The Mountain West looks horrible this season.
Utah State has been a big part of that. The Aggies are one of the worst teams in football.
Meanwhile, Air Force lost to Wyoming. But the Falcons are 4-1 with one of the more talented rosters in the league. They just don’t have a signature win.
This probably wouldn’t count as one. But all victories are worth the same at the end of the year.
The question is: Can the Falcons cover the spread as a big road favorite?
Air Force vs. Utah State College Football Week 6 Picks & Predictions
Air Force: What Success Rate Means
Success Rate is a key stat when it comes to the Falcons. It measures how often a team gets the necessary yardage to move the chains. That means 40% of the necessary yardage on first down, 75% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.
If you were to see Air Force ranked first overall in Rush Success Rate without knowing that meaning, you’d likely be unimpressed. The Falcons run the triple-option and pass less than 12% of the time, so they should be good at running the ball.
And they are. All they do is move the chains over and over and ground defenses into submission.
A lot of that is thanks to the offensive line. The Falcons got bigger there in the offseason and it’s paid off, as this is the sixth-rated line in the nation per Adjusted Line Yards. The unit knows its assignment on every play and the backfield has benefitted greatly because of that.
There are some problems defensively. The Falcons are fine at the point of attack but have been weak at tackling, in the red zone, and at defending the run. There’s work to be done, especially with the hardest part of their schedule yet to come.
Utah State: A Total Disaster
This is just hopeless.
Utah State’s only win this season was a Week 0 matchup with UConn (31-20). The Aggies are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS since.
They are rushing for 3.7 YPC and allowing 4.7. They’re passing for barely over 200 yards per game while allowing almost three passing touchdowns per game.
Starting quarterback Logan Bonner tossed six touchdowns with eight interceptions before a season-ending foot injury. Replacing him will be Cooper Legas, who has completed 26 of 48 with three interceptions.
During the offseason, the defense lost its top two linemen and top two linebackers while bringing back just two starting defensive backs. The results have been as anticipated.
Utah State has been good at creating havoc at the line of scrimmage on defense, but it doesn’t matter when the second or third levels can’t stop a nosebleed.
Good luck for the rest of the season, Blake Anderson.
Air Force vs. Utah State Pick
This is a no-brainer.
I am laying the points with Air Force, who should run all over this Utah State team and easily cruise to a 10-point win.
You can pass on the Falcons defense, but the Aggies don’t have a quarterback.
While Utah State has been fine on the defensive line, they likely crumble against a top-five unit. And Haaziq Daniels and Co. can eat in the second level.
I’d play this to almost two touchdowns.
Best NCAAF Bet: Air Force -10 (-110) at BetMGM | Buy to -13.5 (+120) at DraftKings
