARP and a +3 offensive TARP. The defense ended up at +0.5 despite losing the NCAA's all-time leading tackler in linebacker Carlton Martial, largely because it retained several key weapons in the trenches, including defensive ends Richard Jibunor and T.J. Jackson, who led the team in sacks and tackles for loss last season.
The Trojans have a friendly schedule on tap this year. Troy opens the year by hosting FCS Stephen F. Austin. The Trojans will then visit Kansas State, which could go poorly, but it's too early to write them off just yet. The Trojans then host James Madison and Western Kentucky before wrapping up interdivisional play at Georgia State. Their final non-conference game is a trip to West Point. Troy will also get to host South Alabama and Louisiana-Lafayette, their primary challengers in the West. Most books have their win total set to 8.5 with the juice slightly favoring the over, which is an accurate estimation of their program and not a number I'm willing to buy.
2023 Sun Belt Preview Recap & Championship Pick
2023 Sun Belt Preview Recap
Sun Belt East
Old Dominion: Pass
Georgia State: Buy -- Over 5.5 +138 for 0.75 Units via FanDuel
Georgia Southern: Pass/Buy In-Season
Marshall: Pass
App State: Pass/Sell In-Season
James Madison: Sell -- Under 8.5 -130 for 1 Unit via BetMGM
Coastal Carolina: Buy -- Over 7.5 -122 for 1 Unit via FanDuel
Sun Belt West
Louisiana-Monroe: Pass
Arkansas State: Sell -- Under 4.5 +100 for 1 Unit via FanDuel
Texas State: Buy -- Over 4.5 +140 for 1 Unit via DraftKings
Southern Miss: Pass
Louisiana-Lafayette: Pass
South Alabama: Pass
Troy: Pass
Sun Belt Futures Odds: 2023 Conference Title
2023 Sun Belt Championship Pick: Coastal Carolina +500 for 0.25 Units
South Alabama and Troy sit atop the Sun Belt oddsboard. Coastal Carolina is a close third, then Marshall and App State round out the favorites. However, only one of Troy and South Alabama can actually go to the Sun Belt title game since both play in the West. I'm high on both of them, but there are compelling arguments on both sides for which team is better, so I have no desire to pay up to get action on just one of them.
The East Division is far more interesting. The team with the highest win total, James Madison, isn't eligible for the title game, which gives the field a better shot. The win total markets indicate more skepticism of App State than the conference title odds do. As a result, it's likely first-time head coach Tim Beck's division to lose, and we can buy Coastal at odds of +500 (16.7%) via BetMGM to win the Sun Belt in 2023.
This pick just comes down to efficient offensive play. Coastal quarterback Grayson McCall still holds the FBS single-season record in passing efficiency, and Beck should get the most out of his talented quarterback. Although he is new to the program and its players, he isn't new to football -- Beck is a 57-year-old former quarterback working as an FBS head coach for the first time. He'll listen to his players about what works in the Sun Belt, which, as the Chants have demonstrated over the last three seasons, they know a lot about.
