The San Diego State Aztecs, 2-3 (0-1), will play host to the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors, 1-4 (0-0), at the new Snapdragon Stadium. This will be Hawai’i’s first Mountain West conference game, while the Aztecs lost their first conference game by three touchdowns to Boise State last week.
San Diego State has a run-first offense that has struggled to score points. It has surpassed 20 points just once, and that was against 0-5 Idaho State from the FCS. Their other win was a defensive battle against Toledo where they blew a 10-0 lead only to come back and win the game on touchdown run with 41 seconds to go. The Rainbow Warriors also do not score much and avoided a winless season with a Week 4 victory over FCS Duquesne. They scored a season-high 26 points in a loss to New Mexico State last week.
The total for this game is 48, with San Diego State favored by 21.5.
Hawai’i vs. San Diego State Predictions & Week 6 Picks
Aztecs Running Game Will Punish Warriors
The Aztecs rank second in rushing in the Mountain West with 192.2 yards per game. They are led by senior Braxton Burmeister, who can run a bit but is more or less a game manager who’s been relieved multiple times this season. He has not attempted more than 26 passes in a game and has only eclipsed 65 yards passing one time – when he threw for 108 yards against Idaho State.
Head coach Brady Hoke uses a running back by committee that is led by senior Jordan Byrd, who has 285 yards on 42 carries and three touchdowns. There are four other running backs with 15 or more carries, including freshman Cam Davis, who has 27. The passing game is non-existent, but if they do need to throw, they’ll look towards Jesse Matthews, who leads the team with 10 receptions and 94 yards.
As bad as the Aztecs offense is, the Hawai’i defense may be even worse. They are allowing 480.6 total yards and 260.8 rushing, both worst in the Mountain West. They are rated the fifth-worst defense in all of college football and have only recorded three sacks on the season. San Diego State should be able to run the ball on this team purely because they have better athletes.
Hawai’i Hopes to Find a Pot of Gold with Schager
The Hawaii offense is a little better than their defense. Its 313.2 total yards a game rank seventh in the Mountain West. They have a balanced scheme and a competent quarterback in Brayden Schager, who has attempted 33 or more passes in three games. This offense is fresh since they didn’t play last week, so maybe there will be some big plays from one of the six players who have 11 or more receptions each. A team that spreads the ball around has options.
Dedrick Parson leads the rushing attack, with 266 yards and six touchdowns. He had a decent game against SEC opponent Vanderbilt, rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown back in Week 1, so there is some potential lurking for this offense. The San Diego State defense isn’t great on paper. They are allowing 404.6 total yards per game, which is seventh in the Mountain West. Toledo is more on par with the talent level of Hawai’i, and the Aztecs held them to only 14 points.
Hawai’i vs. San Diego State Prediction
Hawai’i is 2-3 against the spread, while San Diego State is 1-4 against the spread. These teams have combined to go 4-6-0 on the over/under in the 10 games they have played. The 21.5-point spread seems a bit risky given the lack of scoring potential in this one. With two bad teams, a lot of random stuff can happen. San Diego State will win, but a +1600 moneyline is worth some interest. The Aztecs will go to the ground and slow the pace down to hit the under.
NCAAF Best Bet: Under 48 (-105, DraftKings)
