After a week off, the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers will head south to Baton Rouge, La. for a matchup against the No. 25 LSU Tigers this weekend. LSU just traveled to Auburn and nearly lost the Tiger Bowl if not for a miraculous three-score comeback. The sportsbooks expect a close battle between these teams, but they ultimately predict Tennessee to beat LSU by roughly a field goal.
This margin feels a bit too narrow. The undefeated Volunteers have won all of their games by at least five points, including an SEC East contest against Florida. While traveling to Death Valley can be difficult, the Volunteers have shown more than enough through four games to warrant more confidence than they’re getting.
Tennessee vs. LSU Week 6 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Tennessee vs. LSU Betting Odds
Volunteers Passing Offense is Unmatched
Josh Heupel's offense is rolling. The Volunteers rank sixth in yards per play (7.2) and third in yards per pass attempt (11.3). The Volunteers have such an efficient passing attack that the only teams above them, Army and Air Force, are run-first, triple-option programs that pass fewer than 12 times per game. The Volunteers own a full 1-yard advantage over the next-best passing offense, Ohio State. The offense ranks a steady 39th in turnovers per game (1.3) as well.
Quarterback Hendon Hooker deserves plenty of credit. He ranks sixth in passing efficiency and has completed 71.7% of his passes for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns. His success should come as no surprise -- Hooker finished third in passing efficiency last year and recorded the 24th-best season in the metric of all time. Hooker has succeeded despite missing star wide receiver Cedric Tillman over his last six quarters of play. Tillman has since returned to practice in a limited capacity, but even if the Volunteers don't get him back, speedster Jalin Hyatt and big-bodied wideout Bru McCoy have looked great in his absence.
Despite the offense getting the headlines, Tennessee's defense has also looked solid. The unit ranks 42nd in yards allowed per play (5.1), 20th in takeaways per game (2) and 15th in third-down conversion percentage allowed (28.3%). While the unit ranks just 50th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), the Volunteers have given up only 19 points per game and 7.8 points per first half. That said, the defense showed a degree of apathy late against Florida that allowed the Gators to score enough garbage-time points to cover.
Tigers Vulnerable on Offense, in Secondary
Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers haven't gotten off to the best of starts. After a Week 1 loss to Florida State, the Tigers needed late-game comebacks to beat Mississippi State and Auburn. The Tigers fell into a 13-point hole against the Bulldogs and a 17-point hole against the Tigers. Although the Tigers have shown enough resilience to stage comebacks, they have relied on turnovers to do so -- a muffed punt began the rally against Mississippi State, and a fumble-six began the rally against Auburn.
The stats reveal how poorly LSU's offense has played. The Tigers rank 70th in yards per play (5.4) and 91st in yards per pass attempt (9.1). Quarterback Jayden Daniels ranks 64th in passing efficiency and has completed 67.9% of his passes for only 915 yards and six scores. While the Tigers have minimized mistakes -- Daniels is yet to throw a pick, and the Tigers also rank 39th in giveaways per game (1.3) -- they still rank 69th in punts per play (0.9). For some perspective, Tennessee ranks third (0.3) in the metric, although Heupel's aggressive fourth-down play calling may account for some of that disparity. Still, LSU offense ranks a respectable 16th in the FEI.
The Tigers have relied on their defense to keep them in games. LSU's defense ranks an impressive 12th in the FEI and 25th in yards allowed per play (4.8). However, LSU ranks just 58th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1), which could prove problematic against Heupel's pass-heavy offense. LSU surrendered a 53- and 18-yard passing touchdowns against Auburn along with multiple chunk plays as Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford racked up 17.7 yards per completion. The Tigers have also lost key pieces in the secondary, with safety Major Burns just now returning to practice in a limited fashion and cornerback Sevyn Banks out with a spinal cord bruise.
Tennessee vs. LSU Prediction
The numbers say the Volunteers should win and cover against a beatable LSU team. However, Tennessee will head into Death Valley as a road favorite, and the Tigers are 5-2-1 against the spread and 5-3 straight up as road underdogs since 2018. With the spread up to -3 from the -2.5 it was at on Monday, backing the Vols to cover feels dicier than it was earlier in the week.
Instead, pouncing on the first-half spread feels sharper. The number sits between -0.5 and -1.5 depending on the book despite Tennessee's categorically better first-half offense. The Vols have scored the second-most points per first half (28.5) this year. LSU has routinely gotten out to slow starts and scored the 90th-most points per first half (10.3). The Vols may fall victim to a second-half comeback by the Tigers, especially with Alabama next on their schedule, but they should at least cover the tiny first-half spread.
Tennessee vs. LSU Prediction: Tennessee First Half -0.5 (-115) at DraftKings
